predictions for Kansas State game

I absolutely HATE these early tips.  The one silver lining is that because of
the early tip, I can watch the game live.  As soon as it's done, I head to the
airport.  Predictions range from a high of 16 points in favor of Kansas (courtesy
of Real Time, one of the less reliable prognosticators) down to 3 points in favor
of Kansas, courtesy of Sagarin Recent Games.  However, there is one considerably
more ominous prediction, courtesy of common opponents.  Kansas State did a better
job against Arizona State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech than Kansas did.  The average
predicts a 7 point loss by Kansas.  But the Wildcats are minus Stokes, while the
Jayhawks are plus De Sousa.

Did I mention that I HATE these early tips?

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six of them;
Kansas State has a higher offensive rebound percentage, and attempts more free
throws per field goal attempt.  Among the seven key defensive stats, Kansas has
the advantage in five of them; Kansas State holds opponents to fewer points per
game, and steals more balls per game.

Common Opponents
================
Both teams have played Arizona State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech.  The
comparisons do not favor Kansas.

KU  -10 ASU at home (-13 neutral court)
KSU  -2 ASU neutral ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -8 KSU at home (-11 neutral court)

KU   +5 ISU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KSU +16 ISU on road (+19 neutral court)
KU  -14 KSU at home (-17 neutral court)

KU  -12 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)
KSU -16 TTU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU   +1 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)

The average favors Kansas State by 7 points.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Barry Brown               guard
Leading scorer        Barry Brown               guard
Leading rebounder     Dean Wade                 forward
Most assists          Kamau Stokes              guard
Most steals           Barry Brown               guard
Most blocks           Makol Mawien              forward
Most turnovers        Barry Brown               guard
Most fouls            Makol Mawien              forward

Note that Kamau Stokes is out indefinitely with a foot injury.  He's been
averaging 13 points a game for the Wildcats.  That's 8 points more than their
sixth man, so his loss is a significant blow.

The latest word on Billy Preston is that there is no word as well as no
timetable.  However, Silvio De Sousa has been cleared to play.  That represents
a boost for Kansas.  How big a boost is uncertain.

Did I mention that I HATE these early tips?

                                                          13-3           12-4     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +11.85   81   69                #  4   # 12     # 45   #172 
Sagarin Predictor      +13.01   81   68       85.9     #  5   # 12     # 48   #172 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +10.99   80   69                #  8   # 12     # 46   #172 
Sagarin Recent Games    +2.81   76   73                # 24   # 12     # 22   #172 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +14.33   81   67                                           
Sagarin Combo          +13.02   81   68                #  8   # 15     # 48   #220
Sagarin Elo            +11.60   81   69                # 12   # 15     # 45   #220
Sagarin Blue           +15.23   82   67                #  5   # 15     # 54   #220
performance adjust     +14.33   82   68
trend adjust           +10.71   80   69
Massey                  +9.00   79   70       82       # 13   #  5     # 49   # 77 
Pomeroy                 +9.82   79   69                #  9   # 17     # 48   #209
Greenfield             +12.00   82   70                #  5   #  9     # 50   # 62
Dunkel                  +7.50   82   75                # 10            # 55       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +12.50   80   68                                           
Real Time RPI          +16.00   89   73                #  9   #  6     # 63   #200 
Real Time GAMER        +16.00   89   73       79.2     #  9   #  6     # 63   #200 
Dolphin Predictive     +12.25   81   69       84.8     #  8            # 54       
ESPN BPI               +13.60                 89.3     #  6   # 33     # 47   #131
Seven Overtimes         +6.00   78   72       67       #  3   # 14     # 44   # 85
Whitlock               +11.55                          # 10   #  4     # 57   #102       
DPPI                   +13.80   86   72       91.8     # 11   #  7     # 51   #152
Colley Matrix          +12.09                          #  9   #  3     # 57   #148
CBN RPI                                                # 12   #  8     # 95   #207
LRMC                                                   #  9   #  4     # 56   #141
common opponents        -7.00
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +11.0 +/- 4.9

