predictions for Texas game

And so it begins.

Round 1 features crucial games all around.  Would you believe that Colley
has TCU as his #1 team?

Sagarin generally favors Kansas, but his "Recent Games" and "Elo" (in which
only winning and losing matters; margin is ignored) favor Texas.  Real Time
and Seven Overtimes both appear to give more weight to the home court; they
both go with Texas.  The rest favor Kansas.

Although the last two games have been encouraging, the trend statistic for
Kansas still hasn't recovered from those three consecutive below expectation
performances.  And the Alabama performance wasn't enough to offset the
Tennessee State performance for Texas, so they have a negative trend as well,
but not quite as strong as Kansas', so Texas is slightly favored in that
comparison.

I need to get Don to send me an updated DPPI projection.  I'm still working
off the email from just prior to the Arizona State game.  His 9 point margin
for Kansas is the most favorable other than the Tennessee State common
opponent.

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except
free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  (That's going to be a recurring
theme this season, as Kansas ranks almost dead last in all of Division I in
that statistic.)  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in only three, namely defensive rebounds per game, steals per game, and
personal fouls per game.

Common Opponents
================

Just the one common opponent, namely Tennessee State.  Texas struggled with
them mightily.

KU  +36 TS  at home (+33 neutral court)
UT   +1 TS  at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +28 UT  on road (+31 neutral court)

I like this comparison the best.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Matt Coleman              guard
Leading scorer        Andrew Jones              guard
Leading rebounder     Mohamed Bamba             forward
Most assists          Matt Coleman              guard
Most steals           Kerwin Roach Jr.          guard
Most blocks           Mohamed Bamba             forward
Most turnovers        Dylan Osetkowski          forward
Most fouls            Mohamed Bamba             forward

Note that Jones has been out with a fractured right wrist, and it is
unclear if he will be able to play.  Eric Davis Jr. also has a wrist
injury, and his status is also uncertain.  He's basically their sixth
man, in terms of minutes played.

Still no word on Billy Preston.  I assume he will not play.  And although
Silvio De Sousa has joined the team, he has not yet been cleared by the NCAA,
nor has he had very many practices with the team, so Kansas will have to go
with the team that produced a 10-2 record in the non-conference.  Bamba may
be foul-prone, but the person he's most likely to foul, namely Azubuike,
can't shoot charities worth a flip.

                                                          10-2            9-3     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Texas   
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +3.43   73   70                #  4   # 67     # 27   # 57 
Sagarin Predictor       +5.01   74   69       64.8     #  3   # 67     # 30   # 57 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.49   72   71                #  6   # 67     # 26   # 57 
Sagarin Recent Games    -2.66   70   73                # 23   # 67     # 26   # 57 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +6.20   70   63                                           
Sagarin Combo           +0.44   72   71                # 10   # 97     # 24   # 89
Sagarin Elo             -3.29   70   73                # 16   # 97     # 29   # 89
Sagarin Blue            +7.44   75   68                #  4   # 97     # 33   # 89
performance adjust      +7.55
trend adjust            -1.26
Massey                  +3.00   69   66       57       # 17   # 25     # 31   # 23 
Pomeroy                 +2.09   70   68                #  6   #106     # 32   # 83
Greenfield              +4.50   72   67                #  5   # 26     # 32   # 13
Dunkel                  +6.00   76   70                #  2            # 40       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +2.00   68   66                                           
Real Time RPI           -5.00   78   83                # 12   # 32     # 41   # 87 
Real Time GAMER         -4.00   79   83       41.8     # 12   # 32     # 41   # 87 
Dolphin Predictive      +3.70   69   65       62.7     #  5            # 33       
ESPN BPI                +4.90                 67.8     #  3   #165     # 36   # 38
Seven Overtimes         -5.00   69   74       50       #  7   # 22     # 21   # 68
Whitlock                +3.02                          #  9   # 17     # 32   # 33       
DPPI                    +9.08   78   69       85.4 
Colley Matrix           +1.33                          # 12   # 15     # 36   # 37
CBN RPI                                                # 17   # 29     # 48   # 83
LRMC                    not on board                                              
common opponents       +28.00
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +3.2 +/- 6.6

Here is Kansas' season; we're back to all remaining games being projected wins,
and the projected season record is back up to 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #214 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.84    +7.16
NEUT   # 20 Kentucky                    65  61    +6.84    -2.84
HOME   # 92 South Dakota State          98  64   +19.89   +14.11
HOME   #199 Texas Southern             114  71   +27.98   +15.02
HOME   #114 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.08   +20.92
HOME   #161 Toledo                      96  58   +24.59   +13.41
NEUT   # 44 Syracuse                    76  60   +10.70    +5.30
HOME   #103 Washington                  65  74   +20.87   -29.87
HOME   # 19 Arizona State               85  95    +9.86   -19.86
AWAY   # 94 Nebraska                    73  72   +13.99   -12.99
HOME   #249 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +31.27   +13.73
AWAY   #109 Stanford                    75  54   +15.30    +5.70
AWAY   # 30 Texas                                 +5.02             0.648
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                            +9.25             0.756
AWAY   # 29 TCU                                   +4.87             0.647
HOME   # 73 Iowa State                           +18.24             0.896
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                         +14.13             0.870
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         +0.50             0.512
HOME   # 26 Baylor                               +10.66             0.792
AWAY   # 18 Oklahoma                              +3.40             0.598
HOME   # 12 Texas A&M                             +8.61             0.737
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                          +7.87             0.734
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                       +14.55             0.864
HOME   # 29 TCU                                  +11.13             0.806
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                                +4.40             0.632
AWAY   # 73 Iowa State                           +11.98             0.795
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +6.76             0.663
HOME   # 18 Oklahoma                              +9.66             0.759
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                            +2.99             0.589
HOME   # 30 Texas                                +11.28             0.803
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +8.29             0.735

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #338 Northwestern State         105  59   +31.61   +14.39
HOME   #254 New Hampshire               78  60   +23.39    -5.39
HOME   #163 Lipscomb                    80  57   +16.60    +6.40
NEUT   # 42 Butler                      61  48    +2.19   +10.81
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        78  85    -8.58    +1.58
NEUT   # 10 Gonzaga                     71  76    -3.27    -1.73
HOME   #342 Florida A&M                 82  58   +33.52    -9.52
AWAY   # 80 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       71  67    +4.36    -0.36
HOME   # 27 Michigan                    52  59    +2.70    -9.70
HOME   #116 Louisiana Tech              75  60   +14.12    +0.88
HOME   #214 Tennessee State             47  46   +20.69   -19.69
NEUT   # 53 Alabama                     66  50    +4.21   +11.79
HOME   #  3 Kansas                                -5.02             0.352
AWAY   # 73 Iowa State                            +3.83             0.628
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                                -3.75             0.352
HOME   # 29 TCU                                   +2.98             0.621
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +0.14             0.506
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                            +1.10             0.543
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         -7.65             0.286
HOME   # 73 Iowa State                           +10.09             0.806
HOME   # 89 Mississippi                          +11.26             0.857
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                            -5.16             0.306
HOME   # 18 Oklahoma                              +1.51             0.556
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                          +5.98             0.743
AWAY   # 29 TCU                                   -3.28             0.367
HOME   # 26 Baylor                                +2.51             0.600
AWAY   # 18 Oklahoma                              -4.75             0.329
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                          -0.28             0.488
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +6.40             0.738
AWAY   #  3 Kansas                               -11.28             0.197
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         -1.39             0.459