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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 5
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7 years 5 months ago #15364
by asteroid
Texas Tech's win over West Virginia allowed the Red Raiders to reclaim second
place. Although both Texas and TCU lost in heartbreaking fashion, Texas was
hurt slightly more and fell back into sixth place, ceding fifth place back to
TCU. Baylor's poor showing in Ames coupled with Kansas State's strong showing
in Lawrence allowed the Wildcats to take over seventh place from the Bears.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 5 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 12.83 12.85 4 1 @WVU (Mo)
# 11 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 12.02 12.49 4 1 @UT (We) TTU by 1.1 RW
# 9 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 12.79 12.44 4 1 KU (Mo) WVU by 1.4
# 15 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 11.17 11.46 4 1 @KSU (Tu) OU by 1.3 RW
# 29 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 8.68 8.04 2 3 TTU (We)
# 21 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 8.46 8.06 1 4 ISU (We) TCU by 10.2
# 44 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 7.05 7.17 2 3 OU (Tu)
# 33 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 8.06 7.15 1 4 OSU (Mo) BU by 6.4
# 54 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 5.64 6.18 2 3 @BU (Mo)
# 75 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 3.30 4.16 1 4 @TCU (We)
Three nail-biters are projected for Round 6. Finally TCU gets an easier opponent on their
home court. Baylor hosting Oklahoma State could be closer than expected.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
TCU over ISU 10.2
BU over OSU 6.4
WVU over KU 1.4
OU over KSU 1.3
TTU over UT 1.1
Seven Overtimes once again took honors for best prognostications in Round 5, the first
two-time winner of the season. Honorable mention to Colley. Greenfield retains the
season lead.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over KSU 13.0 9.0 9.8 12.0 7.5 12.5 12.3 12.1 11.6 13.6 6.0 16.0 14.3 13.8 10.7
OU over TCU 4.9 7.0 5.6 6.0 7.5 6.0 6.8 5.5 6.3 4.1 5.0 13.0 6.2 5.7 7.1
BU over ISU 4.2 4.0 4.4 2.5 6.0 2.5 4.2 -0.3 4.0 1.2 -4.0 -4.0 7.0 7.5 1.2
TTU over WVU 2.4 6.0 6.3 4.5 2.0 4.5 6.5 0.7 6.6 7.7 6.0 4.0 4.9 4.4 4.6
UT over OSU 0.3 -3.0 -0.4 -2.0 -5.0 -2.0 -0.6 -0.5 0.1 -0.5 1.0 -7.0 0.1 0.6 -0.7
Reality Error 1 2 1 1
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
1 12.0 8.0 8.8 11.0 6.5 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.6 12.6 5.0 15.0 13.3 12.8 9.7
5 0.1 2.0 0.6 1.0 2.5 1.0 1.8 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.0 8.0 1.2 0.7 2.1
-10 14.2 14.0 14.4 12.5 16.0 12.5 14.2 9.7 14.0 11.2 6.0 6.0 17.0 17.5 11.2
1 1.4 5.0 5.3 3.5 1.0 3.5 5.5 0.3 5.6 6.7 5.0 3.0 3.9 3.4 3.6
-1 1.3 2.0 0.6 1.0 4.0 1.0 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.5 2.0 6.0 1.1 1.6 0.3
total 29.0 31.0 29.7 29.0 30.0 29.5 33.2 22.1 32.6 31.9 18.0 38.0 36.5 36.0 26.9
previous 135.2 149.0 136.9 132.0 145.0 138.0 136.4 178.2 133.8 146.6 168.0 194.0 134.6 134.4 155.7
cumulative 164.2 180.0 166.6 161.0 175.0 167.5 169.6 200.3 166.4 178.5 186.0 232.0 171.1 170.4 182.6
per game 6.6 7.2 6.7 6.4 7.0 6.7 6.8 8.0 6.7 7.1 7.4 9.3 6.8 6.8 7.3
One road win was projected for Round 5, but it did not materialize in Ames. The game in
Stillwater was a toss-up, but the Cowboys managed to prevail on a rebound tip-in with just
seconds remaining. So we're edging ever closer to the historical one-in-three road win
rate. Two road wins are projected for Round 6, but both have such small predicted margins,
they could go either way.