Here is Kansas' season; the road game with West Virginia is a projected
loss, while the road game with Texas Tech is a toss-up.  The projected
season record remains at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #223 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.08    +7.92
NEUT   # 17 Kentucky                    65  61    +5.22    -1.22
HOME   # 91 South Dakota State          98  64   +18.49   +15.51
HOME   #200 Texas Southern             114  71   +26.76   +16.24
HOME   #137 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.17   +20.83
HOME   #135 Toledo                      96  58   +22.11   +15.89
NEUT   # 45 Syracuse                    76  60    +9.32    +6.68
HOME   # 97 Washington                  65  74   +19.08   -28.08
HOME   # 26 Arizona State               85  95    +9.96   -19.96
AWAY   # 84 Nebraska                    73  72   +11.31   -10.31
HOME   #245 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +29.62   +15.38
AWAY   #102 Stanford                    75  54   +13.03    +7.97
AWAY   # 30 Texas                       92  86    +4.03    +1.97
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                  73  85    +6.28   -18.28
AWAY   # 23 TCU                         88  84    +3.24    +0.76
HOME   # 81 Iowa State                  83  78   +17.47   -12.47
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                         +13.01             0.859
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia                         -0.88             0.476
HOME   # 28 Baylor                               +10.09             0.785
AWAY   # 14 Oklahoma                              +1.57             0.548
HOME   # 24 Texas A&M                             +9.71             0.770
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          +6.63             0.708
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma State                       +13.94             0.866
HOME   # 23 TCU                                   +9.62             0.789
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                                +3.71             0.614
AWAY   # 81 Iowa State                           +11.09             0.791
HOME   #  9 West Virginia                         +5.50             0.645
HOME   # 14 Oklahoma                              +7.95             0.730
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            -0.10             0.497
HOME   # 30 Texas                                +10.41             0.801
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma State                        +7.56             0.726

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #319 American U.                 83  45   +25.31   +12.69
HOME   #307 Kansas City(UMKC)           72  51   +23.84    -2.84
HOME   #180 UC Irvine                   71  49   +15.27    +6.73
HOME   #333 Northern Arizona            80  58   +27.38    -5.38
NEUT   # 26 Arizona State               90  92    -3.05    +1.05
NEUT   #183 George Washington           67  59   +12.27    -4.27
HOME   #201 Oral Roberts                77  68   +16.95    -7.95
AWAY   # 75 Vanderbilt                  84  79    +0.69    +4.31
HOME   #320 USC Upstate                 86  49   +25.33   +11.67
NEUT   #126 Tulsa                       54  61    +8.53   -15.53
HOME   #269 SE Missouri State(SEMO)     89  71   +21.31    -3.31
AWAY   #159 Washington State            68  65    +7.26    -4.26
AWAY   # 81 Iowa State                  91  75    +1.27   +14.73
HOME   #  9 West Virginia               69  77    -4.32    -3.68
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                  58  74    -9.92    -6.08
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma State              86  82    +4.12    -0.12
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                               -13.01             0.141
HOME   # 14 Oklahoma                              -1.87             0.422
HOME   # 23 TCU                                   -0.20             0.490
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                                -6.11             0.253
HOME   # 57 Georgia                               +4.98             0.696
HOME   #  5 Kansas                                -6.63             0.292
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia                        -10.70             0.182
AWAY   # 30 Texas                                 -5.79             0.250
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            -3.54             0.358
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma State                        -2.26             0.401
HOME   # 81 Iowa State                            +7.65             0.768
HOME   # 30 Texas                                 +0.59             0.527
AWAY   # 14 Oklahoma                              -8.25             0.193
AWAY   # 23 TCU                                   -6.58             0.207
HOME   # 28 Baylor                                +0.27             0.512