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Big 12 projection, Round 5

  • asteroid
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7 years 5 months ago #15364 by asteroid
Texas Tech's win over West Virginia allowed the Red Raiders to reclaim second
place.  Although both Texas and TCU lost in heartbreaking fashion, Texas was
hurt slightly more and fell back into sixth place, ceding fifth place back to
TCU.  Baylor's poor showing in Ames coupled with Kansas State's strong showing
in Lawrence allowed the Wildcats to take over seventh place from the Bears.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Kansas          13.09  13.61  12.47  12.93  12.83  12.85    4  1  @WVU (Mo)   
# 11  Texas Tech      10.24  11.08  12.25  12.68  12.02  12.49    4  1  @UT  (We)   TTU by  1.1  RW
#  9  West Virginia   11.22  11.61  12.11  12.57  12.79  12.44    4  1   KU  (Mo)   WVU by  1.4
# 15  Oklahoma         9.97  10.47  10.97  10.50  11.17  11.46    4  1  @KSU (Tu)   OU  by  1.3  RW
# 29  Texas            8.92   8.59   8.89   8.30   8.68   8.04    2  3   TTU (We)   
# 21  TCU              8.93   8.30   9.09   8.78   8.46   8.06    1  4   ISU (We)   TCU by 10.2
# 44  Kansas State     6.82   7.76   7.23   6.82   7.05   7.17    2  3   OU  (Tu)   
# 33  Baylor           9.34   8.35   7.61   8.25   8.06   7.15    1  4   OSU (Mo)   BU  by  6.4
# 54  Oklahoma State   6.64   6.22   5.74   6.02   5.64   6.18    2  3  @BU  (Mo)   
# 75  Iowa State       4.83   4.01   3.64   3.15   3.30   4.16    1  4  @TCU (We)

Three nail-biters are projected for Round 6.  Finally TCU gets an easier opponent on their
home court.  Baylor hosting Oklahoma State could be closer than expected.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
TCU over ISU  10.2
BU  over OSU   6.4
WVU over KU    1.4
OU  over KSU   1.3
TTU over UT    1.1

Seven Overtimes once again took honors for best prognostications in Round 5, the first
two-time winner of the season.  Honorable mention to Colley.  Greenfield retains the
season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over KSU  13.0   9.0   9.8  12.0   7.5  12.5  12.3  12.1  11.6  13.6   6.0  16.0  14.3  13.8  10.7
OU  over TCU   4.9   7.0   5.6   6.0   7.5   6.0   6.8   5.5   6.3   4.1   5.0  13.0   6.2   5.7   7.1
BU  over ISU   4.2   4.0   4.4   2.5   6.0   2.5   4.2  -0.3   4.0   1.2  -4.0  -4.0   7.0   7.5   1.2
TTU over WVU   2.4   6.0   6.3   4.5   2.0   4.5   6.5   0.7   6.6   7.7   6.0   4.0   4.9   4.4   4.6
UT  over OSU   0.3  -3.0  -0.4  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -0.6  -0.5   0.1  -0.5   1.0  -7.0   0.1   0.6  -0.7

     Reality  Error                                                   1     2                 1     1
     -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
         1    12.0   8.0   8.8  11.0   6.5  11.5  11.3  11.1  10.6  12.6   5.0  15.0  13.3  12.8   9.7
         5     0.1   2.0   0.6   1.0   2.5   1.0   1.8   0.5   1.3   0.9   0.0   8.0   1.2   0.7   2.1
       -10    14.2  14.0  14.4  12.5  16.0  12.5  14.2   9.7  14.0  11.2   6.0   6.0  17.0  17.5  11.2
         1     1.4   5.0   5.3   3.5   1.0   3.5   5.5   0.3   5.6   6.7   5.0   3.0   3.9   3.4   3.6
        -1     1.3   2.0   0.6   1.0   4.0   1.0   0.4   0.5   1.1   0.5   2.0   6.0   1.1   1.6   0.3

total         29.0  31.0  29.7  29.0  30.0  29.5  33.2  22.1  32.6  31.9  18.0  38.0  36.5  36.0  26.9
previous     135.2 149.0 136.9 132.0 145.0 138.0 136.4 178.2 133.8 146.6 168.0 194.0 134.6 134.4 155.7
cumulative   164.2 180.0 166.6 161.0 175.0 167.5 169.6 200.3 166.4 178.5 186.0 232.0 171.1 170.4 182.6
per game       6.6   7.2   6.7   6.4   7.0   6.7   6.8   8.0   6.7   7.1   7.4   9.3   6.8   6.8   7.3

One road win was projected for Round 5, but it did not materialize in Ames.  The game in
Stillwater was a toss-up, but the Cowboys managed to prevail on a rebound tip-in with just
seconds remaining.  So we're edging ever closer to the historical one-in-three road win
rate.  Two road wins are projected for Round 6, but both have such small predicted margins,
they could go either way.