Road wins (9 out of 25) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
2 Kansas UT TCU 0 Oklahoma +2 West Virginia
2 West Virginia OSU KSU 0 Texas Tech +1 Kansas
1 Kansas State ISU 0 West Virginia +1 Oklahoma
1 Oklahoma TCU 1 Baylor TCU +1 Texas Tech
1 TCU BU 1 Kansas TTU 0 Kansas State
1 Texas ISU 1 Kansas State WVU 0 Texas
1 Texas Tech KU 1 Oklahoma State WVU -1 Baylor
0 Baylor 1 Texas KU -1 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State 2 Iowa State KSU UT -1 TCU
0 Oklahoma State 2 TCU OU KU -2 Iowa State
Kansas is still at the bottom of the conference in consistency, trend, and mental
toughness. Ouch. We're due for an above-expectation performance. Monday would be
as good a time as any for it to happen.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +2.70 TCU 7.71
Oklahoma +1.86 Kansas State 8.46
Kansas +0.87 Texas 8.63
TCU +0.49 Oklahoma State 9.36
West Virginia +0.36 Baylor 10.10
Kansas State +0.05 Oklahoma 10.19
Oklahoma State -0.01 Texas Tech 10.60
Texas -0.31 Iowa State 12.58
Baylor -0.61 West Virginia 14.12
Iowa State -2.64 Kansas 14.89
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Iowa State +0.84 +/- 0.67 Iowa State +0.48 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma +0.41 +/- 0.56 Texas Tech +0.16 +/- 0.20
West Virginia +0.09 +/- 0.72 Oklahoma +0.14 +/- 0.22
TCU +0.07 +/- 0.39 Texas +0.07 +/- 0.17
Kansas State -0.02 +/- 0.43 TCU +0.06 +/- 0.19
Texas Tech -0.05 +/- 0.54 Kansas State +0.03 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma State -0.38 +/- 0.47 West Virginia -0.07 +/- 0.27
Baylor -0.55 +/- 0.55 Baylor -0.10 +/- 0.19
Texas -0.57 +/- 0.42 Oklahoma State -0.16 +/- 0.19
Kansas -1.35 +/- 0.68 Kansas -0.78 +/- 0.40
Kansas State is the lone holdout in the strength of schedule department; everybody else
has managed to land in the Top 100. With the next two road games coming against West
Virginia and Oklahoma, Kansas will move into the Top 10 in strength of schedule, perhaps
surpassing Texas.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 92.88 Texas Tech 62.00 Oklahoma 174.81 Texas Tech +16.41
TCU 87.24 West Virginia 65.94 TCU 166.29 West Virginia +15.59
Kansas 85.00 Texas 66.41 Kansas 156.00 Kansas +14.00
West Virginia 81.53 Kansas State 66.82 Oklahoma State 151.94 Oklahoma +10.94
Oklahoma State 79.06 Baylor 67.12 Iowa State 149.25 Kansas State +9.00
Texas Tech 78.41 Kansas 71.00 West Virginia 147.47 TCU +8.18
Kansas State 75.82 Oklahoma State 72.88 Kansas State 142.65 Baylor +8.06
Baylor 75.19 Iowa State 74.12 Baylor 142.31 Texas +6.47
Iowa State 75.12 TCU 79.06 Texas Tech 140.41 Oklahoma State +6.18
Texas 72.88 Oklahoma 81.94 Texas 139.29 Iowa State +1.00
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Texas 79.48 ( 5)
Oklahoma 78.57 ( 9)
Kansas 77.94 ( 13)
TCU 76.50 ( 28)
Baylor 76.14 ( 35)
West Virginia 75.35 ( 52)
Iowa State 74.96 ( 65)
Texas Tech 74.09 ( 88)
Oklahoma State 73.86 ( 98)
Kansas State 73.20 (123)
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, Socalhawk, jaythawk1
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- JRhawk
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7 years 5 months ago #15372
by JRhawk
Is interesting the difference in your projections vs CorpusJayhawk's - I like the outcome you project, but fear that his is more accurate. KU has the only home loss among the four currently tied for first. Of course a big win for KU tonight would help a lot.
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7 years 5 months ago - 7 years 5 months ago #15377
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
The "eye test" certainly would say this is the year KU sadly fails to win the league. And that would be beyond sad for the program and its fans, since #14 is right there, and so enticing...
The "tale of the tape" for me is just how badly we've played at home. It's almost as if all of the mystique and power of AFH has been put in a closet for this season. (Witness the brutal losses suffered there, which were so uncharacteristic, and so telling)
That said, perhaps the Phog reappeared in the final possessions of the hard-to-watch K-State win. And until proven otherwise, we have to believe that somehow, some way we will find a way. Every year doubts creep in, but we come through in the end - often helped by some mutual damage the other teams inflict on each other, along with some truly signature wins (the insane WVU win at Allen last year, which HawkErrant and I had the pleasure to witness together, is front of mind).
The skeptic in me says we just don't have the horses this year...but then, we've only now added DeSousa, who, if he does nothing else going forward but give us a slew of rebounds, some blocks, some fouls, and some massive girth in the lane, will be an improvement over what we've had (depth-wise) so far.
Fingers crossed, looking upward to the basketball gods in the hardwood heavens ... In the name of Naismith, we pray.
The "tale of the tape" for me is just how badly we've played at home. It's almost as if all of the mystique and power of AFH has been put in a closet for this season. (Witness the brutal losses suffered there, which were so uncharacteristic, and so telling)
That said, perhaps the Phog reappeared in the final possessions of the hard-to-watch K-State win. And until proven otherwise, we have to believe that somehow, some way we will find a way. Every year doubts creep in, but we come through in the end - often helped by some mutual damage the other teams inflict on each other, along with some truly signature wins (the insane WVU win at Allen last year, which HawkErrant and I had the pleasure to witness together, is front of mind).
The skeptic in me says we just don't have the horses this year...but then, we've only now added DeSousa, who, if he does nothing else going forward but give us a slew of rebounds, some blocks, some fouls, and some massive girth in the lane, will be an improvement over what we've had (depth-wise) so far.
Fingers crossed, looking upward to the basketball gods in the hardwood heavens ... In the name of Naismith, we pray.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 7 years 5 months ago by konza63.
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7 years 5 months ago #15384
by porthawk
Good post, Konza! Your second and third paragraphs really resonate with me, particularly this:
It's so true! Yes, there will be a year where KU does not win the Big 12 title, but until that point comes, I'm hoping what you said holds true (big KU wins and other teams beating up on each other)!
Every year doubts creep in, but we come through in the end - often helped by some mutual damage the other teams inflict on each other, along with some truly signature wins (the insane WVU win at Allen last year, which HawkErrant and I had the pleasure to witness together, is front of mind).
It's so true! Yes, there will be a year where KU does not win the Big 12 title, but until that point comes, I'm hoping what you said holds true (big KU wins and other teams beating up on each other)!
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