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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Texas Tech game
- asteroid
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7 years 6 months ago #15053
by asteroid
Here's the thing: Texas Tech hasn't played a true road game so far this season.
That means we have no way of knowing how they will perform with a hostile crowd.
In their three neutral court games, they lost to Seton Hall, the strongest
opponent they've faced so far this season, they beat Boston College pretty much
as expected, and they obliterated Northwestern by 30 points more than expected,
which is their best performance of the season. Their second-best performance
came in their conference opener, when they beat Baylor by almost 18 points more
than expected. Otherwise, their schedule has been Charmin soft, ranked at the
bottom of the Big 12, and in the bottom 30 nationally, at least according to
Sagarin. Greenfield has a much stronger opinion of Tech's schedule, but
Pomeroy agrees with Sagarin.
There is surprisingly good agreement among the various prognosticators for
this game; the scatter is less than 3 points, less than half what it was
for the Texas game. The average has Kansas by 6.5 points, and the only
contrary prediction stems from the trend analysis, in which Kansas is still
struggling to overcome those four consecutive double-digit above expectation
performances. Fortunately, the statistical significance of the trend value
is weak, so it's not too hard to ignore the trend adjustment. The next most
pessimistic prediction is from Don's DPPI, which would predict overtime
after rounding the Kansas score down from 75.4 and rounding up the Texas Tech
score from 74.9, which accounts for the 0.6 point difference. Then again,
this prediction predates the results of our Texas game as well as Tech's game
with Baylor. Although we won on the road by a margin very close to the
expected margin, Tech won at home by significantly more than expected. If
anything, the ratings adjustment could well flip the prediction in favor of
Texas Tech. But again, this is Tech's first true road game of the season,
and their leading shot blocker might be hobbled with a bum ankle.
Among the eight key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of them;
Texas Tech has a larger scoring margin, gets a higher percentage of offensive
rebounds, and attempts way more free throws per field goal attempt. Among the
seven key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in only three of them,
namely defensive rebounds per game, blocks per game, and personal fouls per
game. Thank goodness for that last one, considering how thin the roster is.
But are we going to wear them out by the end of the season?
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Keenan Evans guard
Leading scorer Keenan Evans guard
Leading rebounder Norense Odiase center
Most assists Keenan Evans guard
Most steals Keenan Evans guard
Most blocks Zach Smith forward
Most turnovers Keenan Evans guard
Most fouls Norense Odiase center
Zach Smith has an ankle injury but is expected to play. Third on the team in
minutes played is guard Zhaire Smith who has an undisclosed injury, and his
status for the game is unknown.
Still no word on Billy Preston. I assume he will not play. And although
Silvio De Sousa has joined the team, he has not yet been cleared by the NCAA,
nor has he had very many practices with the team, so expect to see a familiar
lineup for the Jayhawks.
11-2 12-1
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Texas Tech
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +7.98 78 70 # 3 # 35 # 13 #323
Sagarin Predictor +8.42 78 69 73.9 # 2 # 35 # 11 #323
Sagarin Golden Mean +6.86 77 70 # 5 # 35 # 17 #323
Sagarin Recent Games +8.07 78 70 # 9 # 35 # 32 #323
Sagarin Off-Def Meth +5.82 75 69
Sagarin Combo +8.30 78 70 # 6 # 50 # 16 #319
Sagarin Elo +9.45 78 69 # 12 # 50 # 24 #319
Sagarin Blue +7.65 77 70 # 5 # 50 # 7 #319
performance adjust +7.73 78 70
trend adjust -0.70 73 74
Massey +5.00 75 70 68 # 12 # 8 # 11 # 96
Pomeroy +3.87 75 71 # 6 # 53 # 7 #326
Greenfield +7.50 78 71 # 5 # 14 # 15 # 55
Dunkel +4.50 73 68 # 10 # 14
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.00 77 70
Real Time RPI +11.00 87 76 # 14 # 24 # 25 #238
Real Time GAMER +11.00 87 76 71.1 # 14 # 24 # 25 #238
Dolphin Predictive +5.16 74 69 66.9 # 5 # 6
ESPN BPI +8.50 77.8 # 4 #105 # 8 #242
Seven Overtimes +7.00 77 70 58 # 4 # 9 # 33 #260
Whitlock +3.31 # 6 # 11 # 7 #115
DPPI +0.60 75 75 55.1
Colley Matrix +5.89 # 9 # 13 # 24 #210
CBN RPI # 13 # 25 # 38 #182
LRMC not on board, but "Coming Soon!" has replaced last year's listing
