Big 12 projection, Round 8

Texas' home win over Iowa State was less impressive than TCU's home win over West Virginia, which
allowed TCU to leapfrog Texas in the projected standings.  No other changes.

                      Init.  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  6  Kansas          13.09  12.47  12.93  12.83  12.85  13.52  13.69  13.07    6  2  @KSU (Mo)   KU  by  4.2  RW
#  7  West Virginia   11.22  12.11  12.57  12.79  12.44  11.80  12.29  11.66    5  3  @ISU (We)   WVU by  8.2  RW
# 13  Texas Tech      10.24  12.25  12.68  12.02  12.49  11.76  10.61  10.72    5  3   UT  (We)   TTU by  6.5
# 17  Oklahoma         9.97  10.97  10.50  11.17  11.46  10.53   9.88  10.60    5  3   BU  (Tu)   OU  by  5.0
# 39  Kansas State     6.82   7.23   6.82   7.05   7.17   8.05   8.63   9.46    5  3   KU  (Mo)   
# 20  TCU              8.93   9.09   8.78   8.46   8.06   8.41   7.88   8.58    3  5  @OSU (Tu)   TCU by  1.6  RW
# 36  Texas            8.92   8.89   8.30   8.68   8.04   8.77   8.09   8.37    4  4  @TTU (We)   
# 27  Baylor           9.34   7.61   8.25   8.06   7.15   7.57   7.47   6.58    2  6  @OU  (Tu)   
# 52  Oklahoma State   6.64   5.74   6.02   5.64   6.18   5.72   6.42   6.28    3  5   TCU (Tu)   
# 73  Iowa State       4.83   3.64   3.15   3.30   4.16   3.87   5.04   4.68    2  6   WVU (We)

The "Next Game" column refers to the next conference game.  On Saturday, every Big 12 team will
be participating in the Big 12 / SEC Challenge, with the following predictions:

KU  over Texas A&M      10.0  home win
WVU over Kentucky        7.2  home win
TTU over South Carolina  4.7  road win
OU  over Alabama         1.9  road win
KSU over Georgia         7.4  home win
TCU over Vanderbilt      4.7  road win
UT  over Mississippi     8.8  home win
BU  under FLorida        5.1  road loss
OSU under Arkansas       6.1  road loss
ISU under Tennessee      2.5  home loss

Yet another win by Seven Overtimes, this time no asterisk.  And it was enough to give Seven Overtimes
the season lead, but that comes with two asterisks.  However, even if you add 12 points to the total
for Seven Overtimes (a 3 point home court advantage means 6 points for a swap of venue, and he had
the venue wrong twice, making it a 12 point swing), he still has the lead.  Round 8 was a solid win
for Seven Overtimes, picking every winner correctly.

Predictions                                                                                          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
TTU over OSU  9.8  11.0  11.3   9.0  14.5  10.0  11.3   8.7  11.4  13.8   9.0  15.0  11.8  11.3   8.3
UT  over ISU  8.3   8.0   8.4   7.5  11.0   7.0   7.8   6.5   8.5   9.6   9.0  10.0  10.0   9.5  -0.2
BU  over KSU  4.7   5.0   3.1   4.5  -1.0   4.5   3.1  -0.7   2.1   4.6  -2.0   6.0   4.0   3.5   2.5
KU  over OU   2.3  -3.0  -0.4  -1.5   1.5  -1.5   0.1   1.4  -0.7   2.6  -4.0  -7.0   1.9   2.4  -2.8
WVU over TCU  1.6  -2.0   0.0   3.0  -1.0   1.0   1.4  -1.2  -0.4  -2.1  -5.0  -3.0   1.6   2.2   2.3

    Reality  Error                                                   1     5                 1     1
    -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        5     4.8   6.0   6.3   4.0   9.5   5.0   6.3   3.7   6.4   8.8   4.0  10.0   6.8   6.3   3.3
       16     7.7   8.0   7.6   8.5   5.0   9.0   8.2   9.5   7.5   6.4   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.5  16.2
       -7    11.7  12.0  10.1  11.5   6.0  11.5  10.1   6.3   9.1  11.6   5.0  13.0  11.0  10.5   9.5
       -5     7.3   2.0   4.6   3.5   6.5   3.5   5.1   6.4   4.3   7.6   1.0   2.0   6.9   7.4   2.2
       -9    10.6   7.0   9.0  12.0   8.0  10.0  10.4   7.8   8.6   6.9   4.0   6.0  10.6  11.2  11.3

total        42.1  35.0  37.6  39.5  35.0  39.0  40.1  33.7  35.9  41.3  21.0  37.0  41.3  41.9  42.5
previous    290.6 314.0 301.9 292.5 307.5 299.5 303.4 354.6 312.0 303.7 294.0 353.0 307.4 309.8 327.1
cumulative  332.7 349.0 339.5 332.0 342.5 338.5 343.5 388.3 347.9 345.0 315.0 390.0 348.7 351.7 369.6
per game      8.3   8.7   8.5   8.3   8.6   8.5   8.6   9.7   8.7   8.6   7.9   9.8   8.7   8.8   9.2

Only one road win in Round 8, and it wasn't one of the two projected to occur.  So we're
now under the long-term average of one-in-three.  However, three road wins are projected
for Round 9.

