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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 6
- asteroid
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6 years 3 months ago #15576
by asteroid
About as good a round as a Jayhawk fan could hope for. All of the other contenders lost,
with one of those losses courtesy of the Jayhawks, which now stand as the only one-loss
team in the Big 12. They've opened a 1+ game lead in the projected standings. Texas Tech's
road loss to Texas is arguably worse than West Virginia's home loss to Kansas, so that
caused Tech to slip behind West Virginia into third place again. No other changes in the
projected standings. Texas' big home win bought them a little breathing room for fifth
place over TCU, whose road win over Iowa State was less big. Kansas State's big home win
over Oklahoma bought them a little breathing room for seventh place over Baylor.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 5 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 13.52 5 1 BU (Sa) KU by 10.2
# 10 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 11.80 4 2 UT (Sa) WVU by 7.7
# 11 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 11.76 4 2 @ISU (Sa) TTU by 7.4 RW
# 17 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 10.53 4 2 @OSU (Sa) OU by 2.3 RW
# 27 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 8.77 3 3 @WVU (Sa)
# 21 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 8.41 2 4 @KSU (Sa)
# 42 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 8.05 3 3 TCU (Sa) KSU by 0.7
# 28 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 7.57 2 4 @KU (Sa)
# 55 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 5.72 2 4 OU (Sa)
# 77 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 3.87 1 5 TTU (Sa)
Kansas State gets another home game over a team ahead of them in the standings, and it's effectively
a toss-up game. If the Wildcats win, they'll pick up close to a half win while TCU will lose close
to a half win, which would be enough for Kansas State to jump into sixth place in the projected
standings. Bedlam, Round 2, could also be interesting. Kansas is expected to have the easiest game
of Round 7.
Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over BU 10.2
WVU over UT 7.7
TTU over ISU 7.4
OU over OSU 2.3
KSU over TCU 0.7
Technically, Seven Overtimes took honors once again for best prognostications in Round 6. However,
one has to flag it with an asterisk, because Seven Overtimes had Kansas as the home team in the
game with West Virginia. If Seven Overtimes had gotten the venue right, the prediction would have
certainly been less optimistic for Kansas. So it's a clerical error that gave Seven Overtimes the
win. ESPN's BPI is the runner-up who should have gotten the win. But it was a bad round for
everybody; per-game averages jumped by around 2 points. Sagarin has taken over the season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
TCU over ISU 10.2 10.0 11.3 10.5 13.5 10.5 12.4 12.0 12.9 13.2 10.0 13.0 13.3 12.8 5.9
BU over OSU 6.4 6.0 5.3 6.0 3.0 6.0 5.0 0.2 4.1 7.0 3.0 8.0 5.8 5.3 5.7
WVU over KU 1.4 6.0 3.2 7.5 9.0 4.5 3.5 1.4 2.8 2.7 -6.0 9.0 0.8 0.4 9.9
OU over KSU 1.2 3.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 1.6 8.1 5.2 -0.4 3.0 1.0 3.0 3.5 4.1
TTU over UT 1.0 4.0 3.9 3.0 1.0 3.5 3.8 4.7 5.4 2.8 -5.0 1.0 4.1 4.6 5.4
Reality Error 1 3 1 1
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
23 12.8 13.0 11.7 12.5 9.5 12.5 10.6 11.0 10.1 9.8 13.0 10.0 9.7 10.2 17.1
16 9.6 10.0 10.7 10.0 13.0 10.0 11.0 15.8 11.9 9.0 13.0 8.0 10.2 10.7 10.3
-5 6.4 11.0 8.2 12.5 14.0 9.5 8.5 6.4 7.8 7.7 1.0 14.0 5.8 5.4 14.9
-18 19.2 21.0 20.0 21.0 19.0 21.0 19.6 26.1 23.2 17.6 21.0 19.0 21.0 21.5 22.1
-9 10.0 13.0 12.9 12.0 10.0 12.5 12.8 13.7 14.4 11.8 4.0 10.0 13.1 13.6 14.4
total 58.0 68.0 63.5 68.0 65.5 65.5 62.5 73.0 67.4 55.9 52.0 61.0 59.8 61.4 78.8
previous 164.2 180.0 166.6 161.0 175.0 167.5 169.6 200.3 166.4 178.5 186.0 232.0 171.1 170.4 182.6
cumulative 222.2 248.0 230.1 229.0 240.5 233.0 232.1 273.3 233.8 234.4 238.0 293.0 230.9 231.8 261.4
per game 8.9 9.9 9.2 9.2 9.6 9.3 9.3 10.9 9.4 9.4 9.5 11.7 9.2 9.3 10.5
Two road wins were projected for Round 6, but neither of them transpired. But there was a
road win, and it was good news for Jayhawk fans. So we're up to 10 road wins out of 30
games played, exactly on the long-term average of one in three. Two road wins are projected
for Round 7.
