Big 12 projection, Round 1

Texas leapfrogged both Baylor and TCU in the projected standings, even though all three of them
lost their games.  That's because Baylor lost rather badly and therefore dropped in the ratings,
and TCU's game was more of a toss-up game, so by losing, the Horned Frogs lost nearly half of a
projected win, while Texas lost only something closer to a third of a projected win.  The teams
in the middle of the pack are so close to one another that tiny changes like these can shuffle
the projected standings.  No other changes.  We'll find out Tuesday just how for-real Texas Tech
is.

                      Init.  Rnd 1
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          13.09  13.61    1  0   TTU (Tu)   KU  by  8.4
#  8  West Virginia   11.22  11.61    1  0  @KSU (Mo)   WVU by  3.4  projected road win
# 11  Texas Tech      10.24  11.08    1  0  @KU  (Tu)   
# 19  Oklahoma         9.97  10.47    1  0   OSU (We)   OU  by  8.1
# 26  Texas            8.92   8.59    0  1  @ISU (Mo)   UT  by  4.7  projected road win
# 32  Baylor           9.34   8.35    0  1   TCU (Tu)   BU  by  2.8
# 29  TCU              8.93   8.30    0  1  @BU  (Tu)   
# 41  Kansas State     6.82   7.76    1  0   WVU (Mo)   
# 53  Oklahoma State   6.64   6.22    0  1  @OU  (We)
# 85  Iowa State       4.83   4.01    0  1   UT  (Mo)

Right now, the closest thing we'll have to a predicted blowout will be when Iowa State comes to
Allen Field House, for which the current predicted margin is 19 points.  The parity in the Big 12
is going to give us more rounds like Round 1, with all the games predicted to be within 5 points
of one another.  Three games fall into that category for Round 2, but if Texas Tech is for real,
Tueday's game with Kansas could be closer than predicted.  Does Oklahoma State have an answer for
Trae Young?  I don't think so.  Give Oklahoma the nod for easiest game of the round.  But who
scheduled Bedlam for when the students are away?  In my best Judge Clark Brown, "Out-ra-geous."
I will, of course, be updating the predictions with the latest ratings on game day.

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over TTU     8.4   5.0                           5.2               8.8   7.0
OU  over OSU     8.1   8.0                           9.3              10.2   6.0
UT  over ISU     4.7   2.0                           5.9               0.3   1.0
WVU over KSU     3.4   1.0                           2.0               0.1  -5.0
BU  over TCU     2.8   3.0                           1.7               1.3  -1.0

One of Yours Truly's modifications to Sagarin Predictor took honors for best prognostications in
Round 1.  Adjusting for performance and the Big 12 home court advantage of 2.69 points, rather
than using Sagarin's 3.15 points, led to an average error in the predicted margin of just 6.4
points.  The trend analysis did badly, mainly because Iowa State showed a strong positive trend
after their two early season losses, but they lost badly at home to Kansas State.   But Real Time
turned in the real stinker of a performance in Round 1, while Colley and Seven Overtimes deserve
dishonorable mention.

Predictions                                                                                          
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
KU  over UT   5.0   3.0   2.1   4.5   6.0   2.0   3.7   1.3   3.0   4.9  -5.0  -4.0   7.6   8.0  -1.3
WVU over OSU  4.7   1.0   3.0   3.0  -1.0   3.5   3.0   0.8   1.6   2.8  -5.0  -3.0   4.5   5.0   6.3
TTU over BU   4.5   5.0   5.9   7.0   2.0   6.0   8.6   7.5   9.5   7.3   9.0  15.0   7.2   6.7   6.5
TCU over OU   1.7   3.0   1.8   2.5   6.0   2.5   1.9   6.5   2.4   5.8   5.0  12.0   0.2  -0.2  -1.9
KSU over ISU  1.0  -2.0   0.8   1.5   1.5  -2.0   1.7  -5.9   0.5  -0.9   0.0  -8.0   4.6   5.0 -11.8

    Reality  Error                                                                           1
    -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  Aste  A-HC  Trnd
        6     1.0   3.0   3.9   1.5   0.0   4.0   2.3   4.7   3.0   1.1  11.0  10.0   1.6   2.0   7.3
        6     1.3   5.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   2.5   3.0   5.2   4.4   3.2  11.0   9.0   1.5   1.0   0.3
       24    19.5  19.0  18.1  17.0  22.0  18.0  15.4  16.5  14.5  16.7  15.0   9.0  16.8  17.3  17.5
       -1     2.7   4.0   2.8   3.5   7.0   3.5   2.9   7.5   3.4   6.8   6.0  13.0   1.2   0.8   0.9
       16    15.0  18.0  15.2  14.5  14.5  18.0  14.3  21.9  15.5  16.9  16.0  24.0  11.4  11.0  27.8

total        39.5  49.0  43.0  39.5  50.5  46.0  37.9  55.8  40.8  44.7  59.0  65.0  32.5  32.1  53.8
previous
cumulative   39.5  49.0  43.0  39.5  50.5  46.0  37.9  55.8  40.8  44.7  59.0  65.0  32.5  32.1  53.8
per game      7.9   9.8   8.6   7.9  10.1   9.2   7.6  11.2   8.2   8.9  11.8  13.0   6.5   6.4  10.8

