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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 3
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7 years 5 months ago #15176
by asteroid
No changes in the projected standings after Round 3. If Texas Tech can win in
Norman on Tuesday, the Red Raiders would pick up 0.53 of a win, moving them up
to 13.2 projected wins, plus whatever they would gain from the ratings adjustment
following the games. Meanwhile, should Kansas beat Iowa State as projected, the
Jayhawks would pick up only 0.09 of a win, boosting their projected win total to
just 13.0, meaning a win in Norman would move Texas Tech into the lead. The
Sooners need to win that game. Right now it's a three horse race, with Oklahoma
within spitting distance.
Starting with yesterday's game, KU's sequence of road games involve TCU, West
Virginia, and Oklahoma, all upper division opponents. Survive that gauntlet,
and the Jayhawks should be in pretty good shape. By "survive", I mean win two
out of three. One is already in the bag.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 5 Kansas 13.09 13.61 12.47 12.93 2 1 ISU (Tu) KU by 18.4
# 10 Texas Tech 10.24 11.08 12.25 12.68 3 0 @OU (Tu)
# 7 West Virginia 11.22 11.61 12.11 12.57 3 0 BU (Tu) WVU by 8.2
# 17 Oklahoma 9.97 10.47 10.97 10.50 2 1 TTU (Tu) OU by 0.8
# 26 TCU 8.93 8.30 9.09 8.78 1 2 @UT (We)
# 31 Texas 8.92 8.59 8.89 8.30 1 2 TCU (We) UT by 2.6
# 30 Baylor 9.34 8.35 7.61 8.25 1 2 @WVU (Tu)
# 48 Kansas State 6.82 7.76 7.23 6.82 1 2 OSU (We) KSU by 4.3
# 52 Oklahoma State 6.64 6.22 5.74 6.02 1 2 @KSU (We)
# 85 Iowa State 4.83 4.01 3.64 3.15 0 3 @KU (Tu)
All the contenders are playing on Tuesday in Round 4. Kansas has its easiest
game of the conference schedule, playing last-place Iowa State in the friendly
confines of Allen Field House (though no conference game should be deemed "easy").
West Virginia's odds of winning are at 74 percent, while the other three games
are projected to be close.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
KU over ISU 18.4 14.0 15.7 21.0 10.6 17.2 19.8 9.0
WVU over BU 8.2 8.0 7.7 9.9 11.7 8.8 11.2
KSU over OSU 4.3 4.0 4.9 4.9 3.9 3.9 5.9 6.0
UT over TCU 2.6 1.0 1.8 2.2 -5.6 -0.1 1.1 5.0
OU over TTU 0.8 -2.0 -0.1 -2.0 6.8 0.8 -1.0 6.0
ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 3. Honorable mention to
Andy Dolphin. Worst predictions came from Colley, with dishonorable mention to
Mark Bashuk of Seven Overtimes. Yours truly has the season lead marginally over
Yours truly (home court variant).
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
TTU over KSU 9.4 12.0 10.7 9.5 11.5 9.0 13.2 9.6 14.0 11.5 6.0 15.0 12.7 12.2 13.9
OSU over ISU 7.1 7.0 7.7 7.5 10.5 7.0 10.0 3.6 8.1 6.7 6.0 6.0 10.7 10.2 1.7
WVU over OU 5.8 4.0 3.7 5.0 6.0 3.5 5.5 0.1 0.8 9.5 5.0 2.0 3.8 3.3 1.0
KU over TCU 3.9 -3.0 0.2 2.0 -1.0 1.5 2.2 -7.1 -0.8 1.5 -5.0 -10.0 4.8 5.3 -4.5
BU over UT 2.5 4.0 2.4 3.0 1.5 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.9 2.7 -3.0 5.0 1.8 1.3 0.9
Reality Error 1 1 1
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real Aste A-HC Trnd
16 6.6 4.0 5.3 6.5 4.5 7.0 2.8 6.4 2.0 4.5 10.0 1.0 3.3 3.8 2.1
9 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 5.4 0.9 2.3 3.0 3.0 1.7 1.2 7.3
13 7.2 9.0 9.3 8.0 7.0 9.5 7.5 12.9 12.2 3.5 8.0 11.0 9.2 9.7 12.0
4 0.1 7.0 3.8 2.0 5.0 2.5 1.8 11.1 4.8 2.5 9.0 14.0 0.8 1.3 8.5
9 6.5 5.0 6.6 6.0 7.5 6.0 7.6 8.8 8.1 6.3 12.0 4.0 7.2 7.7 8.1
total 22.3 27.0 26.3 24.0 25.5 27.0 20.7 44.6 28.0 19.1 42.0 33.0 22.2 23.7 38.0
previous 82.9 95.0 81.6 81.0 100.0 86.0 78.3 99.6 73.4 90.7 110.0 120.0 75.9 75.1 82.4
cumulative 105.2 122.0 107.9 105.0 125.5 113.0 99.0 144.2 101.4 109.8 152.0 153.0 98.1 98.8 120.4
per game 7.0 8.1 7.2 7.0 8.4 7.5 6.6 9.6 6.8 7.3 10.1 10.2 6.5 6.6 8.0
Only one road win in Round 3, as projected. Still, we're way ahead of the long-term
average of one in three. No road wins are projected for Round 4, however, though
Texas Tech in Norman is a toss-up game.
