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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Baylor game
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6 years 3 months ago #15628
by asteroid
Iowa State and Oklahoma State have given Kansas a huge gift. Now the Jayhawks
need to capitalize on that gift and defeat Baylor.
Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five; Baylor
grabs more total rebounds per game, has a higher offensive rebound precentage,
and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt. Among the seven key
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in only two, namely more steals per
game and fewer personal fouls per game.
Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, five conference members and Texas Southern:
KU +43 TxS at home (+40 neutral court)
BU +31 TxS at home (+28 neutral court)
KU +15 BU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
BU -24 TTU on road (-21 neutral court)
KU +9 BU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +4 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
BU -3 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +16 BU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU +6 UT on road ( +9 neutral court)
BU +9 UT at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +6 BU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU +5 WVU on road ( +8 neutral court)
BU -3 WVU on road ( 0 neutral court)
KU +11 BU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
BU -10 ISU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU +12 BU at ohme ( +9 neutral court)
All six comparisons favor Kansas by an average of 11.5 points.
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Manu Lecomte guard
Leading scorer Manu Lecomte guard
Leading rebounder Jo Acuil forward
Most assists Manu Lecomte guard
Most steals Jake Lindsey guard
Most blocks Jo Acuil forward
Most turnovers Jo Acuil forward
Most fouls Jo Acuil forward
Manu Lecomte is expected to play despite a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Billy
Preston is gone. Finally we have closure.
15-3 12-6
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Baylor
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +10.12 79 69 # 4 # 8 # 28 # 37
Sagarin Predictor +10.23 79 69 78.9 # 5 # 8 # 28 # 37
Sagarin Golden Mean +9.23 79 70 # 6 # 8 # 31 # 37
Sagarin Recent Games +11.96 80 68 # 3 # 8 # 39 # 37
Sagarin Off-Def Meth +11.80 77 65
Sagarin Combo +16.33 82 66 # 3 # 8 # 52 # 59
Sagarin Elo +20.35 84 64 # 1 # 8 # 70 # 59
Sagarin Blue +12.01 86 74 # 5 # 8 # 40 # 59
performance adjust +11.65 80 68
trend adjust +8.34 78 70
Massey +8.00 77 69 78 # 7 # 3 # 46 # 48
Pomeroy +8.38 75 66 # 10 # 9 # 39 # 58
Greenfield +9.00 76 67 # 5 # 3 # 33 # 22
Dunkel +12.00 75 63 # 11 # 36
Vegas (via Dunkel) +9.00 77 68
Real Time RPI +19.00 89 70 # 4 # 3 # 76 # 98
Real Time GAMER +19.00 89 70 83.8 # 4 # 3 # 76 # 98
Dolphin Predictive +10.62 78 67 81.8 # 8 # 43
ESPN BPI +12.50 87.5 # 7 # 15 # 38 # 20
Seven Overtimes +2.00 75 73 74 # 4 # 5 # 81 # 77
Whitlock +10.66 # 8 # 4 # 49 # 70
DPPI +8.50 74 66 77.2 # 9 # 4 # 41 # 59
Colley Matrix +15.55 # 4 # 3 # 77 # 76
CBN RPI # 7 # 3 # 89 #100
LRMC # 9 # 3 # 46 # 62
common opponents +11.50 80 68
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +11.6 +/- 4.1
Here is Kansas' season; the road game with Texas Tech remains a toss-up, while
the rest are projected wins. The projected season record remains at 24-7:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #219 Tennessee State 92 56 +27.83 +8.17
NEUT # 17 Kentucky 65 61 +5.57 -1.57
HOME # 92 South Dakota State 98 64 +18.04 +15.96
HOME #208 Texas Southern 114 71 +27.27 +15.73
HOME #133 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +21.77 +21.23
HOME #114 Toledo 96 58 +20.01 +17.99
NEUT # 45 Syracuse 76 60 +9.35 +6.65
HOME #107 Washington 65 74 +19.47 -28.47
HOME # 33 Arizona State 85 95 +10.66 -20.66
AWAY # 72 Nebraska 73 72 +10.27 -9.27
HOME #239 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 109 64 +29.36 +15.64
AWAY # 94 Stanford 75 54 +11.84 +9.16
AWAY # 27 Texas 92 86 +3.77 +2.23
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 73 85 +6.59 -18.59
AWAY # 20 TCU 88 84 +2.89 +1.11
HOME # 81 Iowa State 83 78 +17.21 -12.21
HOME # 42 Kansas State 73 72 +11.67 -10.67
AWAY # 10 West Virginia 71 66 -0.84 +5.84
HOME # 28 Baylor +10.23 0.789
AWAY # 16 Oklahoma +2.34 0.572
HOME # 31 Texas A&M +10.35 0.787
AWAY # 42 Kansas State +5.29 0.666
HOME # 55 Oklahoma State +14.27 0.876
HOME # 20 TCU +9.27 0.783
AWAY # 28 Baylor +3.85 0.619
AWAY # 81 Iowa State +10.83 0.786
HOME # 10 West Virginia +5.54 0.651
HOME # 16 Oklahoma +8.72 0.750
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech +0.21 0.507
HOME # 27 Texas +10.15 0.800
AWAY # 55 Oklahoma State +7.89 0.739
Here is Baylor's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #211 Central Arkansas 107 66 +20.36 +20.64
HOME #314 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi 70 46 +27.16 -3.16
HOME #342 Alcorn State 78 61 +32.23 -15.23
NEUT # 59 Wisconsin 70 65 +4.52 +0.48
NEUT # 13 Creighton 65 59 -2.73 +8.73
AWAY # 14 Xavier-Ohio 63 76 -5.82 -7.18
HOME # 12 Wichita State 62 69 +0.05 -7.05
HOME #209 Sam Houston State 84 56 +20.24 +7.76
Div2 Randall University 105 82
HOME #208 Texas Southern 99 68 +20.23 +10.77
HOME #337 Savannah State 118 86 +30.87 +1.13
HOME #309 Southern U. 80 60 +26.98 -6.98
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech 53 77 -6.83 -17.17
HOME # 20 TCU 78 81 +2.23 -5.23
HOME # 27 Texas 69 60 +3.11 +5.89
AWAY # 10 West Virginia 54 57 -7.88 +4.88
AWAY # 81 Iowa State 65 75 +3.79 -13.79
HOME # 55 Oklahoma State 76 60 +7.23 +8.77
AWAY # 5 Kansas -10.23 0.211
HOME # 42 Kansas State +4.63 0.681
AWAY # 18 Florida -4.58 0.334
AWAY # 16 Oklahoma -4.70 0.329
HOME # 81 Iowa State +10.17 0.812
AWAY # 55 Oklahoma State +0.85 0.534
HOME # 5 Kansas -3.85 0.381
AWAY # 27 Texas -3.27 0.366
HOME # 11 Texas Tech -0.45 0.483
HOME # 10 West Virginia -1.50 0.451
AWAY # 20 TCU -4.15 0.327
HOME # 16 Oklahoma +1.68 0.563
AWAY # 42 Kansas State -1.75 0.429
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk
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6 years 3 months ago #15629
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Closure, indeed. Time to focus on making the most of what we got.
Mahalo, asteroid!
Mahalo, asteroid!
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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