Big 12 projection, Round 4

Texas Tech's loss in Norman dropped the Red Raiders into third place behind
West Virginia, whose home win over Baylor allowed the Mountaineers to move
into second place.  Although Kansas picked up 0.09 of a win by actually
defeating Iowa State, the below-expectation performance cost the Jayhawks
enough in the ratings to lose even more than they gained, but not enough to
slip into second place, as West Virginia's own below-expectation performance
also cost them in the ratings.  Meanwhile, Texas' win over TCU allowed the
Longhorns to leapfrog the Horned Frogs into fifth place.  No other changes
in the projected standings.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Kansas          13.09  13.61  12.47  12.93  12.83    3  1   KSU (Sa)   KU  by 12.9
#  8  West Virginia   11.22  11.61  12.11  12.57  12.79    4  0  @TTU (Sa)   
# 11  Texas Tech      10.24  11.08  12.25  12.68  12.02    3  1   WVU (Sa)   TTU by  2.4
# 14  Oklahoma         9.97  10.47  10.97  10.50  11.17    3  1   TCU (Sa)   OU  by  4.9
# 30  Texas            8.92   8.59   8.89   8.30   8.68    2  2  @OSU (Sa)   UT  by  0.3  toss-up
# 25  TCU              8.93   8.30   9.09   8.78   8.46    1  3  @OU  (Sa)   
# 28  Baylor           9.34   8.35   7.61   8.25   8.06    1  3  @ISU (Sa)   BU  by  4.0  p rd win
# 47  Kansas State     6.82   7.76   7.23   6.82   7.05    2  2  @KU  (Sa)   
# 55  Oklahoma State   6.64   6.22   5.74   6.02   5.64    1  3   UT  (Sa)   
# 80  Iowa State       4.83   4.01   3.64   3.15   3.30    0  4   BU  (Sa)

What is this?  TCU playing Oklahoma AGAIN?  And it's only the fifth game of the conference
season?  Why can't the schedulers complete one round before starting the second?  It was a
one-point game in Ft. Worth.  Can the Horned Frogs return the "favor" and take down the
Sooners in Norman?  It would help the Jayhawks for the Sooners to take a loss.  But the
most important game of the round has the Mountaineers in Lubbock.  Ideally, we'd like both
to lose, but that's not possible, so I guess for the moment it's more important for the
Mountaineers to take a loss.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over KSU  12.9   9.0  10.1                    12.0  12.5  12.1  13.5   6.0  16.0
OU  over TCU   4.9   7.0   4.8                     7.0   2.6   4.8   4.1   5.0  13.0
BU  over ISU   4.0   4.0   4.3                     3.8   0.0   4.3   0.9  -4.0  -5.0
TTU over WVU   2.4   6.0   6.4                     6.5   2.7   7.5   7.6   6.0   5.0
UT  over OSU   0.3  -3.0  -0.4                    -0.7  -3.8  -0.9  -0.6   1.0  -7.0

Sort of along the lines of "live by the three, die by the three", Seven Overtimes took honors
for best prognostications in Round 4, with honorable mention going to Dunkel.  Most of the
time, however, Seven Overtimes is among the worst of the prognosticators.  Real Time turned in
the worst performance.  Greenfield now has the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over ISU  18.5  14.0  16.5  16.0  12.5  16.0  21.1  14.5  18.0  20.0   9.0  20.0  23.5  23.0  14.7
WVU over BU    8.3   9.0   7.7   9.5   6.0   9.0  10.1  11.7   9.1  11.3   1.0  18.0   9.3   8.8  12.5
KSU over OSU   4.3   4.0   4.5   3.0   3.0   4.5   4.9   1.4   3.5   5.9   6.0  10.0   4.2   3.6   5.6
UT  over TCU   2.7   1.0   1.6   1.5   5.0   1.5   2.4  -5.5  -0.7   1.2   5.0   5.0   1.8   1.2  -1.9
OU  over TTU   0.8  -2.0  -1.7   2.0   6.0   3.0  -1.9   3.3  -1.1  -1.4   6.0  11.0  -0.7  -1.2  -1.6

     Reality  Error                                                   1     1                 1     1
     -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
         5    13.5   9.0  11.5  11.0   7.5  11.0  16.1   9.5  13.0  15.0   4.0  15.0  18.5  18.0   9.7
         3     5.3   6.0   4.7   6.5   3.0   6.0   7.1   8.7   6.1   8.3   2.0  15.0   6.3   5.8   9.5
         4     0.3   0.0   0.5   1.0   1.0   0.5   0.9   2.6   0.5   1.9   2.0   6.0   0.2   0.4   1.6
         1     1.7   0.0   0.6   0.5   4.0   0.5   1.4   6.5   1.7   0.2   4.0   4.0   0.8   0.2   2.9
        10     9.2  12.0  11.7   8.0   4.0   7.0  11.9   6.7  11.1  11.4   4.0   1.0  10.7  11.2  11.6

total         30.0  27.0  29.0  27.0  19.5  25.0  37.4  34.0  32.4  36.8  16.0  41.0  36.5  35.6  35.3
previous     105.2 122.0 107.9 105.0 125.5 113.0  99.0 144.2 101.4 109.8 152.0 153.0  98.1  98.8 120.4
cumulative   135.2 149.0 136.9 132.0 145.0 138.0 136.4 178.2 133.8 146.6 168.0 194.0 134.6 134.4 155.7
per game       6.8   7.4   6.8   6.6   7.3   6.9   6.8   8.9   6.7   7.3   8.4   9.7   6.7   6.7   7.8

