Big 12 projection, Round 2

The two-game lead Kansas had going into Round 2 has evaporated, but the Jayhawks are still in the
lead for the league crown, despite the home loss, while Texas Tech marginally moved ahead of
West Virginia.  TCU's road win over Baylor was enough to elevate the Horned Frogs by two spots
into fifth place.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Kansas          13.09  13.61  12.47    1  1  @TCU (Sa)   KU  by  4.0  projected road win
# 10  Texas Tech      10.24  11.08  12.25    2  0   KSU (Sa)   TTU by  9.3
#  7  West Virginia   11.22  11.61  12.11    2  0   OU  (Sa)   WVU by  5.7
# 15  Oklahoma         9.97  10.47  10.97    2  0  @WVU (Sa)   
# 27  TCU              8.93   8.30   9.09    1  1   KU  (Sa)   
# 31  Texas            8.92   8.59   8.89    1  1  @BU  (Sa)   
# 33  Baylor           9.34   8.35   7.61    0  2   UT  (Sa)   BU  by  2.5
# 42  Kansas State     6.82   7.76   7.23    1  1  @TTU (Sa)   
# 53  Oklahoma State   6.64   6.22   5.74    0  2   ISU (Sa)   OSU by  6.9
# 83  Iowa State       4.83   4.01   3.64    0  2  @OSU (Sa)

Round 3 features the two bottom feeders going up against one another, as well as two
undefeateds (in conference play).  One of them is guaranteed to pick up a loss, while
the other will keep pace with Texas Tech, who is predicted to have the easiest game
of the round and remain undefeated in the conference.

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
TTU over KSU     9.3  11.0                          13.1              14.7   5.0
OSU over ISU     6.9   7.0                           9.6               7.0   4.0
WVU over OU      5.7   4.0                           5.5               9.5   5.0
KU  over TCU     4.0  -2.0                           2.4               1.4  -5.0
BU  over UT      2.5   4.0                           1.3               2.7  -1.0

My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 2, mainly because it predicted a
Kansas loss.  Honorable mention goes to Whitlock.  Real Time turned in the worst predictions, with
dishonorable mention to Seven Overtimes.  Whitlock holds the season lead, with my home court
adjustment to Sagarin close behind.

Predictions                                                                                          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over TTU  8.4   5.0   3.9   7.5   4.5   7.0   5.2   5.9   3.3   8.5   7.0  11.0   7.7   7.3  -0.7
OU  over OSU  8.1   8.0   9.0   9.5   5.5  10.0   9.3  12.4  10.9  10.3   6.0  16.0   9.9   9.4  14.0
UT  over ISU  4.6   2.0   3.9   2.0   6.5   3.0   5.9  -3.3   4.7   0.4   1.0  -8.0   8.4   8.9  -1.4
WVU over KSU  3.3  -1.0   0.9   1.5  -1.0   2.0   2.0   1.8   1.4   0.1  -5.0  -2.0   3.3   3.8   2.6
BU  over TCU  2.8   3.0   1.5   0.0   4.0   1.0   1.6  -7.8  -2.1   1.3  -1.0   3.0   1.5   1.0  -2.5

    Reality  Error                                                                           1     1
    -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
      -12    20.4  17.0  15.9  19.5  16.5  19.0  17.2  17.9  15.3  20.5  19.0  23.0  19.7  19.3  11.3
       20    11.9  12.0  11.0  10.5  14.5  10.0  10.7   7.6   9.1   9.7  14.0   4.0  10.1  10.6   6.0
        4     0.6   2.0   0.1   2.0   2.5   1.0   1.9   7.3   0.7   3.6   3.0  12.0   4.4   4.9   5.4
        8     4.7   9.0   7.1   6.5   9.0   6.0   6.0   6.2   6.6   7.9  13.0  10.0   4.7   4.2   5.4
       -3     5.8   6.0   4.5   3.0   7.0   4.0   4.6   4.8   0.9   4.3   2.0   6.0   4.5   4.0   0.5

total        43.4  46.0  38.6  41.5  49.5  40.0  40.4  43.8  32.6  46.0  51.0  55.0  43.4  43.0  28.6
previous     39.5  49.0  43.0  39.5  50.5  46.0  37.9  55.8  40.8  44.7  59.0  65.0  32.5  32.1  53.8
cumulative   82.9  95.0  81.6  81.0 100.0  86.0  78.3  99.6  73.4  90.7 110.0 120.0  75.9  75.1  82.4
per game      8.3   9.5   8.2   8.1  10.0   8.6   7.8  10.0   7.3   9.1  11.0  12.0   7.6   7.5   8.2

Eight road wins in the first ten games.  That must be unprecedented.  The good news for Iowa State
is that they won't pick up another home loss in Round 3.  Only one road win is projected for
Round 3, and Kansas fans really want to see that one transpire.

