predictions for Kansas State game

Happy Kansas Day, everyone.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know how often the schedulers have put a
Kansas versus Kansas State basketball game on Kansas Day?

Don't look now, but Kansas State is Sagarin's #1 team in the "Recent Games"
rating method.  Those four consecutive above-expectation performances against
Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, and Baylor have given the Wildcats a positive trend
and a positive mental toughness rating, though neither is statistically
significant.  Although they won their Challenge game against Georgia, they
did play a couple points below expectation.  Meanwhile, Kansas has been
playing below expectation more often than not, but mostly getting away with
it.  The trend and mental toughness statistics are both negative for Kansas
and statistically significant.  We saw a glimpse of what is possible in the
first half against Texas A&M.  Newman seems to have turned the corner, and
Vick may also be past his nadir.  Graham might be in another mild shooting
slump, while Svi has shown more consistency in his senior season than at
any other point in his college career.  Doke has been steadily improving,
except at the charity stripe.  De Sousa finally played some minutes without
fouling or turning the ball over, though it's still too early to consider
him an asset.  Lightfoot has been a pleasant surprise in recent games.
Garrett is an asset on defense, and might be learning where his offense is
likely to come from (and it's usually NOT going to come from behind the arc).
Cunliffe is an enigma; good energy, but not a high basketball IQ yet.  So
it's largely the same team that played Kansas State a couple weeks ago.

The various prognosticators are mixed on the outcome of this game.  Sagarin
Blue is the most optimistic, a 4.7 point win.  Sagarin Recent Games is the
most pessimistic, a 12.2 point loss.  Pomeroy gives Kansas the nod, Massey
does not.  The BPI favors Kansas, the trend analysis does not.  The average
is 0.63 points in favor of Kansas.  Prepare yourself for another nail biter.

At least this time Seven Overtimes has the venue correct.  But while predicting
that the home team will win by 4 points, the confidence that the home team will
win is only 39 percent.  Huh?  Isn't that backward?

According to the RPI, Temple has the #1 strength of schedule; Kansas is #2,
and close enough that a tough road game like today's could propel Kansas into
the #1 spot.  But Temple plays Wichita State in a few days, which will probably
give the #1 spot right back to them, but only temporarily, as Tulane, East
Carolina, and South Florida are up after that; Tulane is 12-8, while the other
two have losing records.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of them;
Kansas State attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven
key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them; Kansas State holds
opponents to fewer points per game and steals more balls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, six in conference plus Arizona State, and
the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us eight scores to compare:

KU  -10 ASU at home (-13 neutral court)
KSU  -2 ASU neutral ( -2 neutral court)
KU  -14 KSU on road (-11 neutral court)

KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KSU +16 ISU on road (+19 neutral court)
KU  -20 KSU on road (-17 neutral court)

KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KSU  -8 WVU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU  +16 KSU on road (+19 neutral court)

KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
KSU -16 TTU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)

KU   -5 OU  on road ( -2 neutral court)
KSU +18 OU  at home (+15 neutral court)
KU  -20 KSU on road (-17 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KSU  +5 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +2 KSU on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
KSU  +7 BU  on road (+10 neutral court)
KU  -13 KSU on road (-10 neutral court)

KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)

Six of the comparisons favor Kansas State, while only two favor Kansas.  The
average favors Kansas State by 7.4 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Barry Brown               guard
Leading scorer        Barry Brown               guard
Leading rebounder     Dean Wade                 forward
Most assists          Kamau Stokes              guard
Most steals           Barry Brown               guard
Most blocks           Makol Mawien              forward
Most turnovers        Barry Brown               guard
Most fouls            Makol Mawien              forward

Note that Kamau Stokes is out indefinitely with a foot injury.  He's been
averaging 13 points a game for the Wildcats.  That's almost 7 points more
than their sixth man, so his loss is a significant blow.  Also, James Love
did not play in the previous game due to the flu, and it's unknown whether
he's recovered enough to play today's game; on the other hand, he averages
only 2 minutes per game anyway, so no major loss there.  Nigel Shadd has
averaged 6 minutes per game, and he's out with a knee injury.