Road wins (10 out of 30) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
3 Kansas UT TCU WVU 0 Oklahoma +2 Kansas
2 West Virginia OSU KSU 0 Texas Tech +1 Oklahoma
1 Kansas State ISU 1 Baylor TCU +1 Texas Tech
1 Oklahoma TCU 1 Kansas TTU +1 West Virginia
1 TCU BU 1 Kansas State WVU 0 Kansas State
1 Texas ISU 1 Oklahoma State WVU 0 Texas
1 Texas Tech KU 1 Texas KU -1 Baylor
0 Baylor 1 West Virginia WVU -1 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State 2 Iowa State KSU UT -1 TCU
0 Oklahoma State 2 TCU OU KU -2 Iowa State
Kansas is still at the bottom of the conference in consistency, trend, and mental
toughness. Ouch.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +2.35 TCU 8.00
Oklahoma +1.31 Texas 8.63
Kansas +0.98 Kansas State 9.32
TCU +0.74 Oklahoma State 9.44
Kansas State +0.36 Baylor 10.36
West Virginia +0.21 Texas Tech 10.71
Oklahoma State -0.17 Oklahoma 10.89
Texas -0.17 Iowa State 12.42
Baylor -0.41 West Virginia 13.81
Iowa State -2.75 Kansas 14.71
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Iowa State +0.53 +/- 0.62 Iowa State +0.38 +/- 0.23
Kansas State +0.28 +/- 0.43 Texas +0.10 +/- 0.17
TCU +0.25 +/- 0.37 Texas Tech +0.09 +/- 0.20
West Virginia -0.05 +/- 0.65 Kansas State +0.08 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma -0.06 +/- 0.56 TCU +0.05 +/- 0.20
Texas Tech -0.26 +/- 0.50 Oklahoma +0.04 +/- 0.24
Baylor -0.27 +/- 0.53 Baylor -0.08 +/- 0.19
Texas -0.30 +/- 0.40 West Virginia -0.09 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma State -0.48 +/- 0.43 Oklahoma State -0.20 +/- 0.18
Kansas -1.04 +/- 0.64 Kansas -0.57 +/- 0.38
Everybody is now in the Top 100 in the strength of schedule department. Iowa State
is the first conference team to slip into negative territory in scoring margin.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points
--------------------- --------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 91.59 Texas Tech 62.17 Oklahoma 173.71
TCU 87.61 Texas 66.06 TCU 166.44
Kansas 84.33 West Virginia 66.33 Kansas 154.94
West Virginia 80.56 Baylor 66.82 Oklahoma State 151.06
Oklahoma State 78.11 Kansas State 67.06 Iowa State 150.41
Texas Tech 77.39 Kansas 70.61 West Virginia 146.89
Kansas State 76.33 Oklahoma State 72.94 Kansas State 143.39
Baylor 75.12 Iowa State 75.29 Baylor 141.94
Iowa State 75.12 TCU 78.83 Texas Tech 139.56
Texas 72.44 Oklahoma 82.12 Texas 138.50
Scoring Margin (pts) Schedule Strength
---------------------- --------------------------
Texas Tech +15.22 Texas 79.96 ( 4)
West Virginia +14.22 Oklahoma 79.05 ( 7)
Kansas +13.72 Kansas 78.87 ( 8)
Oklahoma +9.47 TCU 76.59 (32)
Kansas State +9.28 West Virginia 76.47 (36)
TCU +8.78 Baylor 76.43 (37)
Baylor +8.29 Iowa State 76.14 (43)
Texas +6.39 Texas Tech 75.33 (60)
Oklahoma State +5.17 Oklahoma State 74.86 (73)
Iowa State -0.18 Kansas State 74.02 (95)
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