initial Big 12 projection

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

So begins the quest for #14 in a row.  The Sagarin Predictor ratings as of Saturday's games,
which were the last non-conference games to be played prior to the onset of conference action,
give Kansas a two-game lead in the initial projection.  West Virginia is a legitimate
contender, while Texas Tech needs to show they're worthy of their lofty ranking after playing
something besides the #333 ranked schedule in Division I.  Yeah, they beat Nevada, Northwestern,
and Boston College (who beat Duke), all Top 100 opponents, as well as a somewhat weaker Wofford
team (who beat North Carolina), but lost to Seton Hall.  Still, with the way Trae Young has been
playing, I'd put Oklahoma ahead of Texas Tech in the projection.  The Sooners open on the road
against an undefeated TCU team, and are projected to lose, but by only 1.5 points, so they have
a 46 percent chance of winning.  It's a crucial game to open conference play.  Indeed, all five
games have predicted margins of fewer than 5 points, which means they could easily go either way.

                      Init.
Pred                  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  3  Kansas          13.09    0  0  @UT  (Fr)   KU  by  4.9  projected road win
#  8  West Virginia   11.22    0  0  @OSU (Fr)   WVU by  4.7  projected road win
# 15  Texas Tech      10.24    0  0   BU  (Fr)   TTU by  4.5
# 18  Oklahoma         9.97    0  0  @TCU (Sa)
# 26  Baylor           9.34    0  0  @TTU (Fr)
# 30  TCU              8.93    0  0   OU  (Sa)   TCU by  1.5
# 29  Texas            8.92    0  0   KU  (Fr)
# 45  Kansas State     6.82    0  0  @ISU (Fr)   KSU by  1.0  projected road win
# 51  Oklahoma State   6.64    0  0   WVU (Fr)
# 74  Iowa State       4.83    0  0   KSU (Fr)

ESPN's BPI includes a "Matchup Quality" index, and the top three games on Friday are all in the
Big 12.  Friday's fourth Big 12 game is #6 in the list.  The lone Big 12 Saturday game is 5th.
Can you believe that Dick Vitale said the Big 12 is down this year???

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real
KU  over UT      4.9   3.0   2.1                     2.6   3.8   3.0   4.7  -5.0   7.4   7.8  -1.2  -4.0
WVU over OSU     4.7   1.0   3.0                     2.1   3.0   1.6   2.8  -5.0   4.4   4.8   6.2  -3.0
TTU over BU      4.5   5.0   5.2                     7.5   8.5   9.5   7.2   9.0   7.1   6.7   6.4  17.0
TCU over OU      1.5   3.0   1.5                     7.5   1.2   2.0   5.8   5.0  -3.6  -4.1  -4.9  11.0
KSU over ISU     1.0  -2.0   0.7                    -6.7   2.0   0.5  -1.1   0.0   4.6   5.0 -11.7  -9.0

Last season we saw 35 road wins out of 90 games, which might be a record for as long as
I've been tracking the conference.  The long term average has been right around one in
three, or 30 road wins per season.  32 or 33 would not be unusual; 35 is.  But we're
starting with a clean slate.  There are 3 road wins projected for Round 1.

Road wins (0 out of 0)                      Home losses                         Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------   --------------------
0 Baylor                                    0 Baylor                             0 Baylor        
0 Iowa State                                0 Iowa State                         0 Iowa State    
0 Kansas                                    0 Kansas                             0 Kansas        
0 Kansas State                              0 Kansas State                       0 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma                                  0 Oklahoma                           0 Oklahoma      
0 Oklahoma State                            0 Oklahoma State                     0 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                       0 TCU                                0 TCU           
0 Texas                                     0 Texas                              0 Texas         
0 Texas Tech                                0 Texas Tech                         0 Texas Tech    
0 West Virginia                             0 West Virginia                      0 West Virginia 

