predictions for Texas A&M game

If you look at common opponents, then Texas A&M would be favored to win this
game, considering how easily they handled West Virginia in the season opener.
But looking at the totality of results, Texas A&M actually has a stronger
negative trend than Kansas does.  Yes, their negative trend is partly due to
suspensions and injuries, whereas Kansas' negative trend persists despite the
additions of Cunliffe and De Sousa to a thin roster.  Still, all the other
prognosticators are picking Kansas to win by anywhere from 6.5 to 15 points.
Except Seven Overtimes.  Who once again has the venue wrong.  Seven Overtimes
has Texas A&M as the home team, and as a result is predicting a tie score of
74 to 74.  Yet for some bizarre reason, that doesn't translate into a 50-50
chance of the home team winning.  Rather, the home team (Texas A&M, according
to Seven Overtimes) only has a 33 percent chance of winning.  There is something
VERY screwy going on with Seven Overtimes.  Bashuk needs to get his act together,
or I'll drop his predictions from my summaries.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five; Texas A&M
grabs more total rebounds (they're the SEC's leading rebounding team), has a
higher offensive rebound percentage, and attempts more free throws per field
goal attempt.  Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
only two, namely steals per game and personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely West Virginia and Kentucky:

KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
A&M +22 WVU neutral (+23 neutral court)
KU  -12 A&M at home (-15 neutral court)

KU   +4 UK  neutral ( +4 neutral court)
A&M  -1 UK  on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   +5 A&M at home ( +2 neutral court)

The West Virginia comparison favors Texas A&M considerably, while the
Kentucky comparison favors Kansas marginally.  The average favors Texas
A&M by 3.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          DJ Hogg                   forward
Leading scorer        Tyler Davis               center
Leading rebounder     Robert Williams           forward
Most assists          Duane Wilson              guard
Most steals           Duane Wilson              guard
Most blocks           Robert Williams           forward
Most turnovers        Duane Wilson              guard
Most fouls            Tyler Davis               center

                                                          16-4            13-7     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Texas A&M
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +10.12    79   69               #  6   #  5     # 38   #  9 
Sagarin Predictor      +10.10    79   69      77.0     #  6   #  5     # 29   #  9 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.63    79   70               #  6   #  5     # 32   #  9 
Sagarin Recent Games   +14.12    81   67               # 19   #  5     #134   #  9 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +9.56    75   66                                          
Sagarin Combo          +12.84    81   68               #  5   #  7     # 38   #  9
Sagarin Elo            +15.26    82   67               #  4   #  7     # 44   #  9
Sagarin Blue           +10.07    79   69               #  6   #  7     # 27   #  9
performance adjust     +10.59    80   69          
trend adjust           +11.43    80   69          
Massey                  +7.00    74   67      75.0     #  9   #  3     # 43   #  9 
Pomeroy                 +7.32    74   67               #  9   #  6     # 33   #  8
Greenfield              +9.00    78   69               #  6   #  2     # 34   # 14
Dunkel                 +10.00    80   70               # 12            # 60       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50    74   68                                          
Real Time RPI          +13.00    85   72               #  7   #  4     # 41   #  7 
Real Time GAMER        +13.00    85   72      74.2     #  7   #  4     # 41   #  7 
Dolphin Predictive      +9.24    77   67      78.8     #  8   #  3     # 37   # 14
ESPN BPI               +13.20                 88.0     #  7   # 13     # 44   # 12
Seven Overtimes          0.00    74   74      67.0     #  6   #  2     # 45   # 25
Whitlock                +8.33                          #  8   #  3     # 34   #  7       
DPPI                    +7.20    76   69      72.3     #  9   #  4     # 39   #   
Colley Matrix          +10.45                          #  7   #  1     # 37   #  6
CBN RPI                                                #  8   #  3     # 34   # 16
LRMC                                                   # 10   #  1     # 28   #  8
common opponents        -3.50                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +9.3 +/- 4.2

Here is Kansas' season; every remaining game is a projected win, but the
projected season record remains at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #218 Tennessee State             92  56   +27.33    +8.67
NEUT   # 17 Kentucky                    65  61    +5.27    -1.27
HOME   # 93 South Dakota State          98  64   +17.59   +16.41
HOME   #224 Texas Southern             114  71   +27.63   +15.37
HOME   #127 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +20.72   +22.28
HOME   #114 Toledo                      96  58   +19.60   +18.40
NEUT   # 45 Syracuse                    76  60    +8.55    +7.45
HOME   #101 Washington                  65  74   +18.42   -27.42
HOME   # 38 Arizona State               85  95   +10.61   -20.61
AWAY   # 73 Nebraska                    73  72    +9.52    -8.52
HOME   #250 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.42   +15.58
AWAY   # 91 Stanford                    75  54   +10.98   +10.02
AWAY   # 35 Texas                       92  86    +4.05    +1.95
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  73  85    +7.20   -19.20
AWAY   # 18 TCU                         88  84    +2.22    +1.78
HOME   # 75 Iowa State                  83  78   +15.98   -10.98
HOME   # 39 Kansas State                73  72   +10.63    -9.63
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               71  66    -1.87    +6.87
HOME   # 27 Baylor                      70  67    +9.93    -6.93
AWAY   # 16 Oklahoma                    80  85    +1.78    -6.78
HOME   # 29 Texas A&M                            +10.10             0.770
AWAY   # 39 Kansas State                          +4.23             0.639
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma State                       +13.44             0.872
HOME   # 18 TCU                                   +8.62             0.775
AWAY   # 27 Baylor                                +3.53             0.613
AWAY   # 75 Iowa State                            +9.58             0.758
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +4.53             0.624
HOME   # 16 Oklahoma                              +8.18             0.747
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                            +0.80             0.524
HOME   # 35 Texas                                +10.45             0.802
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma State                        +7.04             0.724

Here is Texas A&M's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  8 West Virginia               88  65    -5.57   +28.57
HOME   #135 UC Santa Barbara            84  65   +14.67    +4.33
NEUT   # 53 Oklahoma State              72  55    +3.34   +13.66
NEUT   # 50 Penn State                  98  87    +3.00    +8.00
HOME   #270 Pepperdine                  81  65   +23.79    -7.79
AWAY   # 43 Southern California         75  59    -2.05   +18.05
HOME   #245 UTRGV                       78  60   +22.08    -4.08
NEUT   # 15 Arizona                     64  67    -2.23    -0.77
HOME   #295 Prairie View A&M            73  53   +25.36    -5.36
HOME   #336 Savannah State             113  66   +30.20   +16.80
HOME   # 90 Northern Kentucky           64  58   +10.45    -4.45
HOME   # 77 Buffalo                     89  73    +9.40    +6.60
AWAY   # 51 Alabama                     57  79    -0.01   -21.99
HOME   # 19 Florida                     66  83    +1.74   -18.74
HOME   # 64 LSU                         68  69    +7.94    -8.94
AWAY   # 17 Kentucky                    73  74    -4.83    +3.83
AWAY   # 32 Tennessee                   62  75    -3.07    -9.93
HOME   # 74 Mississippi                 71  69    +9.04    -7.04
HOME   # 44 Missouri                    60  49    +4.67    +6.33
AWAY   # 64 LSU                         65  77    +1.54   -13.54
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -10.10             0.230