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +6.5 +/- 2.9
Here is Kansas' season; all remaining games are projected wins,
and the projected season record remains at 24-7:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #226 Tennessee State 92 56 +29.55 +6.45
NEUT # 15 Kentucky 65 61 +6.01 -2.01
HOME # 91 South Dakota State 98 64 +19.97 +14.03
HOME #200 Texas Southern 114 71 +27.91 +15.09
HOME #118 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +22.33 +20.67
HOME #147 Toledo 96 58 +23.74 +14.26
NEUT # 40 Syracuse 76 60 +10.19 +5.81
HOME # 95 Washington 65 74 +20.61 -29.61
HOME # 21 Arizona State 85 95 +9.92 -19.92
AWAY # 96 Nebraska 73 72 +14.29 -13.29
HOME #260 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 109 64 +31.91 +13.09
AWAY #113 Stanford 75 54 +15.73 +5.27
AWAY # 29 Texas 92 86 +5.01 +0.99
HOME # 11 Texas Tech +8.42 0.739
AWAY # 30 TCU +5.02 0.658
HOME # 85 Iowa State +19.07 0.914
HOME # 42 Kansas State +13.63 0.867
AWAY # 6 West Virginia +0.42 0.511
HOME # 32 Baylor +11.75 0.816
AWAY # 18 Oklahoma +3.44 0.603
HOME # 19 Texas A&M +9.79 0.771
AWAY # 42 Kansas State +7.31 0.725
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State +14.71 0.876
HOME # 30 TCU +11.34 0.821
AWAY # 32 Baylor +5.43 0.661
AWAY # 85 Iowa State +12.75 0.819
HOME # 6 West Virginia +6.74 0.670
HOME # 18 Oklahoma +9.76 0.771
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech +2.10 0.563
HOME # 29 Texas +11.33 0.814
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State +8.39 0.745
Here is Texas Tech's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #212 South Alabama 75 50 +23.43 +1.57
HOME #335 Maine 83 44 +34.22 +4.78
NEUT # 79 Boston College 75 64 +10.43 +0.57
NEUT # 49 Northwestern 85 49 +5.98 +30.02
HOME #181 Wofford 79 56 +21.57 +1.43
HOME #341 Savannah State 103 69 +35.81 -1.81
NEUT # 24 Seton Hall 79 89 +2.21 -12.21
HOME # 36 Nevada 82 76 +7.23 -1.23
HOME #303 Kennesaw State 82 53 +29.27 -0.27
HOME #304 Rice 73 53 +29.34 -9.34
HOME #271 Florida Atlantic 90 54 +27.16 +8.84
HOME #269 Abilene Christian 74 47 +27.14 -0.14
HOME # 32 Baylor 77 53 +6.49 +17.51
AWAY # 2 Kansas -8.42 0.261
HOME # 42 Kansas State +8.37 0.803
AWAY # 18 Oklahoma -1.82 0.434
HOME # 6 West Virginia +1.48 0.544
AWAY # 29 Texas -0.25 0.490
AWAY # 85 Iowa State +7.49 0.735
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State +9.45 0.817
AWAY # 67 South Carolina +5.67 0.697
HOME # 29 Texas +6.07 0.720
AWAY # 30 TCU -0.24 0.490
HOME # 85 Iowa State +13.81 0.877
AWAY # 42 Kansas State +2.05 0.583
HOME # 18 Oklahoma +4.50 0.660
AWAY # 32 Baylor +0.17 0.506
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State +3.13 0.618
HOME # 2 Kansas -2.10 0.437
AWAY # 6 West Virginia -4.84 0.360
HOME # 30 TCU +6.08 0.730
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, CorpusJayhawk, hairyhawk, gorillahawk, Socalhawk, murphyslaw, Wheatstate Gal
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- Wheatstate Gal
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7 years 6 months ago #15055
by Wheatstate Gal
HOSTILE crowd.....let it be!
Thx, Asteroid.
Thx, Asteroid.
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- NotOstertag
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7 years 6 months ago #15056
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Saw a clip posted by Fran Fricella (I guess we get him tonight) of Tech practicing while pumping a bunch of noise into the Fieldhouse to try and replicate how loud things get.
Nice idea, but IMHO there's "noise" and there's "hostile noise directed at you" and there's a big difference between the two.
Probably better to practice with the coaches randomly tossing firecrackers at the players to get a better feel for disruptions.
Nice idea, but IMHO there's "noise" and there's "hostile noise directed at you" and there's a big difference between the two.
Probably better to practice with the coaches randomly tossing firecrackers at the players to get a better feel for disruptions.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- Slayer2384
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7 years 6 months ago #15059
by Slayer2384
Firecrackers! That brings back memories. Funniest KU game I was ever if I remember correctly was the Mizzou game when Stopanovich was a Senior. He had just admitted he made up the story of being shot in the shoulder by intruders when he accidently shot himself (glancing wound). All the cap guns were sold and at the game. Every time he touch the ball, the cap guns went off. Totally shook him up and the whole Fieldhouse smelled like gunpowder. Classic Mizzou game.
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