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predictions for Omaha game

  • asteroid
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7 years 6 months ago #14850 by asteroid
The Mavericks are the weakest opponent on the Kansas schedule.  After four
double-digit more-than-expectation performances, Kansas has had three
double-digit less-than-expectation performances, leading to a whopping
16.7 point inconsistency, way above the national average of 11 points.
Even with that, the probability of winning today's game is nearly 99 percent.
Maybe we'll see a little bit more of Cunliffe, along with Young and Teahan.

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except
free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  Among the seven defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in all.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Mitchell Hahn             forward
Leading scorer        Zach Jackson              guard
Leading rebounder     Mitchell Hahn             forward
Most assists          KJ Robinson               guard
Most steals           JT Gibson                 guard
Most blocks           Matt Pile                 forward
Most turnovers        KJ Robinson               guard
Most fouls            Lamar Wofford-Humphrey    forward

Mitchell Hahn has a right shoulder separation and is not expected to play.

                                                           8-2            3-10     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Omaha    
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +29.19   94   65                #  8   # 80     #269   # 99 
Sagarin Predictor      +31.24   95   63       98.8     #  2   # 80     #268   # 99
Sagarin Golden Mean    +29.41   94   65                #  8   # 80     #262   # 99 
Sagarin Recent Games   +22.08   90   68                # 60   # 80     #299   # 99 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +34.44   97   63                                           
Sagarin Combo          +32.27   95   63                #  7   # 88     #275   # 58
Sagarin Elo            +31.55   95   63                # 11   # 88     #274   # 58
Sagarin Blue           +34.30   96   62                #  5   # 88     #274   # 58
Massey                 +30.00   98   68       99       # 19   # 21     #284   #129 
Pomeroy                +26.35   89   63                #  9   #107     #274   # 82
Greenfield             +33.50   97   63.5              #  5   # 35     #261   #147
Dunkel                 +25.00   93   68                #  1            #275       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +30.00   92   62                                           
Real Time RPI          +46.00   88   42                #  2   #  8     #221   #114
Real Time GAMER        +45.00   88   43       99.6     #  2   #  4     #221   #114
Dolphin Predictive     +27.55   94   66       98.6     #  7            #268       
ESPN BPI               +28.40                 98.2     #  4   #163     #250   # 55
Seven Overtimes        +25.00   92   67       98       # 16   # 33     #284   # 97
Whitlock               +28.52                          # 12   # 16     #284   #115
DPPI                   +37.68   98   60       99.9
Colley Matrix          +30.88                          # 15   #  8     #292   # 79
CBN RPI                                                # 18   # 19     #275   #135
LRMC                    not on board                                              
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +31.4 +/- 5.9

Here is Kansas' season; the West Virginia road game is still a projected loss,
but it's the only one.  The projected season record remains at 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #231 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.69    +7.31
NEUT   # 31 Kentucky                    65  61    +6.90    -2.90
HOME   # 94 South Dakota State          98  64   +19.26   +14.74
HOME   #186 Texas Southern             114  71   +26.22   +16.78
HOME   #139 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +22.40   +20.60
HOME   #183 Toledo                      96  58   +25.71   +12.29
NEUT   # 43 Syracuse                    76  60    +9.33    +6.67
HOME   #124 Washington                  65  74   +21.60   -30.60
HOME   # 14 Arizona State               85  95    +7.38   -17.38
AWAY   # 90 Nebraska                    73  72   +11.86   -10.86
HOME   #268 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +31.24             0.988
AWAY   #126 Stanford                             +15.39             0.862
AWAY   # 33 Texas                                 +3.76             0.605
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                            +7.71             0.707
AWAY   # 26 TCU                                   +3.13             0.587
HOME   # 72 Iowa State                           +16.59             0.880
HOME   # 46 Kansas State                         +12.83             0.834
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         -1.25             0.465
HOME   # 24 Baylor                                +9.22             0.743
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                              +2.88             0.581
HOME   # 10 Texas A&M                             +5.89             0.662
AWAY   # 46 Kansas State                          +6.43             0.687
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                       +13.12             0.823
HOME   # 26 TCU                                   +9.53             0.749
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                                +2.82             0.579
AWAY   # 72 Iowa State                           +10.19             0.764
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +5.15             0.642
HOME   # 25 Oklahoma                              +9.28             0.744
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                            +1.31             0.537
HOME   # 33 Texas                                +10.16             0.764
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +6.72             0.683

Here is Omaha's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #241 Montana State               80  89    -1.85    -7.15
AWAY   # 25 Oklahoma                    89 108   -25.16    +6.16
AWAY   #163 New Mexico                  71 103   -10.38   -21.62
AWAY   # 30 Louisville                  78  87   -24.60   +15.60
AWAY   # 26 TCU                         66  99   -24.91    -8.09
NEUT   #192 Tennessee Tech              85  86    -4.73    +3.73
NEUT   #326 Jackson State               73  75    +5.63    -7.63
HOME   #207 Drake                       75  73    -0.61    +2.61
AWAY   #124 Washington                  73  86   -12.84    -0.16
AWAY   #110 UC Santa Barbara            70  77   -13.80    +6.80
AWAY   #207 Drake                       74  93    -7.01   -11.99
HOME   #260 Arkansas State              77  74    +2.68    +0.32
Div3        Cornell College             99  58
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -31.24             0.012
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, Bayhawk, jayhawk969

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