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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for West Virginia game
- asteroid
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7 years 5 months ago #15376
by asteroid
The first Big Monday game of the season, and it's a big one indeed. It's
been a projected loss for Kansas for much of the season, and most of the
prognosticators agree that West Virginia will win by anywhere from 1 to 10
points. Except Seven Overtimes, who has Kansas winning by 6. Then again,
Seven Overtimes thinks Kansas is the home team. That's one reason why I
don't hold this particular prognosticator in high esteem. But hey, Kansas
is due for an above-expectation performance. Maybe De Sousa learned to
play faster over the weekend.
Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in only three,
namely points per game, assists per game, and effective field goal percentage.
Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage only three,
namely fewer personal fouls per game, more defensive rebounds per game, and
they hold opponents to a slightly lower effective field goal percentage.
Common Opponents
================
Both teams have played Kansas State and Texas Tech. The comparisons do not
favor Kansas.
KU +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU +8 KSU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU -16 WVU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
WVU -1 TTU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU -20 WVU on road (-17 neutral court)
The average favors West Virginia by 18 points. Like it was for the Kansas
State game, this is the most omnious of the various predictions. I'd be
happy if this game ends the same way as that game did.
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Jevon Carter guard
Leading scorer Esa Ahmad forward
Leading rebounder Sagaba Konate forward
Most assists Jevon Carter guard
Most steals Jevon Carter guard
Most blocks Sagaba Konate forward
Most turnovers Jevon Carter guard
Most fouls Daxter Miles Jr. guard
14-3 15-2
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall -2.31 75 77 # 4 # 13 # 8 # 54
Sagarin Predictor -1.35 75 77 46.3 # 5 # 13 # 9 # 54
Sagarin Golden Mean -3.67 74 78 # 8 # 13 # 6 # 54
Sagarin Recent Games -8.75 71 80 # 18 # 13 # 3 # 54
Sagarin Off-Def Meth -1.64 77 79
Sagarin Combo -4.61 74 78 # 8 # 11 # 6 # 57
Sagarin Elo -8.37 72 80 # 10 # 11 # 3 # 57
Sagarin Blue -1.02 75 76 # 7 # 11 # 10 # 57
performance adjust -0.84 75 76
trend adjust -9.87 71 81
Massey -6.00 75 81 30 # 15 # 6 # 5 # 24
Pomeroy -3.17 74 78 # 11 # 17 # 10 # 64
Greenfield -7.50 75 82 # 5 # 12 # 11 # 10
Dunkel -9.00 70 79 # 10 # 7
Vegas (via Dunkel) -4.50 77 81
Real Time RPI -9.00 75 84 # 8 # 6 # 14 # 81
Real Time GAMER -9.00 75 84 32.6 # 8 # 6 # 14 # 81
Dolphin Predictive -3.48 77 80 38.7 # 8 # 10
ESPN BPI -2.70 40.6 # 8 # 33 # 12 # 34
Seven Overtimes +6.00 79 73 64 # 3 # 10 # 22 # 50
Whitlock -2.80 # 11 # 7 # 15 # 52
DPPI -7.30 70 77 26.7 # 13 # 8 # 16 # 90
Colley Matrix -1.39 # 8 # 4 # 13 # 73
CBN RPI # 11 # 5 # 16 # 63
LRMC # 9 # 3 # 11 # 96
common opponents -18.00
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -5.0 +/- 4.6
Here is Kansas' season; the road game with West Virginia is a projected
loss, while the road game with Texas Tech is a toss-up. The projected
season record remains at 24-7:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #228 Tennessee State 92 56 +28.08 +7.92
NEUT # 17 Kentucky 65 61 +4.71 -0.71
HOME # 91 South Dakota State 98 64 +17.70 +16.30
HOME #206 Texas Southern 114 71 +26.73 +16.27
HOME #136 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +21.71 +21.29
HOME #126 Toledo 96 58 +21.19 +16.81
NEUT # 45 Syracuse 76 60 +9.02 +6.98
HOME #107 Washington 65 74 +19.15 -28.15
HOME # 29 Arizona State 85 95 +9.84 -19.84
AWAY # 82 Nebraska 73 72 +10.92 -9.92
HOME #243 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 109 64 +29.14 +15.86
AWAY #100 Stanford 75 54 +12.09 +8.91
