predictions for Oklahoma game

TCU gave Kansas the gift that Texas could not.  Let's hope Kansas can capitalize
on that gift and defeat Oklahoma.

With Kansas, it has been "Live by the trey, die by the trey."  With Oklahoma, it
has been "Live by the Trae, die by the Trae."  Young had 48 points against
Oklahoma State, but the Sooners still managed to lose the game.  Young had 12
turnovers against Kansas State.  Oklahoma allows 82 points per game, the most
in the Big 12.  The Jayhawks should be able to score easily against the porous
Oklahoma defense.  And if the Jayhawks can defend Young the way they did Buddy
Hield, that should be enough to win the game.

Another point in Kansas' favor is how they've played above expectation in all
three conference road games.  By way of contrast, they've been below expectation
in all four conference home games.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four, namely
average score margin, assists per game, effective field goal percentage, and
turnover percentage.  Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in only three, namely opponents points per game, opponents effective
field goal percentage, and personal fouls per game; steals per game is a wash.

Common Opponents
================
There are five common opponents, Omaha plus four conference members, one of which
Oklahoma has already played twice, giving us six scores to compare:

KU  +43 Oma at home (+40 neutral court)
OU  +19 Oma at home (+16 neutral court)
KU  +21 OU  on road (+24 neutral court)

KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OU   +1 TCU on road ( +4 neutral court)     OU   +5 TCU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU    0 OU  on road ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +2 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU   +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
OU  -13 WVU on road (-10 neutral court)
KU  +15 OU  on road (+18 neutral court)

KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
OU  +10 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU  -25 OU  on road (-22 neutral court)

KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
OU  -18 KSU on road (-15 neutral court)
KU  +10 OU  on road (-13 neutral court)

Amazingly, four of the comparisons favor Kansas, one is a wash, and one favors
Oklahoma.  The average favors Kansas by 3.8 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Trae Young                guard
Leading scorer        Trae Young                guard
Leading rebounder     Khadeem Lattin            forward
Most assists          Trae Young                guard
Most steals           Trae Young                guard
Most blocks           Khadeem Lattin            forward
Most turnovers        Trae Young                guard
Most fouls            Khadeem Lattin            forward
most TV coverage      Trae Young                guard
most comp to Curry    Trae Young                guard
most ment by LeBron   Trae Young                guard
most tweets           Trae Young                guard
most treys            Trae Young                guard
most trae             Trae Young                guard

Center Jamuni McNeace has an ankle injury, but it is not known whether he will
play or not.  He's basically their eighth man.

                                                          16-3            14-4     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +2.53                          #  5   #  6     # 20   #  4 
Sagarin Predictor       +2.24   83   81      57.1      #  5   #  6     # 17   #  4 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +0.73                          #  6   #  6     # 18   #  4 
Sagarin Recent Games    +9.16                          #  3   #  6     # 71   #  4 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +2.11   88   86                                           
Sagarin Combo           +1.00                          #  4   #  8     # 13   #  9
Sagarin Elo             +0.82                          #  1   #  8     # 13   #  9
Sagarin Blue            +1.37                          #  5   #  8     # 17   #  9
performance adjust      +1.91                     
trend adjust            -2.78                     
Massey                  -3.00   85   88      39.0      #  6   #  3     # 18   #  6 
Pomeroy                 -0.35   78   78                #  8   #  9     # 20   #  6
Greenfield              -1.50   84.5 86                #  5   #  7     # 18   #  6
Dunkel                  +1.50   83   81                # 11            #  9       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -1.50   85   87                                           
Real Time RPI           -7.00   74   81      35.5      #  4   #  5     # 16   # 23 
Real Time GAMER         -7.00   74   81                #  4   #  5     # 16   # 23 
Dolphin Predictive      +0.07   86   86      50.2      #  8            # 21       
ESPN BPI                +2.60                58.5      #  7   # 22     # 28   #  8
Seven Overtimes         -4.00   80   84      40.0      #  5   #  4     # 30   # 59
Whitlock                -0.66                          #  7   #  3     # 17   # 15       
DPPI                    -2.30   79   82      38.7      #  9   #  4     # 18   # 13
Colley Matrix           +1.37                          #  3   #  3     # 17   # 19
CBN RPI                                                #  7   #  3     # 11   # 16
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  1     # 27   # 15
common opponents        +3.83                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +0.05 +/- 3.45

