Big 12 projection, Round 7

Almost as good a round as a Jayhawk fan could hope for, as two of the other contenders lost.
As expected in the event of a Kansas State win over TCU, the Wildcats did indeed leapfrog
the Horned Frogs in the projected standings.  But not only did they leapfrog TCU, they also
leapfrogged Texas, who was humiliated in Morgantown.  Kansas State, who had been in eighth
place for much of the season, suddenly finds itself in the upper division.  No other changes
in the projected standings.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Kansas          13.09  13.61  12.47  12.93  12.83  12.85  13.52  13.69    6  1  @OU  (Tu)   KU  by  2.3  RW
#  7  West Virginia   11.22  11.61  12.11  12.57  12.79  12.44  11.80  12.29    5  2  @TCU (Mo)   WVU by  1.6  RW
# 12  Texas Tech      10.24  11.08  12.25  12.68  12.02  12.49  11.76  10.61    4  3   OSU (Tu)   TTU by  9.8
# 17  Oklahoma         9.97  10.47  10.97  10.50  11.17  11.46  10.53   9.88    4  3   KU  (Tu)   
# 42  Kansas State     6.82   7.76   7.23   6.82   7.05   7.17   8.05   8.63    4  3  @BU  (Mo)   
# 39  Texas            8.92   8.59   8.89   8.30   8.68   8.04   8.77   8.09    3  4   ISU (Mo)   UT  by  8.3
# 23  TCU              8.93   8.30   9.09   8.78   8.46   8.06   8.41   7.88    2  5   WVU (Mo)   
# 28  Baylor           9.34   8.35   7.61   8.25   8.06   7.15   7.57   7.47    2  5   KSU (Mo)   BU  by  4.7
# 54  Oklahoma State   6.64   6.22   5.74   6.02   5.64   6.18   5.72   6.42    3  4  @TTU (Tu)   
# 71  Iowa State       4.83   4.01   3.64   3.15   3.30   4.16   3.87   5.04    2  5  @UT  (Mo)

Three Big Monday games.  The other two are both on Tuesday.  No Wednesday games in Round 8.  The
league leaders are both on the road in what are projected to be close affairs.  Then again, TCU
is without Fisher, which may make life easier for West Virginia in Ft. Worth.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
TTU over OSU   9.8
UT  over ISU   8.3
BU  over KSU   4.7
KU  over OU    2.3
WVU over TCU   1.6

Yet another win by Seven Overtimes, yet another asterisk.  This time, Seven Overtimes had Baylor
as the home team.  If Seven Overtimes had gotten the venue right, the prediction would have been
more optimistic for Kansas.  So another clerical error gave Seven Overtimes the win.  Real Time
is the runner-up who should have gotten the win.  Sagarin retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over BU   10.2   8.0   8.4   9.0  12.0   9.0  10.6  15.6  10.7  12.5   2.0  19.0  11.7  11.2   8.3
WVU over UT    7.8   8.0   6.6   9.5  13.0   8.0   7.7   8.0   7.0  10.1   5.0  13.0   8.2   7.7   8.9
TTU over ISU   7.4   8.0  10.6   7.0   9.5   6.5  10.3   7.1  11.3   7.8   1.0   3.0  12.5  13.0   5.4
OU  over OSU   2.4   3.0   3.5   2.0   0.0   4.5   2.8   6.6   5.3   2.8   2.0  -2.0   3.9   4.4   4.7
KSU over TCU   0.8   2.0   1.1   2.0  -1.5   2.5   1.7  -3.0  -0.9   0.7   3.0   4.0   0.4  -0.1   0.8

     Reality  Error                                                   1     4                 1     1
     -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
         3     7.2   5.0   5.4   6.0   9.0   6.0   7.6  12.6   7.7   9.5   1.0  16.0   8.7   8.2   5.3
        35    27.2  27.0  28.4  25.5  22.0  27.0  27.3  27.0  28.0  24.9  30.0  22.0  26.8  27.3  26.1
       -18    25.4  26.0  28.6  25.0  27.5  24.5  28.3  25.1  29.3  25.8  19.0  21.0  30.5  31.0  23.4
        -2     4.4   5.0   5.5   4.0   2.0   6.5   4.8   8.6   7.3   4.8   4.0   0.0   5.9   6.4   6.7
         5     4.2   3.0   3.9   3.0   6.5   2.5   3.3   8.0   5.9   4.3   2.0   1.0   4.6   5.1   4.2

total         68.4  66.0  71.8  63.5  67.0  66.5  71.3  81.3  78.2  69.3  56.0  60.0  76.5  78.0  65.7
previous     222.2 248.0 230.1 229.0 240.5 233.0 232.1 273.3 233.8 234.4 238.0 293.0 230.9 231.8 261.4
cumulative   290.6 314.0 301.9 292.5 307.5 299.5 303.4 354.6 312.0 303.7 294.0 353.0 307.4 309.8 327.1
per game       8.3   9.0   8.6   8.4   8.8   8.6   8.7  10.1   8.9   8.7   8.4  10.1   8.8   8.9   9.3

