predictions for Stanford game

I forgot to mention that Washington was a common opponent for the Omaha game.
Omaha lost by 13 points on the road, suggesting that they would have lost by
only 10 on a neutral court.  Meanwhile, Kansas lost to Washington by 9 on what
is effectively the Jayhawks' home court, suggesting that they would have lost
to the Huskies by 12 on a neutral court.  That made Omaha 2 points better than
Kansas.  Maybe it was a good thing that I forgot to mention it.

Sigh, another Pac 12 opponent.  Kansas has lost to the last three Pac 12
teams they've played.  Then again, Stanford is the weakest Pac 12 team of
those four.  Then again, using Sagarin's "Recent Games" rating, Stanford
would be a 2 point favorite.  But Omaha was a 2 point favorite using the
one common opponent.  Actually, Sagarin appears to be treating the game as
a neutral court affair (it's in Sacramento, right?), but that's sort of like
treating the Sprint Center as a neutral site for the Kansas-Washington game.
Anyway, it boosts Kansas by half of the usual home advantage (currently 3.17
points, or 1.58 points for this game), so reduce all of the Sagarin margins
by about 1.6 points if you think this is really a road game for Kansas.

Once again, Seven Overtimes is way out in left field with its prediction,
and I don't understand how such a small margin translates into such a large
probability of victory.  Furthermore, they have Stanford's record as 6-5,
so they're missing a loss.  Indeed, Stanford has lost all three of its games
against top tier opponents.  Their best win is against middle tier
Northeastern, though they played the most above expectation against
middle tier Montana.  But even a repeat of that performance isn't enough to
overcome the predicted margin for today's game.

Don hasn't sent me an updated list of predictions based on the DPPI since the
Arizona State loss, so take that 27 point margin with a grain of salt.

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except
free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  Among the seven defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in all.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Reid Travis               forward
Leading scorer        Reid Travis               forward
Leading rebounder     Michael Humphrey          forward
Most assists          Daejon Davis              guard
Most steals           Reid Travis               forward
Most blocks           Josh Sharma               center
Most turnovers        Daejon Davis              guard
Most fouls            Michael Humphrey          forward

Dorian Pickens, who had been averaging almost 20 minutes per game has been
out with a foot injury.  Its unknown when he will return.

                                                           9-2             6-6    
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Stanford  
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +14.74   83   69                #  5   # 91     #121   #178 
Sagarin Predictor      +18.03   85   67       89.7     #  3   # 91     #131   #178
Sagarin Golden Mean    +14.11   83   69                #  4   # 91     #101   #178 
Sagarin Recent Games    -1.94   75   77                # 62   # 91     # 54   #178 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +20.37   84   64                                           
Sagarin Combo          +16.60   84   68                #  5   #112     #157   #188
Sagarin Elo            +14.01   83   69                # 13   #112     #166   #188
Sagarin Blue           +21.72   87   65                #  3   #112     #150   #188
Massey                 +15.00   82   67       91       # 19   # 22     #160   # 90 
Pomeroy                +10.30   78   68                #  7   #120     #107   #186 
Greenfield             +16.00   82   66                #  4   # 27     #110   #116 
Dunkel                 +17.00   85.5 68.5              #  1            #159        
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +14.50   81   67                                           
Real Time RPI          +16.00   90   74                # 13   # 29     #151   #118 
Real Time GAMER        +16.00   90   74       82.3     # 13   # 29     #151   #118 
Dolphin Predictive     +13.28   82   69       86.3     #  4            #136        
ESPN BPI               +13.00                 86.9     #  2   #197     #137   #220 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   77   75       73       # 10   # 34     #101   # 45 
Whitlock               +13.60                          # 10   # 23     #146   # 50 
DPPI                   +27.47   89   62       99.0
Colley Matrix          +11.72                          # 14   # 28     #292   # 79 
CBN RPI                                                # 21   # 29     #152   #108 
LRMC                    not on board                                               
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +14.5 +/- 6.1

Here is Kansas' season; the West Virginia road game is still a projected loss,
but it's the only one.  The projected season record is now up to 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #194 Tennessee State             92  56   +27.66    +8.34
NEUT   # 24 Kentucky                    65  61    +7.60    -3.60
HOME   # 95 South Dakota State          98  64   +20.26   +13.74
HOME   #186 Texas Southern             114  71   +27.00   +16.00
HOME   #126 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.54   +20.46
HOME   #173 Toledo                      96  58   +25.52   +12.48
NEUT   # 39 Syracuse                    76  60   +10.30    +5.70
HOME   # 97 Washington                  65  74   +20.52   -29.52
HOME   # 17 Arizona State               85  95    +8.64   -18.64
AWAY   # 87 Nebraska                    73  72   +12.85   -11.85
HOME   #278 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)          109  64   +32.76   +12.24
AWAY   #131 Stanford                             +16.45             0.897
AWAY   # 37 Texas                                 +5.97             0.668
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            +7.95             0.718
AWAY   # 22 TCU                                   +4.20             0.620
HOME   # 89 Iowa State                           +19.59             0.923
HOME   # 49 Kansas State                         +14.34             0.868
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                         -0.12             0.497
HOME   # 25 Baylor                               +10.82             0.784
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma                              +3.85             0.610
HOME   # 10 Texas A&M                             +7.66             0.711
AWAY   # 49 Kansas State                          +8.00             0.734
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                       +14.36             0.851
HOME   # 22 TCU                                  +10.54             0.777
AWAY   # 25 Baylor                                +4.48             0.627
AWAY   # 89 Iowa State                           +13.25             0.832
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         +6.22             0.674
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma                             +10.19             0.770
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            +1.61             0.547
HOME   # 37 Texas                                +12.31             0.814
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +8.02             0.720

Here is Stanford's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #269 Cal Poly-SLO                78  62   +12.21    +3.79
HOME   #190 Pacific                     89  80    +7.90    +1.10
HOME   #178 Eastern Washington          61  67    +6.50   -12.50
HOME   #133 Northeastern                73  59    +3.24   +10.76
HOME   #  8 North Carolina              72  96   -12.58   -11.42
NEUT   # 32 Florida                     87 108   -11.34    -9.66
NEUT   # 38 Ohio State                  71  79    -9.68    +1.68
NEUT   #123 Portland State              78  87    -0.51    -8.49
HOME   #147 Montana                     70  54    +4.34   +11.66
AWAY   #226 Long Beach State            68  76    +3.47   -11.47
HOME   #277 Denver                      75  62   +13.14    -0.14
HOME   #164 San Francisco               71  59    +5.63    +6.37
HOME   #  3 Kansas                               -16.45             0.103