Why I am not as alarmed as one might think

We lost in Allen Fieldhouse. That is alarming. We lost by double digits. That is alarming. We got beat in toughness and hustle. That is alarming. So am I alarmed? Yes. Am I super worried that catastrophe is around the corner? NO!!!! Why? Simply this, IMHO we lost to one of the 5 or 6 best teams in the country. Texas Tech is for real. They are legit. I know all of you don't necessarily put much stock in my DPPI and I understand it's application better than anyone. But I do have confidence in it to the degree it has accuracy. As of right now (all games in through 1/2/2018) Texas Tech is ranked No. 4 in the country and Arizona St. is ranked No. 1. We have simply lost to better teams. Kansas is still ranked 8th. I still think we can be a top 10 team and possibly better when D Sousa and/or Preston are freed up. This was a bad game for us and it is alarming in many ways but when you lose to a better team it is not that alarming. I had KU as a 2 point dog in this game. We lost by 12. That is not good but it is not catastrophic. The bad news is I have us losing 6.4 games this season and only a 6% probability of winning the Big 12. Texas Tech is projected to win 15.3 games and has a 86% probability of winning the Big 12. Get ready, this is very likely the year we will break the streak. But if we come back and win it will be maybe the sweetest yet.

I had a longer msg written, but the RCT zapped me. So a short version. Your bad news (KU 4th in Big 12) is about as bad as it gets. Not sure how that translates, given your DPPI has KU 2nd in Big 12 teams now. With Ahmad coming back for WVU Jan 13th, I give them the nod. OU is good as long as Young is healthy, but we know how injuries can happen.
As for the DPPI, I can't have much confidence in anything that has Wichita St 28th. BTW, they are in the American Conf.
I do agree with your last sentence - hope that comes true.

I suppose that the prospect of KU possibly finishing 4th (or anything less than 1st) is something between unfortunate and catastrophic depending on your view of the world. There is no right or wrong in that spectrum. I guess when it started to become apparent to me that this was going to be a severe uphill battle I girded my loins for that possibility and I have accepted it to some degree. Also, as a Jayahwk fan the years have repeatedly given us reason to be hopeful (more for the regular season than post-season) and even when the probabilities are small, KU has found ways in the past to finish with the short odds. Heck, two seasons ago they had around a 5% probability headed in to conference play. Probabilities are by definition banded with confidence intervals. They do not portend absolutes and they are based on past relative performance so anything that changes the dynamics like adding new players or losing key players will render probabilities to lower confidence bands. It is a guide not an absolute therefore leaving infinite room for hope. So while I look at the world of the DPPI with great interest and depth, I still live in the larger world of hope. The season is not over and the fact that the algortihm gives a probability of finishing 4th or 3rd or whatever, I also have the perspective of knowing that is bounded by an understandable confidence band and unbounded by my desire and willingness to hope regardless of the probability. I do not expect anyone to adopt my approach, I only offer it as another source of info and viewpoint. When it comes to enjoying our beloved Jayhawks each is entitled to manifest his/her own proclivities. I take no offense with disagreement other than I would prefer people to understand my goal in all the quant/algo stuff is simply to provide those who enjoy it the opportunity to have the info and analysis in case it is helpful, meaningful or enjoyable to them. If not than no harm no foul.

wonderfully evolved point of view corpus and much appreciated! after so much success jhawk fans are understandably spoiled and feeling entitled. thats why its very important to be realistic about our talent level/depth and how good the other team is ( all of which your statistical approach aims to measure). and that with only seven players playing nearly back to back games what looks like lack of hustle or dumb plays can be exhaustion ( tho not always). and we are not going to make 17 threes every game. and we are going to get everyone elses best effort ( tech hadnt won in afh ever right?). decoding selfs comments the other day i think he was suggesting we write off january and measure this team in february. im happy to do that. times like this separate the real fans from the frontrunners. pls keep posting all your good work corpus, thx g