predictions for Iowa State game

So, we have the conference's worst team on our home court.  Easy game, right?
Well, if you think that way, you lose.  There are no easy games in Big 12
conference play.  Easier, perhaps, but not easy.

Predictions range from a low of 9 points, courtesy of Seven Overtimes, to
25 points, courtesy of the Sagarin offense-defense method.  The average of
the various prognostications is at 17.5 points.  Maybe Devonte can get a
few minutes more rest this game.  Svi as well, who apparently feels like
he's a 27 minutes per game sort of fellow.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them;
Iowa State grabs more total rebounds per game, has a slightly smaller turnover
percentage, and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the
seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except offensive
rebounds per game.

Common Opponents
================
Both teams have played Texas.  The comparison of final scores is a little
misleading, given how the Iowa State game with Texas went into overtime.
Subtract 4 from the margin if you prefer to use the result at the end of
regulation.

KU   +6 UT  on road ( +9 neutral court)
ISU  -4 UT  at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +19 ISU at home (+16 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Leading scorer        Donovan Jackson           guard
Leading rebounder     Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Most assists          Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Most steals           Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Most blocks           Cameron Lard              forward
Most turnovers        Nick Weiler-Babb          guard
Most fouls            Solomon Young             forward

As of 4 p.m. Central Time, still no word on Billy Preston, despite KU
expecting to hear something yesterday.  I assume he will not play.  And although
Silvio De Sousa has joined the team, he has not yet been cleared by the NCAA,
nor has he had very many practices with the team, so expect to see a familiar
lineup for the Jayhawks.

                                                          12-3            9-5     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Iowa State 
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +17.17   85   68                #  4   #  9     # 84   #137 
Sagarin Predictor      +18.47   86   67       91.5     #  5   #  9     # 85   #137 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +14.70   84   69                #  7   #  9     # 70   #137 
Sagarin Recent Games   +14.16   83   69                # 22   #  9     #130   #137 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +24.75   92   67                                           
Sagarin Combo          +20.04   86   66                #  8   #  8     #117   #177
Sagarin Elo            +17.02   85   68                # 13   #  8     # 95   #177
Sagarin Blue           +24.48   89   64                #  5   #  8     #141   #177
performance adjust     +23.47   88   65
trend adjust           +14.65   84   69
Massey                 +14.00   87   73       92       # 16   #  4     # 94   #104 
Pomeroy                +16.52   84   67                #  7   # 12     #106   #188
Greenfield             +16.00   86.5 70.5              #  5   #  5     # 88   # 85
Dunkel                 +12.50   82   69                # 10            # 65       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +16.00   86.5 70.5                                         
Real Time RPI          +21.00   87   66                # 12   #  7     # 88   #120 
Real Time GAMER        +20.00   89   69       85.1     # 12   #  7     # 88   #120 
Dolphin Predictive     +21.10   89   68       95.7     #  7            #142       
ESPN BPI               +20.00                 94.8     #  5   # 26     # 96   #157
Seven Overtimes         +9.00   81   72       87       #  4   # 13     # 76   #115
Whitlock               +17.97                          #  7   #  4     #120   # 87       
DPPI                   +13.40   85.5 72       86.6     #  8   # 11     
Colley Matrix          +14.51                          # 12   #  4     # 88   # 97
CBN RPI                                                # 12   #  8     #115   #117
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  6     #124   #134
common opponents       +19.00
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +17.5 +/- 3.9

Here is Kansas' season; the road game with West Virginia is a projected
loss, while the road game with Texas Tech is a toss-up.  The projected
season record is back up to 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #226 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.76    +7.24
NEUT   # 18 Kentucky                    65  61    +5.70    -1.70
HOME   # 87 South Dakota State          98  64   +18.55   +15.45
HOME   #200 Texas Southern             114  71   +27.32   +15.68
HOME   #132 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.36   +20.64
HOME   #152 Toledo                      96  58   +23.37   +14.63
NEUT   # 46 Syracuse                    76  60   +10.00    +6.00
HOME   # 99 Washington                  65  74   +19.67   -28.67
HOME   # 24 Arizona State               85  95    +9.92   -19.92
AWAY   # 86 Nebraska                    73  72   +12.09   -11.09
HOME   #256 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +30.96   +14.04
AWAY   #105 Stanford                    75  54   +13.97    +7.03
AWAY   # 31 Texas                       92  86    +4.45    +1.55
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  73  85    +6.42   -18.42
AWAY   # 26 TCU                         88  84    +3.86    +0.14
HOME   # 85 Iowa State                           +18.47             0.915
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                         +13.29             0.865
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                         -0.65             0.483
HOME   # 30 Baylor                               +10.83             0.802
AWAY   # 17 Oklahoma                              +2.45             0.575
HOME   # 27 Texas A&M                            +10.46             0.788
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          +6.89             0.716
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State                       +14.41             0.872
HOME   # 26 TCU                                  +10.26             0.804
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                                +4.43             0.636
AWAY   # 85 Iowa State                           +12.07             0.815
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         +5.75             0.649
HOME   # 17 Oklahoma                              +8.85             0.754
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            +0.02             0.501
HOME   # 31 Texas                                +10.85             0.809
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +8.01             0.736

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 38 Missouri                    59  74    -9.54    -5.46
HOME   #205 Milwaukee                   56  74   +12.30   -30.30
NEUT   #239 Appalachian State          104  98   +11.26    -5.26
NEUT   #115 Tulsa                       80  78    +2.61    -0.61
NEUT   # 55 Boise State                 75  64    -3.80   +14.80
HOME   #286 Western Illinois            70  45   +17.26    +7.74
HOME   #214 Northern Illinois           94  80   +12.75    +1.25
HOME   # 73 Iowa                        84  78    +1.89    +4.11
HOME   #342 Alcorn State                78  58   +24.88    -4.88
HOME   #102 Northern Iowa               76  65    +4.52    +6.48
HOME   #346 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     55  49   +27.41   -21.41
HOME   # 48 Kansas State                75  91    -1.98   -14.02
HOME   # 31 Texas                       70  74    -4.42    +0.42
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State              87  96    -7.26    -1.74
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                               -18.47             0.085
HOME   # 30 Baylor                                -4.44             0.344
AWAY   # 26 TCU                                  -11.41             0.131
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            -8.85             0.216
AWAY   # 31 Texas                                -10.82             0.154
HOME   # 37 Tennessee                             -3.34             0.385
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         -9.52             0.241
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                               -10.84             0.163
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                           -15.25             0.088
HOME   # 17 Oklahoma                              -6.42             0.283
HOME   #  5 Kansas                               -12.07             0.185
AWAY   # 48 Kansas State                          -8.38             0.206
HOME   # 26 TCU                                   -5.01             0.311
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                        -15.92             0.120
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State                        -0.86             0.469
AWAY   # 17 Oklahoma                             -12.82             0.126