AWAY # 32 Texas 92 86 +3.74 +2.26
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 73 85 +5.85 -17.85
AWAY # 24 TCU 88 84 +2.98 +1.02
HOME # 77 Iowa State 83 78 +16.33 -11.33
HOME # 44 Kansas State 73 72 +12.01 -11.01
AWAY # 9 West Virginia -1.35 0.463
HOME # 33 Baylor +10.20 0.788
AWAY # 15 Oklahoma +1.26 0.539
HOME # 28 Texas A&M +9.64 0.769
AWAY # 44 Kansas State +5.67 0.680
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State +13.40 0.859
HOME # 24 TCU +9.32 0.784
AWAY # 33 Baylor +3.86 0.619
AWAY # 77 Iowa State +9.99 0.766
HOME # 9 West Virginia +4.99 0.634
HOME # 15 Oklahoma +7.60 0.724
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech -0.49 0.485
HOME # 32 Texas +10.08 0.796
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State +7.06 0.715
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 28 Texas A&M 65 88 +4.65 -27.65
HOME #320 American U. 98 64 +32.92 +1.08
HOME #327 Morgan State 111 48 +33.72 +29.28
HOME #217 Long Beach State 91 62 +25.66 +3.34
NEUT #319 Marist 84 78 +29.39 -23.39
NEUT # 74 Central Florida(UCF) 83 45 +11.15 +26.85
NEUT # 38 Missouri 83 79 +5.83 -1.83
HOME #268 NJIT(New Jersey Tech) 102 69 +29.02 +3.98
HOME # 6 Virginia 68 61 +1.90 +5.10
AWAY #178 Pittsburgh 69 60 +16.36 -7.36
HOME #346 Coppin State 77 38 +39.90 -0.90
HOME #245 Fordham 86 69 +27.51 -10.51
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State 85 79 +5.24 +0.76
AWAY # 44 Kansas State 77 69 +3.85 +4.15
HOME # 15 Oklahoma 89 76 +5.78 +7.22
HOME # 33 Baylor 57 54 +8.38 -5.38
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech 71 72 -2.31 +1.31
HOME # 5 Kansas +1.35 0.537
HOME # 32 Texas +8.26 0.759
AWAY # 24 TCU +1.16 0.541
HOME # 17 Kentucky +6.06 0.727
AWAY # 77 Iowa State +8.17 0.729
HOME # 44 Kansas State +10.19 0.809
AWAY # 15 Oklahoma -0.56 0.482
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State +11.58 0.833
HOME # 24 TCU +7.50 0.745
AWAY # 5 Kansas -4.99 0.366
AWAY # 33 Baylor +2.04 0.566
HOME # 77 Iowa State +14.51 0.861
HOME # 11 Texas Tech +4.03 0.626
AWAY # 32 Texas +1.92 0.565
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- NotOstertag
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7 years 5 months ago #15380
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
When everyone expects you to lose, it can remove some of the pressure.
I'm sure that everyone here wants a W and so does the team. Nevertheless, if WVU does win, they'll only be "meeting expectations".
Last week, we were #12 and they were #2 (now #10 and #6/#7) in the polls. Number 2 beating number 10 isn't a court-storming opportunity (not that I'd put it past them). In many ways the pressure will be heavier on WVU not to screw up.
I do think we can win. It won't be easy and it's not likely, but it's not automatic for WVU either. It's a huge opportunity for our guys, and I hope they can take advantage of it. I kind of feel like this game is set up like our visit to UK last year and that turned out pretty good.
I'm sure that everyone here wants a W and so does the team. Nevertheless, if WVU does win, they'll only be "meeting expectations".
Last week, we were #12 and they were #2 (now #10 and #6/#7) in the polls. Number 2 beating number 10 isn't a court-storming opportunity (not that I'd put it past them). In many ways the pressure will be heavier on WVU not to screw up.
I do think we can win. It won't be easy and it's not likely, but it's not automatic for WVU either. It's a huge opportunity for our guys, and I hope they can take advantage of it. I kind of feel like this game is set up like our visit to UK last year and that turned out pretty good.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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7 years 5 months ago #15382
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Here’s to our guys making your vision a reality!
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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