Mid season projection - who leaves early?

Unfortunately, my current betting is that Preston will follow the path of Cliff Alexander, but without ever played a real game for KU. We will know soon

some weeks ago i posted that i thought self decided a year ago to go for the national champioship in 2019 by stockpiling transfers last year and combine it with our best ever recruiting class this year. great strategy in todays game. i also suggested that no one starting on this years team would start next year and that some wld have a hard time getting playing time at all. obvi your post highlights that dilemma since two need to actually depart to make room. absent other factors i wld hope they wld be sam and malik, nothing against either one but we will be so deep at guard we really dont need them. wld hate to lose mitch but he may well see that playing time will be scarece and he might want to start somewhere else. clear that coach wld try to talk him into staying (much more so than the other two who he essentially accused of having bad attitudes last night). these are high class problems as they say. btw are we out of the running for zion? g

yep cld easily be preston even if he does end up playing espec if he plays well. garret also possible given the overload at guard.

Interesting question Eric. Here is my take.

Devonte’ - Graduated

Svi - Graduated

Dok - 7 footers don’t grow on trees and someone in the NBA would take a flyer if he declared. But I hope reason prevails and he realizes his short and long-term potential is best with him staying. I say 85% he comes back

Malik - less than 50% that he transfers and/or declares. 70% he returns

Vick - No way he declares and I can’t imagine him working this hard only to transfer. 95% he stays

Marcus - Self loves this kind of kid. He fits this system. Of course no possible way he declares. 95+% he stays.

Mitch - Loves KU. Wouldn’t leave for playing time. He would rather compete for PT at KU. He is Crimson and Blue. 99% he stays

Preston - Let’s say he is cleared to play here in a week or two. He plays well and shows his potential than he declares. He doesn’t play well but shows some potential, he leaves. If he doesn’t get cleared he to play this year he is not welcome back, he leaves. 90% he declares or transfers.

De Sousa - Can’t think of any reason he would leave. 90% he returns

Moore and the two Lawson’s...who the heck knows. Can’t see them leaving.

I will say I don't think Vick will declare for the NBA but how could you say he hasn't had a breakout year? He's averaging 15.3 PPG , 6 rpg, 3.3 apg, shooting 54% from the field and 44% from three. What constitutes a breakout year? He has doubled his points and rebounding from last year and he's shooting 10% better from the field and 7% better from three. Seems like a breakout season to me...

Well done Corpus - I think you're right on.

The only question I have on your logic is Dok. I agree fully with your assessment of his skills, but big guys with athleticism are rare, and also are at risk for more career ending back, knee and foot injuries. They make good practice players, and there's always room at the end of an NBA bench for a 7 foot 300 pounder. They have to get the money as soon as possible, so if there's any chance he goes in first round, he's gone.

Preston is also the unknown. Way too many variables. The downside for him is that he wasn't spectacular in the limited time he got to play.

Finally, Malik may see more value in D League than staying another year. College doesn't seem to suit him that well, and his scoring "potential" could be evaluated in a D League atmosphere.

IMHO, no one will leave early.

I see what you are saying HawkErrant...Sort of like how Frank's numbers increased but also just his overall total value to the team. While Vick's performance has been welcomed and very needed he hasn't been someone that has been able to take over a game for us and put the team on his back as we saw Mason do night in and out. I get it.

My bad HE - that's always what mystifies me - does HCBS already know something?? He must, or why would he still be recruiting? Given that (which was there before and I chose to ignore), my guess is Billy P and Dedric L are gone.

Best bet IMHO is Preston. As Corpus laid out, the only real option for him to stay is to get eligible and then not play very well.

Dok is also a possibility, but he's still a 'project' who could boost is draft position with another year of seasoning.

As for Vick's "breakout year" I too disagree that he's proven that to be the case vs.his first 2 years.

Yes his numbers are up but that doesn't tell the whole story:
>Minutes: 33.3 up from 24.4. But with no depth on this team, of course his numbers would be up.
>Points: 15.3 vs. 7.4 last year looks good, but if you look per-minute, it's 0.46 vs 0.3. So "doubling" his output is really only a 50% increase per minute, and I'd argue that we're asking him to score more than we were counting on him to do so last year. He's also shooting almost twice as many threes this year, further boosting his numbers.
>To me, the #1 thing from stamping this year as "breakout" however is his recent performance. Over the last 3 games he's averaged only 6 points per game while averaging 32 minutes per game. That's .18 points per minute. With the exception of the Texas game, he's played pretty lackluster ball in league play. Couple that with his crazy athleticism and it doesn't seem to compute and appears to be under-achieving.

Not knocking him as I think he's a great ball player with huge upside. He just seems to have been mysteriously absent a few too many times in games this year for me to feel like he's having what I'd personally consider a "breakout" year. Better yes. Breakout no.