No road wins were projected for Round 4, and none occurred, so what had been an 80 percent
road win rate is now down to 45 percent, much closer to the expected 33 percent.  Only one
road win is projected for Round 5, with a toss-up game in Stillwater.

Road wins (9 out of 20)                     Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
2 Kansas         UT  TCU                    0 Oklahoma                          +2 West Virginia 
2 West Virginia  OSU KSU                    0 Texas Tech                        +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas State   ISU                        0 West Virginia                     +1 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma       TCU                        1 Baylor         TCU                +1 Texas Tech    
1 TCU            BU                         1 Kansas         TTU                 0 Kansas State  
1 Texas          ISU                        1 Kansas State   WVU                 0 Texas         
1 Texas Tech     KU                         1 Oklahoma State WVU                -1 Baylor        
0 Baylor                                    1 Texas          KU                 -1 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State                                2 Iowa State     KSU UT             -1 TCU           
0 Oklahoma State                            2 TCU            OU  KU             -2 Iowa State    

Kansas is still at the bottom of the conference in consistency, trend, and mental
toughness.  Ouch.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +2.90    TCU               7.80    
Oklahoma        +1.99    Kansas State      8.11    
Kansas          +1.15    Texas             8.94    
TCU             +0.65    Oklahoma State    9.60    
West Virginia   +0.40    Baylor           10.05    
Oklahoma State  -0.01    Oklahoma         10.53    
Kansas State    -0.08    Texas Tech       10.92    
Texas           -0.24    Iowa State       12.22    
Baylor          -0.36    West Virginia    14.54    
Iowa State      -3.05    Kansas           14.91    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Iowa State      +0.56 +/- 0.74    Iowa State      +0.43 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma        +0.55 +/- 0.64    Texas Tech      +0.20 +/- 0.21
TCU             +0.11 +/- 0.44    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.24
West Virginia   +0.10 +/- 0.82    Texas           +0.06 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech      +0.03 +/- 0.61    TCU             +0.05 +/- 0.21
Baylor          -0.31 +/- 0.62    Baylor          -0.06 +/- 0.19
Kansas State    -0.32 +/- 0.45    West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 0.30
Oklahoma State  -0.53 +/- 0.52    Kansas State    -0.10 +/- 0.18
Texas           -0.69 +/- 0.47    Oklahoma State  -0.18 +/- 0.19
Kansas          -1.36 +/- 0.75    Kansas          -0.76 +/- 0.40

As expected, all conference members are now out of the 200s in strength of schedule, and
seven members are in the Top 100.  With Kansas State traveling to Lawrence and Texas Tech
hosting West Virginia, the two teams at the bottom will be poised to rise significantly.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        92.40   Texas Tech      61.31   Oklahoma        173.20   Texas Tech      +17.63   
TCU             86.50   West Virginia   65.69   TCU             164.25   West Virginia   +16.38   
Kansas          85.88   Kansas State    66.56   Kansas          156.69   Kansas          +15.06   
West Virginia   82.06   Texas           66.63   Oklahoma State  153.38   Oklahoma        +11.60   
Oklahoma State  80.06   Baylor          66.73   Iowa State      149.87   Kansas State     +9.38   
Texas Tech      78.94   Kansas          70.81   West Virginia   147.75   Baylor           +9.00   
Kansas State    75.94   Oklahoma State  73.31   Kansas State    142.50   TCU              +8.75   
Baylor          75.73   Iowa State      74.60   Baylor          142.47   Oklahoma State   +6.75   
Iowa State      75.27   TCU             77.75   Texas Tech      140.25   Texas            +6.69   
Texas           73.31   Oklahoma        80.80   Texas           139.94   Iowa State       +0.67   

Schedule Strength 
--------------------------- 
Texas           79.07 (  5) 
Oklahoma        78.06 ( 11) 
Kansas          77.71 ( 12) 
TCU             75.79 ( 40) 
Baylor          75.27 ( 53) 
Iowa State      74.28 ( 86) 
West Virginia   74.13 ( 93) 
Oklahoma State  73.00 (134) 
Texas Tech      72.75 (145)
Kansas State    72.16 (178)