Road wins (9 out of 15) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- --------------------------------- --------------------
2 Kansas UT TCU 0 Oklahoma +2 West Virginia
2 West Virginia OSU KSU 0 Texas Tech +1 Kansas
1 Kansas State ISU 0 West Virginia +1 Oklahoma
1 Oklahoma TCU 1 Baylor TCU +1 Texas Tech
1 TCU BU 1 Kansas TTU 0 Kansas State
1 Texas ISU 1 Kansas State WVU 0 Texas
1 Texas Tech KU 1 Oklahoma State WVU -1 Baylor
0 Baylor 1 Texas KU -1 Oklahoma State
0 Iowa State 2 Iowa State KSU UT -1 TCU
0 Oklahoma State 2 TCU OU KU -2 Iowa State
Kansas is still at the bottom of the conference in consistency, trend, and mental
toughness. Ouch.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Texas Tech +3.35 TCU 8.20
Oklahoma +1.91 Kansas State 8.25
Kansas +1.51 Texas 9.22
TCU +0.65 Oklahoma State 10.03
West Virginia +0.55 Baylor 10.07
Oklahoma State +0.02 Oklahoma 10.45
Kansas State -0.09 Texas Tech 10.67
Texas -0.26 Iowa State 11.91
Baylor -0.47 West Virginia 14.94
Iowa State -3.46 Kansas 14.95
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Oklahoma +0.44 +/- 0.71 Iowa State +0.35 +/- 0.28
Texas Tech +0.36 +/- 0.65 Texas Tech +0.32 +/- 0.21
West Virginia +0.27 +/- 0.92 Oklahoma +0.09 +/- 0.24
Iowa State +0.21 +/- 0.82 TCU +0.07 +/- 0.24
TCU +0.11 +/- 0.51 Texas +0.06 +/- 0.19
Kansas State -0.39 +/- 0.50 West Virginia -0.08 +/- 0.31
Baylor -0.60 +/- 0.67 Kansas State -0.10 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State -0.68 +/- 0.59 Baylor -0.13 +/- 0.20
Texas -0.80 +/- 0.53 Oklahoma State -0.21 +/- 0.21
Kansas -1.27 +/- 0.86 Kansas -0.79 +/- 0.39
Having gotten all conference members out of the 300s in strength of schedule, the next round of
games should get everyone out of the 200s. We've already got four in the Top 100, and Baylor
is poised to join that group after traveling to Morgantown.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma 93.79 Texas Tech 60.53 Oklahoma 175.57 Texas Tech +19.20
Kansas 86.20 Texas 64.40 TCU 162.07 West Virginia +17.53
TCU 85.60 Kansas State 65.40 Kansas 156.40 Kansas +16.00
West Virginia 83.87 West Virginia 66.33 Oklahoma State 152.40 Oklahoma +12.00
Oklahoma State 79.80 Baylor 67.57 West Virginia 150.20 Kansas State +10.00
Texas Tech 79.73 Kansas 70.20 Iowa State 149.07 Baylor +9.57
Baylor 77.14 Oklahoma State 72.60 Baylor 144.71 TCU +9.13
Kansas State 75.40 Iowa State 74.14 Kansas State 140.80 Texas +7.33
Iowa State 74.93 TCU 76.47 Texas Tech 140.27 Oklahoma State +7.20
Texas 71.73 Oklahoma 81.79 Texas 136.13 Iowa State +0.79
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Texas 78.45 ( 6)
Kansas 77.88 ( 10)
Oklahoma 77.01 ( 18)
TCU 74.76 ( 64)
Baylor 73.33 (116)
West Virginia 73.11 (132)
Iowa State 73.05 (135)
Oklahoma State 71.93 (180)
Kansas State 71.51 (201)
Texas Tech 71.19 (213)
The following user(s) said Thank You: Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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