Two road wins were projected for Round 7, but neither of them transpired.  So the road team was
8-2 in the first 10 games of the conference season, and since then has gone 2-23.  Two road wins
are projected for Round 8, but both are expected to be close games.  Let's hope Kansas can hang
a home loss on Oklahoma.

Road wins (10 out of 35)                     Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
3 Kansas         UT  TCU WVU                0 Oklahoma                          +2 Kansas        
2 West Virginia  OSU KSU                    0 Texas Tech                        +1 Oklahoma      
1 Kansas State   ISU                        1 Baylor         TCU                +1 Texas Tech    
1 Oklahoma       TCU                        1 Kansas         TTU                +1 West Virginia 
1 TCU            BU                         1 Kansas State   WVU                 0 Kansas State  
1 Texas          ISU                        1 Oklahoma State WVU                 0 Texas         
1 Texas Tech     KU                         1 Texas          KU                 -1 Baylor        
0 Baylor                                    1 West Virginia  WVU                -1 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State                                2 Iowa State     KSU UT             -1 TCU           
0 Oklahoma State                            2 TCU            OU  KU             -2 Iowa State    

West Virginia and Texas played 25 points from expectation, causing both of their inconsistency
values to jump, landing the Mountaineers in last place.  Kansas remains at the bottom of the
league in trend and mental toughness by wide margins.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +1.82    TCU               7.80    
Oklahoma        +1.14    Kansas State      9.07    
Kansas          +0.84    Oklahoma State    9.14    
West Virginia   +0.66    Baylor           10.06    
TCU             +0.62    Texas            10.26    
Kansas State    +0.40    Oklahoma         10.40    
Oklahoma State  -0.13    Texas Tech       12.19    
Baylor          -0.31    Iowa State       13.68    
Texas           -0.60    Kansas           14.36    
Iowa State      -2.30    West Virginia    14.52    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Iowa State      +0.92 +/- 0.60    Iowa State      +0.47 +/- 0.24
West Virginia   +0.35 +/- 0.62    Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    +0.31 +/- 0.38    Texas Tech      +0.02 +/- 0.22
TCU             +0.14 +/- 0.33    TCU             +0.01 +/- 0.19
Baylor          -0.08 +/- 0.47    Oklahoma         0.00 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        -0.14 +/- 0.49    Baylor          -0.04 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma State  -0.31 +/- 0.39    Texas           -0.04 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech      -0.63 +/- 0.50    West Virginia   -0.07 +/- 0.27
Texas           -0.65 +/- 0.41    Oklahoma State  -0.17 +/- 0.17
Kansas          -1.00 +/- 0.57    Kansas          -0.60 +/- 0.37

Iowa State managed to slip back into positive territory in scoring margin, after being
the first team to slip into negative territory.  I don't think I've seen that happen
before.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        91.11   Texas Tech      62.47   Oklahoma        173.17   West Virginia   +15.11   
TCU             86.68   West Virginia   65.63   TCU             165.11   Texas Tech      +13.68   
Kansas          83.47   Baylor          66.89   Kansas          154.00   Kansas          +12.95   
West Virginia   80.74   Texas           67.00   Oklahoma State  151.74   Oklahoma         +9.06   
Oklahoma State  78.26   Kansas State    67.21   Iowa State      148.83   Kansas State     +8.84   
Texas Tech      76.16   Kansas          70.53   West Virginia   146.37   TCU              +8.26   
Kansas State    76.05   Oklahoma State  73.47   Kansas State    143.26   Baylor           +7.89   
Baylor          74.78   Iowa State      74.11   Baylor          141.67   Oklahoma State   +4.79   
Iowa State      74.72   TCU             78.42   Texas Tech      138.63   Texas            +4.42   
Texas           71.42   Oklahoma        82.06   Texas           138.42   Iowa State       +0.61   

Schedule Strength 
-------------------------- 
Texas           80.67 ( 2) 
Oklahoma        79.38 ( 4) 
Kansas          79.20 ( 6) 
Baylor          77.58 (19) 
TCU             77.37 (23) 
West Virginia   76.93 (31) 
Iowa State      76.67 (36) 
Texas Tech      76.14 (50) 
Oklahoma State  75.60 (63)
Kansas State    74.82 (77)