Road wins (9 out of 25)                     Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
2 Kansas         UT  TCU                    0 Oklahoma                          +2 West Virginia 
2 West Virginia  OSU KSU                    0 Texas Tech                        +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas State   ISU                        0 West Virginia                     +1 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma       TCU                        1 Baylor         TCU                +1 Texas Tech    
1 TCU            BU                         1 Kansas         TTU                 0 Kansas State  
1 Texas          ISU                        1 Kansas State   WVU                 0 Texas         
1 Texas Tech     KU                         1 Oklahoma State WVU                -1 Baylor        
0 Baylor                                    1 Texas          KU                 -1 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State                                2 Iowa State     KSU UT             -1 TCU           
0 Oklahoma State                            2 TCU            OU  KU             -2 Iowa State    

Kansas is still at the bottom of the conference in consistency, trend, and mental
toughness.  Ouch.  We're due for an above-expectation performance.  Monday would be
as good a time as any for it to happen.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +2.70    TCU               7.71    
Oklahoma        +1.86    Kansas State      8.46    
Kansas          +0.87    Texas             8.63    
TCU             +0.49    Oklahoma State    9.36    
West Virginia   +0.36    Baylor           10.10    
Kansas State    +0.05    Oklahoma         10.19    
Oklahoma State  -0.01    Texas Tech       10.60    
Texas           -0.31    Iowa State       12.58    
Baylor          -0.61    West Virginia    14.12    
Iowa State      -2.64    Kansas           14.89    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Iowa State      +0.84 +/- 0.67    Iowa State      +0.48 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma        +0.41 +/- 0.56    Texas Tech      +0.16 +/- 0.20
West Virginia   +0.09 +/- 0.72    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.22
TCU             +0.07 +/- 0.39    Texas           +0.07 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    -0.02 +/- 0.43    TCU             +0.06 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech      -0.05 +/- 0.54    Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma State  -0.38 +/- 0.47    West Virginia   -0.07 +/- 0.27
Baylor          -0.55 +/- 0.55    Baylor          -0.10 +/- 0.19
Texas           -0.57 +/- 0.42    Oklahoma State  -0.16 +/- 0.19
Kansas          -1.35 +/- 0.68    Kansas          -0.78 +/- 0.40

Kansas State is the lone holdout in the strength of schedule department; everybody else
has managed to land in the Top 100.  With the next two road games coming against West
Virginia and Oklahoma, Kansas will move into the Top 10 in strength of schedule, perhaps
surpassing Texas.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        92.88   Texas Tech      62.00   Oklahoma        174.81   Texas Tech      +16.41   
TCU             87.24   West Virginia   65.94   TCU             166.29   West Virginia   +15.59   
Kansas          85.00   Texas           66.41   Kansas          156.00   Kansas          +14.00   
West Virginia   81.53   Kansas State    66.82   Oklahoma State  151.94   Oklahoma        +10.94   
Oklahoma State  79.06   Baylor          67.12   Iowa State      149.25   Kansas State     +9.00   
Texas Tech      78.41   Kansas          71.00   West Virginia   147.47   TCU              +8.18   
Kansas State    75.82   Oklahoma State  72.88   Kansas State    142.65   Baylor           +8.06   
Baylor          75.19   Iowa State      74.12   Baylor          142.31   Texas            +6.47   
Iowa State      75.12   TCU             79.06   Texas Tech      140.41   Oklahoma State   +6.18   
Texas           72.88   Oklahoma        81.94   Texas           139.29   Iowa State       +1.00   

Schedule Strength 
--------------------------- 
Texas           79.48 (  5) 
Oklahoma        78.57 (  9) 
Kansas          77.94 ( 13) 
TCU             76.50 ( 28) 
Baylor          76.14 ( 35) 
West Virginia   75.35 ( 52) 
Iowa State      74.96 ( 65) 
Texas Tech      74.09 ( 88) 
Oklahoma State  73.86 ( 98)
Kansas State    73.20 (123)
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, Socalhawk, jaythawk1

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7 years 5 months ago #15372 by JRhawk
Is interesting the difference in your projections vs CorpusJayhawk's - I like the outcome you project, but fear that his is more accurate. KU has the only home loss among the four currently tied for first. Of course a big win for KU tonight would help a lot.

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7 years 5 months ago - 7 years 5 months ago #15377 by konza63
The "eye test" certainly would say this is the year KU sadly fails to win the league. And that would be beyond sad for the program and its fans, since #14 is right there, and so enticing...

The "tale of the tape" for me is just how badly we've played at home. It's almost as if all of the mystique and power of AFH has been put in a closet for this season. (Witness the brutal losses suffered there, which were so uncharacteristic, and so telling)

That said, perhaps the Phog reappeared in the final possessions of the hard-to-watch K-State win. And until proven otherwise, we have to believe that somehow, some way we will find a way. Every year doubts creep in, but we come through in the end - often helped by some mutual damage the other teams inflict on each other, along with some truly signature wins (the insane WVU win at Allen last year, which HawkErrant and I had the pleasure to witness together, is front of mind).

The skeptic in me says we just don't have the horses this year...but then, we've only now added DeSousa, who, if he does nothing else going forward but give us a slew of rebounds, some blocks, some fouls, and some massive girth in the lane, will be an improvement over what we've had (depth-wise) so far.

Fingers crossed, looking upward to the basketball gods in the hardwood heavens ... In the name of Naismith, we pray. :-)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 7 years 5 months ago by konza63.
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7 years 5 months ago #15384 by porthawk
Good post, Konza! Your second and third paragraphs really resonate with me, particularly this:

Every year doubts creep in, but we come through in the end - often helped by some mutual damage the other teams inflict on each other, along with some truly signature wins (the insane WVU win at Allen last year, which HawkErrant and I had the pleasure to witness together, is front of mind).


It's so true! Yes, there will be a year where KU does not win the Big 12 title, but until that point comes, I'm hoping what you said holds true (big KU wins and other teams beating up on each other)!
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