Here is Kansas' season; every remaining game is a projected win, but the
projected season record remains at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #229 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.15    +7.85
NEUT   # 19 Kentucky                    65  61    +5.50    -1.50
HOME   # 87 South Dakota State          98  64   +17.21   +16.79
HOME   #221 Texas Southern             114  71   +27.82   +15.18
HOME   #132 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +21.62   +21.38
HOME   #115 Toledo                      96  58   +19.91   +18.09
NEUT   # 46 Syracuse                    76  60    +9.17    +6.83
HOME   #102 Washington                  65  74   +18.63   -27.63
HOME   # 32 Arizona State               85  95   +10.51   -20.51
AWAY   # 73 Nebraska                    73  72    +9.82    -8.82
HOME   #248 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.34   +15.66
AWAY   # 95 Stanford                    75  54   +11.33    +9.67
AWAY   # 36 Texas                       92  86    +4.23    +1.77
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  73  85    +7.22   -19.22
AWAY   # 20 TCU                         88  84    +2.41    +1.59
HOME   # 72 Iowa State                  83  78   +16.20   -11.20
HOME   # 40 Kansas State                73  72   +10.86    -9.86
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia               71  66    -1.70    +6.70
HOME   # 29 Baylor                      70  67   +10.16    -7.16
AWAY   # 17 Oklahoma                              +2.24             0.571
HOME   # 28 Texas A&M                             +9.75             0.777
AWAY   # 40 Kansas State                          +4.46             0.645
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma State                       +13.84             0.875
HOME   # 20 TCU                                   +8.81             0.778
AWAY   # 29 Baylor                                +3.76             0.619
AWAY   # 72 Iowa State                            +9.80             0.758
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         +4.70             0.628
HOME   # 17 Oklahoma                              +8.64             0.755
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            +0.82             0.525
HOME   # 36 Texas                                +10.63             0.803
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma State                        +7.44             0.732

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #248 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          108  89   +23.90    -4.90
HOME   #164 Ball State                 108  69   +18.21   +20.79
NEUT   # 38 Arkansas                    83  92    +2.19   -11.19
NEUT   #267 Portland                    93  71   +22.36    -0.36
NEUT   # 49 Oregon                      90  80    +4.32    +5.68
HOME   #199 North Texas                 82  72   +21.04   -11.04
HOME   #204 UTSA                        97  85   +21.39    -9.39
NEUT   # 43 Southern California         85  83    +2.65    -0.65
AWAY   # 13 Wichita State               91  83    -4.53   +12.53
HOME   #341 Northwestern State         105  68   +33.72    +3.28
HOME   # 57 Northwestern               104  78    +8.69   +17.31
AWAY   # 20 TCU                         90  89    -3.03    +4.03
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma State             109  89    +8.40   +11.60
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia               76  89    -7.14    -5.86
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  75  65    +1.78    +8.22
HOME   # 20 TCU                        102  97    +3.37    +1.63
AWAY   # 40 Kansas State                69  87    -0.98   -17.02
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma State              81  83    +2.00    -4.00
HOME   #  5 Kansas                                -2.24             0.429
AWAY   # 50 Alabama                               +1.21             0.545
HOME   # 29 Baylor                                +4.72             0.678
AWAY   # 36 Texas                                 -1.21             0.453
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         -0.74             0.477
AWAY   # 72 Iowa State                            +4.36             0.640
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -4.62             0.341
HOME   # 36 Texas                                 +5.19             0.693
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                                -8.64             0.245
HOME   # 40 Kansas State                          +5.42             0.711
AWAY   # 29 Baylor                                -1.68             0.435
HOME   # 72 Iowa State                           +10.76             0.812