Four road wins in the first five games.  That might be unprecedented.  And only three were
projected.  It may be an indication of a continuing trend in the decline of the home court
advantage in the Big 12 conference.  Two more road wins are projected for Round 2, though
both may be tenuous.  Kansas State played well enough against Iowa State to potentially
knock off West Virginia, and Iowa State may bounce back from their home loss to handle
Texas, perhaps with a little bit of help from Hilton Magic.

Road wins (4 out of 5)                      Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
1 Kansas         UT                         0 Baylor                            +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas State   ISU                        0 Kansas                            +1 Kansas State  
1 Oklahoma       TCU                        0 Kansas State                      +1 Oklahoma      
1 West Virginia  OSU                        0 Oklahoma                          +1 West Virginia 
0 Baylor                                    0 Texas Tech                         0 Baylor        
0 Iowa State                                0 West Virginia                      0 Texas Tech    
0 Oklahoma State                            1 Iowa State     KSU                -1 Iowa State    
0 TCU                                       1 Oklahoma State WVU                -1 Oklahoma State
0 Texas                                     1 TCU            OU                 -1 TCU           
0 Texas Tech                                1 Texas          KU                 -1 Texas         

The two most underrated teams in the Big 12 will be squaring off on Tuesday.  The negative
trend and mental toughness for Kansas both improved, but they're still the worst in the Big 12.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +3.08    Kansas State      8.70    
Kansas          +2.39    TCU               8.84    
Oklahoma        +2.08    Texas             9.76    
TCU             +0.62    Oklahoma State    9.93    
Oklahoma State  +0.37    Baylor           10.68    
Kansas State    +0.30    Texas Tech       10.89    
West Virginia   +0.29    Oklahoma         10.91    
Texas           -0.06    Iowa State       12.94    
Baylor          -0.62    Kansas           14.92    
Iowa State      -3.90    West Virginia    15.62    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma        +0.69 +/- 0.93    Iowa State      +0.39 +/- 0.33
Iowa State      +0.10 +/- 1.13    Texas Tech      +0.24 +/- 0.27
West Virginia   +0.02 +/- 1.21    Oklahoma        +0.21 +/- 0.27
TCU             -0.05 +/- 0.68    Texas           +0.11 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech      -0.09 +/- 0.84    TCU             +0.06 +/- 0.32
Kansas State    -0.24 +/- 0.67    Kansas State     0.00 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma State  -0.73 +/- 0.74    Baylor          -0.16 +/- 0.22
Texas           -0.89 +/- 0.71    Oklahoma State  -0.16 +/- 0.24
Baylor          -1.12 +/- 0.87    West Virginia   -0.20 +/- 0.36
Kansas          -1.18 +/- 1.10    Kansas          -0.76 +/- 0.46

Oklahoma and TCU certainly lived up to their high total point averages.  By virtue of playing
Kansas on the road, Texas Tech's schedule strength ought to get out of the 300s.  Ditto for
Kansas State by virtue of playing West Virginia.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        94.00   Texas Tech      59.77   Oklahoma        174.58   Texas Tech      +20.00   
Kansas          87.08   Kansas State    63.85   TCU             161.54   Kansas          +19.08   
TCU             86.08   Texas           63.92   Kansas          155.08   West Virginia   +18.62   
West Virginia   84.00   West Virginia   65.38   West Virginia   149.38   Oklahoma        +13.42   
Texas Tech      79.77   Baylor          66.75   Iowa State      146.67   Kansas State    +13.38   
Baylor          78.08   Kansas          68.00   Oklahoma State  146.54   Baylor          +11.33   
Oklahoma State  77.85   Oklahoma State  68.69   Baylor          144.83   TCU             +10.62   
Kansas State    77.23   Iowa State      72.33   Kansas State    141.08   Oklahoma State   +9.15   
Iowa State      74.33   TCU             75.46   Texas Tech      139.54   Texas            +8.23   
Texas           72.15   Oklahoma        80.58   Texas           136.08   Iowa State       +2.00   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Texas           77.05 ( 24)
Kansas          76.11 ( 38)
Oklahoma        75.41 ( 51)
TCU             72.73 (144)
Iowa State      71.04 (210)
West Virginia   70.08 (266)
Oklahoma State  69.89 (278)
Baylor          69.83 (279)
Kansas State    69.06 (305)
Texas Tech      68.24 (324)