We Should Beat K-State but it will be close

We are headed for the Octagon of Dumb where we won 24 in a row from 2/25/1985 through 2/19/2007. That is mind-boggling. Since that time we have gone 6-4 including winning the last 2. Those 6 wins have been by an average margin of 5.8 points and the 4 losses by an average of 8.4 points. In the last 10 years the average score in Manhattan between Kansas and Kansas St. is 71.8 to 71.8. No matter how you slice it, Manhattan has not been friendly to Kansas the last 10 years. In that span we have taken a No. 1 ranking to Manhattan once, a No. 2 ranking 3 times, a No. 3 ranking twice, and a 4, 7, 8 and 16 ranking. We have outranked K-State in all 10 games. The four losses have come when we were ranked 1,2,7 and 8. Twice we have played overtime games going 1-1 in those two games. Frank Martin was coach for 2 of the losses and Bruce Weber for the other 2 losses.

I have Kansas as a 1.6 point favorite with a 54% probability of winning.



For the season K-State has been on a slight up trend which could add 3 points to their total. ALso, they have performed slightly better against tougher teams adding 1 point. In Big 12 games Kansas St. seems to be on a hugely positive trend but it is statistically pretty irrelevant.




Kansas also has a slightly positive trend for Big 12 play but a negative trend for the season. The total trend adjustment (if you are inclined to do trend adjustments which I am not particularly inclined) would be around 4 points in K-State's favor. KU has performed relatively poorer against better competition. The total adjustment for mental toughness would amount to no more than 1 point in K-State's favor. So pretty much this game is a toss-up.

I think this may be the most important game remaining in the conference. Why? Because K-State is hot and just may be the best team in the Big 12 right now. That Diazza (sp?) guy is really good, and Wade poses a tough matchup for KU.
Am also worried that Self playing Devonte 40 minutes virtually every game is catching up to him. (I will try not to rant this year about Self playing his point guard to death!). A win in this environment would be huge. A loss will mean more than one game in the sense that it will give them a rocket boost for the rest of the year. Fingers crossed, but am not confident about this one at all.

Yep, I agree, probably their toughest game against their instate rival. On DeVonte, it sure seems as if Newman or even Garrett could run the offense for at least 2 possessions, to give him some rest, without the roof caving in! Up until now, that has not happened, unfortunately.

If we win, it should be a momentum builder.

If we lose....no bueno. First, it would put us in a tie with KSU. Worse, WVU will probably win in Ames on Wednesday, and OU certainly CAN beat Baylor in Norman, and Tech can certainly beat Texas at Tech. So a "worst case" scenario puts us in at tie for 4th behind those 3 with KSU at 5-4.

Hoping they come in hot like they did on Saturday. It would be nice to take the crowd out early and have them heading for the exits early.

Good story on tonight's game. Under Mega Matchup section, has stats from the game in AFH. Both teams were on fire offensively. IMHO, tonight's game will come down to who cools off. http://www2.kusports.com/news/2018/jan/29/gameday-breakdown-no-5-ku-basketball-kansas-state/?mens_basketball
Had heard that Stokes might be back tonight, but see no news today.

Totally agree with you Farmerhawk that they could at least spell Devonte by having Newman run point. That's actually a great idea.