Perhaps amazingly, Kansas is not the most inconsistent team in the Big 12.  West Virginia
played 30 points above expectation against Morgan State and 25 points below expectation
against Texas A&M.  Kansas played "only" 21 points above expectation against Oakland and
30 points below expectation against Washington, giving the Jayhawks ninth place in the
conference in inconsistency.  But Kansas is dead last in both trend and mental toughness.
That four-game stretch from South Dakota State to Toledo was all strongly above expectation,
followed by that three-game stretch from Washington to Nebraska, which was all strongly below
expectation.  And the strongly above expectation games have come against the weakest teams in
the schedule, leading to the worst mental toughness value I've seen.  And it has some statistical
significance to it as well.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Texas Tech      +2.65    Kansas State      8.28    
Kansas          +2.47    TCU               9.34    
Oklahoma        +2.37    Baylor            9.60    
TCU             +0.71    Oklahoma State   10.10    
Oklahoma State  +0.43    Texas            10.31    
West Virginia   +0.33    Texas Tech       10.34    
Baylor          +0.02    Oklahoma         11.47    
Texas           -0.01    Iowa State       13.10    
Kansas State    -0.17    Kansas           15.68    
Iowa State      -3.75    West Virginia    16.32    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma        +0.91 +/- 1.11    Iowa State      +0.50 +/- 0.34
Iowa State      +0.70 +/- 1.30    Oklahoma        +0.22 +/- 0.32
TCU             +0.04 +/- 0.82    TCU             +0.15 +/- 0.38
West Virginia   -0.09 +/- 1.43    Texas           +0.11 +/- 0.24
Baylor          -0.56 +/- 0.95    Texas Tech      +0.11 +/- 0.28
Texas Tech      -0.64 +/- 0.88    Baylor           0.00 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma State  -0.93 +/- 0.84    Kansas State    -0.14 +/- 0.25
Kansas State    -0.95 +/- 0.66    Oklahoma State  -0.17 +/- 0.26
Texas           -1.17 +/- 0.82    West Virginia   -0.22 +/- 0.40
Kansas          -1.37 +/- 1.31    Kansas          -0.95 +/- 0.53

Look at Oklahoma's average offense; in the 90s!  But their defense is also allowing way too
many points.  Those 174 total point games are eye-popping.  Texas Tech's league-leading
scoring margin was produced against the league's easiest schedule.  Heck, half the conference
has strengths of schedule in the 300s out of 351 Division I teams.  Give Texas some credit
for having played Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan, Butler, Alabama, and VCU.  What I don't understand
is why Baylor's strength of schedule is rated 320; they've played Xavier, Wichita State,
Creighton, and Wisconsin, who are all in the Top 60.  Yeah, the rest were cupcakes, including
a Division II school (and that's Division II in the NCCAA, not the NCAA), but four marquee
opponents ought to be a stronger schedule than #320.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma        94.18   Texas Tech      60.17   Oklahoma        174.18   Texas Tech      +20.00   
Kansas          86.50   Texas           61.42   TCU             160.08   Kansas          +19.83   
TCU             86.00   Kansas State    63.08   Kansas          153.17   West Virginia   +19.33   
West Virginia   83.75   West Virginia   64.42   West Virginia   148.17   Baylor          +14.18   
Baylor          80.18   Baylor          66.00   Baylor          146.18   Oklahoma        +14.18   
Texas Tech      80.17   Kansas          66.67   Oklahoma State  145.08   Kansas State    +12.83   
Oklahoma State  77.92   Oklahoma State  67.17   Iowa State      144.91   TCU             +11.92   
Kansas State    75.92   Iowa State      70.45   Texas Tech      140.33   Oklahoma State  +10.75   
Iowa State      74.45   TCU             74.08   Kansas State    139.00   Texas            +9.75   
Texas           71.17   Oklahoma        80.00   Texas           132.58   Iowa State       +4.00   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Texas           75.19 ( 59)
Kansas          74.82 ( 69)
Oklahoma        74.08 ( 98)
TCU             71.44 (197)
Iowa State      69.80 (272)
West Virginia   68.48 (301)
Oklahoma State  68.28 (306)
Baylor          67.74 (320)
Kansas State    67.72 (323)
Texas Tech      66.63 (333)