predictions for TCU game

Predictions for the outcome of today's game are mixed.  The most favorable is
the common opponent comparison, which has Kansas favored by 15 points, while
Sagarin's Elo method and Real Time have Kansas losing by 10 points.  Road
teams have won a remarkable 80 percent of the conference games so far.  I do
not expect that trend to continue for the entire season, but Kansas could sure
use a road win over a contender to offset the recent home loss to another
contender.  The average prediction has Kansas losing, but the more reliable
prognosticators tend to be more favorable.  Even the performance adjustment
calls for a win while the trend adjustment calls for a loss.  Expect a nail-biter.
TCU's defense has been allowing the second-most points among conference teams.
If the threes are falling, we could see a repeat of the outcome in Austin.
Live by the three, die by the three.

Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in half of them,
namely average score margin, total rebounds per game, effective field goal
percentage, and turnover percentage.  Among the seven key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in all except offensive rebounds per game.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Kenrich Williams          guard
Leading scorer        Kenrich Williams          guard
Leading rebounder     Kenrich Williams          guard
Most assists          Jaylen Fisher             guard
Most steals           Kenrich Williams          guard
Most blocks           Vladimir Brodziansky      forward
Most turnovers        Kenrich Williams          guard
Most fouls            Kenrich Williams          guard

Looks like the Frogs are somewhat one-dimensional.  Control Williams, and you
control the game.

Still no word on Billy Preston.  I assume he will not play.  And although
Silvio De Sousa has joined the team, he has not yet been cleared by the NCAA,
nor has he had very many practices with the team, so expect to see a familiar
lineup for the Jayhawks.

Common Opponents
================
Both teams have played Omaha and Texas Southern.

KU  +45 Oma at home (+42 neutral court)
TCU +33 Oma at home (+30 neutral court)
KU   +9 TCU on road (+12 neutral court)

KU  +43 TxS at home (+40 neutral court)
TCU +19 TxS at home (+16 neutral court)
KU  +21 TCU on road (+24 neutral court)

That's an average of 15 points in favor of Kansas.
                                                          11-3           13-1     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           TCU     
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +1.30   80   79                #  6   # 20     # 22   # 96 
Sagarin Predictor       +3.92   81   77       62.3     #  5   # 20     # 27   # 96 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -0.98   79   80                #  8   # 20     # 17   # 96 
Sagarin Recent Games    -7.62   75   83                # 51   # 20     # 22   # 96 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +4.93   84   79                                           
Sagarin Combo           -3.40   77   81                # 14   # 33     # 19   #111
Sagarin Elo             -9.54   74   84                # 24   # 33     # 12   #111
Sagarin Blue            +4.59   81   77                #  5   # 33     # 24   #111
performance adjust      +4.79   82   77
trend adjust            -4.49   77   81
Massey                  -3.00   78   81       42       # 22   #  7     # 12   # 26 
Pomeroy                 +0.22   76   76                #  7   # 31     # 22   #110
Greenfield              +2.00   81   79                #  5   #  9     # 23   # 39
Dunkel                  -1.00   75.5 76.5              # 10            # 12       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +1.50   81   80                                           
Real Time RPI           -9.00   81   90                # 16   # 11     #  3   # 35 
Real Time GAMER        -10.00   80   90       18.5     # 16   # 11     #  3   # 35 
Dolphin Predictive      +2.22   81   79       57.1     #  7            # 30       
ESPN BPI                +1.50                 55.3     #  5   # 64     # 19   # 94
Seven Overtimes         -5.00   77   82       45       #  9   #  9     #  1   #105
Whitlock                -0.79                          # 10   #  6     # 18   # 20       
DPPI                    +1.00   80   79       56.3 
Colley Matrix           -7.12                          # 17   #  5     #  3   # 24
CBN RPI                                                # 22   # 11     #  4   # 19
LRMC                                                   #  8   #  7     # 24   # 33
common opponents       +15.00
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 -0.2 +/- 6.7

Here is Kansas' season; the road games with West Virginia and Texas Tech are
effectively toss-ups (less than a point predicted margin).  The projected
season record is back down to 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #219 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.27    +7.73
NEUT   # 16 Kentucky                    65  61    +5.45    -1.45
HOME   # 88 South Dakota State          98  64   +18.82   +15.18
HOME   #198 Texas Southern             114  71   +27.21   +15.79
HOME   #123 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +21.80   +21.20
HOME   #151 Toledo                      96  58   +23.49   +14.51
NEUT   # 46 Syracuse                    76  60    +9.94    +6.06
HOME   # 98 Washington                  65  74   +19.93   -28.93
HOME   # 24 Arizona State               85  95    +9.97   -19.97
AWAY   # 86 Nebraska                    73  72   +12.34   -11.34
HOME   #260 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +31.01   +13.99
AWAY   #108 Stanford                    75  54   +14.29    +6.71
AWAY   # 28 Texas                       92  86    +4.13    +1.87
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  73  85    +6.78   -18.78
AWAY   # 27 TCU                                   +3.92             0.623
HOME   # 83 Iowa State                           +18.31             0.902
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                         +12.99             0.850
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         -0.42             0.489
HOME   # 33 Baylor                               +11.22             0.803
AWAY   # 15 Oklahoma                              +2.17             0.565
HOME   # 23 Texas A&M                             +9.97             0.770
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                          +6.61             0.701
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State                       +14.40             0.862
HOME   # 27 TCU                                  +10.30             0.794
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                                +4.84             0.644
AWAY   # 83 Iowa State                           +11.93             0.800
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +5.96             0.651
HOME   # 15 Oklahoma                              +8.55             0.739
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            +0.40             0.512
HOME   # 28 Texas                                +10.51             0.793
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +8.02             0.728

Here is TCU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #261 Louisiana-Monroe            83  73   +23.94   -13.94
HOME   #224 Tennessee Tech             100  63   +21.42   +15.58
HOME   # 92 South Dakota                76  71   +11.85    -6.85
HOME   #260 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           99  66   +23.90    +9.10
NEUT   #157 New Mexico                  69  67   +13.55   -11.55
NEUT   # 57 St. Bonaventure             89  79    +4.79    +5.21
HOME   # 96 Belmont                     87  76   +12.46    -1.46
HOME   #160 Yale                        92  66   +16.89    +9.11
HOME   # 31 SMU                         94  83    +3.73    +7.27
NEUT   # 37 Nevada                      84  80    +1.67    +2.33
HOME   #198 Texas Southern              91  72   +20.10    -1.10
HOME   #163 William & Mary              86  75   +17.22    -6.22
HOME   # 15 Oklahoma                    89  90    +1.44    -2.44
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                      81  78    -2.27    +5.27
HOME   #  5 Kansas                                -3.92             0.377
AWAY   # 28 Texas                                 -2.98             0.370
AWAY   # 15 Oklahoma                              -4.94             0.304
HOME   # 83 Iowa State                           +11.20             0.852
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                          -0.50             0.476
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         -1.15             0.463
AWAY   # 66 Vanderbilt                            +3.08             0.623
AWAY   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +0.91             0.538
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                            -0.33             0.487
AWAY   #  5 Kansas                               -10.30             0.206
HOME   # 28 Texas                                 +3.40             0.648
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         -7.53             0.270
HOME   # 52 Oklahoma State                        +7.29             0.780
AWAY   # 83 Iowa State                            +4.82             0.674
HOME   # 33 Baylor                                +4.11             0.670
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                          +5.88             0.758
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            -6.71             0.248