Road wins (11 out of 40)                     Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
3 Kansas         UT  TCU WVU                0 Oklahoma                          +2 Kansas        
2 Kansas State   ISU BU                     0 Texas Tech                        +1 Kansas State  
2 West Virginia  OSU KSU                    1 Kansas         TTU                +1 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma       TCU                        1 Kansas State   WVU                +1 Texas Tech    
1 TCU            BU                         1 Oklahoma State WVU                +1 West Virginia 
1 Texas          ISU                        1 Texas          KU                  0 Texas         
1 Texas Tech     KU                         1 West Virginia  WVU                -1 Oklahoma State
0 Baylor                                    2 Baylor         TCU KSU            -1 TCU           
0 Iowa State                                2 Iowa State     KSU UT             -2 Baylor        
0 Oklahoma State                            2 TCU            OU  KU             -2 Iowa State    

Kansas is having a hard time shedding those bottom-of-the-conference trend and mental toughness
ratings.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.68    TCU               7.86    
Oklahoma        +1.21    Oklahoma State    9.00    
TCU             +0.73    Kansas State      9.17    
Kansas          +0.66    Baylor           10.06    
Kansas State    +0.55    Oklahoma         10.17    
West Virginia   +0.46    Texas            10.17    
Oklahoma State  -0.08    Texas Tech       11.95    
Texas           -0.48    Iowa State       13.25    
Baylor          -0.49    Kansas           14.06    
Iowa State      -2.27    West Virginia    14.45    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Iowa State      +0.70 +/- 0.54    Iowa State      +0.41 +/- 0.23
Kansas State    +0.43 +/- 0.35    Kansas State    +0.13 +/- 0.17
TCU             +0.26 +/- 0.31    TCU             +0.06 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   +0.15 +/- 0.57    Oklahoma        +0.03 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        -0.01 +/- 0.44    Texas Tech      +0.01 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  -0.19 +/- 0.36    Texas           -0.05 +/- 0.19
Baylor          -0.24 +/- 0.43    Baylor          -0.06 +/- 0.17
Texas           -0.45 +/- 0.39    West Virginia   -0.10 +/- 0.26
Texas Tech      -0.64 +/- 0.45    Oklahoma State  -0.13 +/- 0.16
Kansas          -0.97 +/- 0.51    Kansas          -0.60 +/- 0.34

Kansas gets #28 Texas A&M at home, Texas gets #79 Mississippi at home, and Oklahoma gets
#50 Alabama on the road.  Will be interesting to see how those games affect the strength
of schedule rankings.  We have the strongest opponent, but are at home.  The difference
in strength between Texas A&M and Alabama is 3.3 points, whereas the home court advantage
is worth 3.2 points.  Might not be enough for Kansas to overtake Oklahoma.  However, after
the next conference game (Kansas at Kansas State, Oklahoma at home with Baylor), I would
expect Kansas to leapfrog Oklahoma in the strength of schedule standings.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        90.68   Texas Tech      62.95   Oklahoma        172.74   West Virginia   +14.10   
TCU             86.35   West Virginia   66.35   TCU             164.60   Texas Tech      +13.05   
Kansas          83.40   Texas           66.60   Kansas          154.55   Kansas          +12.25   
West Virginia   80.45   Kansas State    67.90   Oklahoma State  151.40   Kansas State     +8.95   
Oklahoma State  77.95   Baylor          68.21   Iowa State      147.84   Oklahoma         +8.63   
Kansas State    76.85   Kansas          71.15   West Virginia   146.80   TCU              +8.10   
Texas Tech      76.00   Oklahoma State  73.45   Kansas State    144.75   Baylor           +6.89   
Baylor          75.11   Iowa State      73.95   Baylor          143.32   Texas            +4.80   
Iowa State      73.89   TCU             78.25   Texas Tech      138.95   Oklahoma State   +4.50   
Texas           71.40   Oklahoma        82.05   Texas           138.00   Iowa State       -0.05   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Texas           80.31 ( 2)
Oklahoma        80.18 ( 4)
Kansas          79.84 ( 5)
TCU             78.05 (16)
Baylor          77.94 (17)
West Virginia   77.85 (21)
Iowa State      77.59 (23)
Oklahoma State  76.58 (42)
Texas Tech      76.39 (51)
Kansas State    75.75 (63)