                                                          17-4           16-5     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +3.26    76   73               #  6   #  6     # 33   # 67 
Sagarin Predictor       +4.37    76   72      64.7     #  6   #  6     # 41   # 67 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +2.73    76   73               #  6   #  6     # 34   # 67 
Sagarin Recent Games   -12.15    68   80               # 21   #  6     #  1   # 67 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +4.00    75   71                                          
Sagarin Combo           +3.05    76   73               #  5   #  6     # 34   # 77
Sagarin Elo             +1.38    75   74               #  6   #  6     # 30   # 77
Sagarin Blue            +4.73    77   72               #  6   #  6     # 40   # 77
performance adjust      +4.55    77   72          
trend adjust            -1.91    73   75          
Massey                  -1.00    73   74      47.0     #  9   #  3     # 32   # 55 
Pomeroy                 +0.93    73   72               #  9   #  7     # 35   # 79
Greenfield              +1.50    74   73               #  6   #  4     # 38   # 41
Dunkel                  -1.00    70.5 71.5             # 12            # 36       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +2.00    74.5 72.5                                        
Real Time RPI           -2.00    77   79               #  7   #  3     # 49   #121 
Real Time GAMER         -2.00    77   79      45.8     #  7   #  3     # 49   #121 
Dolphin Predictive      +1.63    74   73      55.6     #  7   #  7     # 31   # 45
ESPN BPI                +4.10                 65.6     #  7   # 16     # 39   # 62
Seven Overtimes         -4.00    72   76      61.0     #  4   #  2     # 40   # 55
Whitlock                +2.48                          #  8   #  4     # 36   # 68       
DPPI                    +1.60    78.5 77      54.3     #  9   #  4     # 43   #107
Colley Matrix           +4.27                          #  6   #  2     # 37   # 82
CBN RPI                                                #  7   #  2     # 56   #141
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  1     # 35   # 77
common opponents        -7.38                    
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +0.63 +/- 4.08

Here is Kansas' season; all remaining games are projected wins, with the
toughest being the road game in Lubbock, which follows a pair of home
games against West Virginia and Oklahoma, a crucial three-game stretch.
The projected season record remains at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #221 Tennessee State             92  56   +27.31    +8.69
NEUT   # 14 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.55    -0.55
HOME   # 95 South Dakota State          98  64   +17.89   +16.11
HOME   #228 Texas Southern             114  71   +28.01   +14.99
HOME   #128 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +20.96   +22.04
HOME   #108 Toledo                      96  58   +19.12   +18.88
NEUT   # 44 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.58    +7.42
HOME   # 96 Washington                  65  74   +17.96   -26.96
HOME   # 35 Arizona State               85  95   +10.44   -20.44
AWAY   # 70 Nebraska                    73  72    +9.21    -8.21
HOME   #251 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.36   +15.64
AWAY   # 91 Stanford                    75  54   +11.17    +9.83
AWAY   # 33 Texas                       92  86    +3.91    +2.09
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  73  85    +7.08   -19.08
AWAY   # 22 TCU                         88  84    +2.53    +1.47
HOME   # 85 Iowa State                  83  78   +16.80   -11.80
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                73  72   +10.75    -9.75
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               71  66    -1.44    +6.44
HOME   # 36 Baylor                      70  67   +10.49    -7.49
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma                    80  85    +2.05    -7.05
HOME   # 30 Texas A&M                   79  68    +9.99    +1.01
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                          +4.37             0.647
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State                       +13.28             0.869
HOME   # 22 TCU                                   +8.91             0.787
AWAY   # 36 Baylor                                +4.11             0.634
AWAY   # 85 Iowa State                           +10.42             0.788
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +4.94             0.637
HOME   # 19 Oklahoma                              +8.43             0.754
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                            +0.70             0.522
HOME   # 33 Texas                                +10.29             0.814
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +6.90             0.720

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #321 American U.                 83  45   +26.65   +11.35
HOME   #308 Kansas City(UMKC)           72  51   +25.72    -4.72
HOME   #161 UC Irvine                   71  49   +15.70    +6.30
HOME   #328 Northern Arizona            80  58   +28.02    -6.02
NEUT   # 35 Arizona State               90  92    -0.31    -1.69
NEUT   #189 George Washington           67  59   +14.38    -6.38
HOME   #218 Oral Roberts                77  68   +19.63   -10.63
AWAY   # 75 Vanderbilt                  84  79    +2.04    +2.96
HOME   #330 USC Upstate                 86  49   +28.26    +8.74
NEUT   #118 Tulsa                       54  61    +9.23   -16.23
HOME   #260 SE Missouri State(SEMO)     89  71   +22.44    -4.44
AWAY   #153 Washington State            68  65    +8.50    -5.50
AWAY   # 85 Iowa State                  91  75    +2.86   +13.14
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               69  77    -2.62    -5.38
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  58  74    -6.86    -9.14
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State              86  82    +5.72    -1.72
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                      72  73   -10.75    +9.75
HOME   # 19 Oklahoma                    87  69    +0.87   +17.13
HOME   # 22 TCU                         73  68    +1.35    +3.65
AWAY   # 36 Baylor                      90  83    -3.45   +10.45
HOME   # 65 Georgia                     56  51    +7.12    -2.12
HOME   #  6 Kansas                                -4.37             0.353
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         -9.00             0.227
AWAY   # 33 Texas                                 -3.65             0.341
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                            -0.48             0.481
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State                        -0.66             0.472
HOME   # 85 Iowa State                            +9.24             0.806
HOME   # 33 Texas                                 +2.73             0.621
AWAY   # 19 Oklahoma                              -5.51             0.287
AWAY   # 22 TCU                                   -5.03             0.275
HOME   # 36 Baylor                                +2.93             0.621