Road wins (8 out of 10)                     Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
2 West Virginia  OSU KSU                    0 Oklahoma                          +2 West Virginia 
1 Kansas         UT                         0 Texas Tech                        +1 Oklahoma      
1 Kansas State   ISU                        0 West Virginia                     +1 Texas Tech    
1 Oklahoma       TCU                        1 Baylor         TCU                 0 Kansas        
1 TCU            BU                         1 Kansas         TTU                 0 Kansas State  
1 Texas          ISU                        1 Kansas State   WVU                 0 TCU           
1 Texas Tech     KU                         1 Oklahoma State WVU                 0 Texas         
0 Baylor                                    1 TCU            OU                 -1 Baylor        
0 Iowa State                                1 Texas          KU                 -1 Oklahoma State
0 Oklahoma State                            2 Iowa State     KSU UT             -2 Iowa State    

Kansas now finds itself at the bottom of the conference in consistency, trend, and mental
toughness.  Ouch.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +3.36    Kansas State      8.39    
Oklahoma        +2.36    TCU               8.84    
Kansas          +1.61    Texas             9.49    
TCU             +0.62    Baylor           10.16    
West Virginia   +0.40    Oklahoma State   10.19    
Kansas State    +0.14    Oklahoma         10.71    
Oklahoma State  -0.08    Texas Tech       11.20    
Texas           -0.09    Iowa State       12.43    
Baylor          -0.74    West Virginia    15.20    
Iowa State      -3.55    Kansas           15.52    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma        +0.83 +/- 0.79    Iowa State      +0.39 +/- 0.30
Texas Tech      +0.38 +/- 0.77    Texas Tech      +0.33 +/- 0.22
West Virginia   +0.17 +/- 1.05    Oklahoma        +0.22 +/- 0.27
Iowa State      +0.16 +/- 0.96    Texas           +0.11 +/- 0.20
TCU             -0.05 +/- 0.68    TCU             +0.06 +/- 0.32
Kansas State    -0.30 +/- 0.57    Kansas State    -0.05 +/- 0.21
Texas           -0.77 +/- 0.62    West Virginia   -0.13 +/- 0.33
Oklahoma State  -0.90 +/- 0.65    Baylor          -0.16 +/- 0.20
Baylor          -0.99 +/- 0.73    Oklahoma State  -0.22 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -1.54 +/- 0.97    Kansas          -0.87 +/- 0.43

Oklahoma's astronomical total points value actually went even higher.  Kansas is going from
the league's stingiest defense on Tuesday, to the second-most porous defense on Saturday.
Every conference team's strength of schedule is now out of the 300s in national ranking.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        95.00   Texas Tech      60.57   Oklahoma        176.38   Texas Tech      +19.71   
TCU             86.08   Texas           64.21   TCU             161.54   West Virginia   +18.14   
Kansas          85.93   Kansas State    64.93   Kansas          155.29   Kansas          +16.57   
West Virginia   83.64   West Virginia   65.50   Oklahoma State  150.21   Oklahoma        +13.62   
Texas Tech      80.29   Baylor          68.00   West Virginia   149.14   Kansas State    +11.57   
Oklahoma State  78.79   Kansas          69.36   Iowa State      146.46   TCU             +10.62   
Baylor          77.92   Oklahoma State  71.43   Baylor          145.92   Baylor           +9.92   
Kansas State    76.50   Iowa State      72.62   Kansas State    141.43   Texas            +8.21   
Iowa State      73.85   TCU             75.46   Texas Tech      140.86   Oklahoma State   +7.36   
Texas           72.43   Oklahoma        81.38   Texas           136.64   Iowa State       +1.23   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Texas           77.50 ( 15)
Kansas          77.04 ( 21)
Oklahoma        75.80 ( 40)
TCU             72.73 (144)
Iowa State      72.31 (162)
West Virginia   71.78 (183)
Baylor          71.68 (190)
Oklahoma State  71.41 (203)
Kansas State    70.39 (259)
Texas Tech      69.91 (277)