predictions for Arizona State game

Interestingly, Self didn't make any comments about the Topeka YMCA, like he
did five years ago after the Jayhawks lost in embarrassing fashion to TCU
in Fort Worth,  even though the Washington game had a similarly unlikely
outcome.  Even if the latest Sagarin predictor ratings are used, which
include the outcome of the game, Kansas is still favored by 21.6 points,
and now both Kansas and Washington have inconsistencies greater than the
national average, yet the probability of Kansas winning the game is still
way up there at 93.9 percent.  Would Kansas beat Washington 94 times out
of 100 games played?  It sure didn't look like they would.  But that's why
they play the games.  Even if the odds were just one chance to win out of
ten thousand, that one could occur at any random time.

Well, Washington is now behind us, and Arizona State is ahead of us.  Like
Syracuse, the Sun Devils are undefeated coming into the game.  That's good
for the Jayhawks' RPI, especially if Kansas can pull off the win.  Ranked
somewhat higher than Syracuse, but not as high as Kentucky, Arizona State
has the disadvantage of playing Kansas in Lawrence rather than on a neutral
court.  I do wonder, however, if Sagarin thinks this game is being played
on a neutral court, because his own "New Feature" listing shows Kansas with
just an 11.19 point margin, which you can get from his ratings only if you
use half of the stated home court advantage.  Another curiosity is what
Sagarin uses for total points, because his offense-defense method, the only
one that comes with his own predicted score, consistently yields more total
points than the averages of the two teams playing, which is what I use for
all of his other ratings methods.  By the way, as you can see in the table
below, Kansas is still #1 in Predictor, therefore predicted to win by a
double-digit margin, whereas Kansas is way down at #82 in Recent Games,
with a predicted loss today by double digits.

Pomeroy has Arizona State with the better offense by 2.1 points, but Kansas
has the better defense by a whopping 13.4 points.  Makes sense.  The Sun
Devils gave up 86 points to Xavier, their strongest opponent, and 90 points
to Kansas State, their second-strongest opponent.  They beat the Wildcats,
so the honor of the state of Kansas rests with the Jayhawks.

Dunkel finally came out with his first rankings of the season, and Kansas
topped the list with a 7-0 record, but he hasn't updated those rankings
since Wednesday.  He's picking Arizona State against the spread, but Kansas
in the game.  It's the highlighted game of the day.

Colley also hasn't updated his rankings since Wednesday.

And once again, the math for Seven Overtimes doesn't make any sense.  He
has Kansas favored by 6 points, but with just a 49 percent probability of
winning the game.

Just how for-real is Washington?  We may find out today.  The Huskies are
playing Gonzaga.

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except
free throw attempts per field goal attempt, offensive rebound percentage,
and points per game.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in all.  Wow.  But consistent with Pomeroy's defense ratings.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Shannon Evans             guard
Leading scorer        Tra Holder                guard
Leading rebounder     Romello White             forward
Most assists          Shannon Evans             guard
Most steals           Shannon Evans             guard
Most blocks           De'Quon Lake              forward
Most turnovers        Romello White             forward
Most fouls            Vitaliy Shibel            forward

It should be noted that forward Mickey Mitchell had to sit out the first
eight games due to NCAA transfer rules.  He is supposedly eligible to play
against Kansas, though I'm not sure why that might be the case, as Cunliffe
is NOT eligible to play, because the fall semester isn't over yet.  Did the
fall semester already end at Arizona State?  Would seem unfair in this case.

Forward Kimani Lawrence is out with a stress fracture in his foot, and
forward Zylan Cheatham is out due to eligibility issues, so the Sun Devils
have a thinner roster as well.

                                                           7-1             8-0     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Arizona State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         +6.88   82   76                #  7   #138     # 28   #132 
Sagarin Predictor      +11.19   85   73       84.3     #  1   #138     # 33   #132 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.23   83   75                #  5   #138     # 26   #132 
Sagarin Recent Games   -10.25   74   84                # 82   #138     #  7   #132 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth    +8.66   88   79                                           
Sagarin Combo           +0.02   79   79                # 12   #177     #  4   #198
Sagarin Elo             -3.19   77   81                # 25   #177     #  6   #198
Sagarin Blue            +8.25   83   75                #  2   #177     # 13   #198
Massey                 +13.00   89   76       88       #  8   # 33     # 21   # 74 
Pomeroy                +11.26   82   71                #  4   #164     # 43   #174
Greenfield             +12.50   87   75                #  2   # 39     # 43   # 43
Dunkel                  +7.00   85.5 78.5              #  1            # 43       
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.00   84   73                                           
Real Time RPI          +23.00   89   66                #  2   # 14     # 46   # 69
Real Time GAMER        +22.00   89   67       93.2     #  2   # 14     #164   # 59
Dolphin Predictive     +11.65   87   76       81.8     #  3            # 28       
ESPN BPI               +14.60                 89.0     #  2   #236     # 34   #147
Seven Overtimes         +6.00   82   76       49       #  6   # 47     #  9   # 49
Whitlock                +3.43                          #  6   # 38     #  8   # 70
DPPI                    +9.53   84  74        80.4
Colley Matrix           +6.16                          #  2   # 23     #  8   #108
CBN RPI                                                # 15   # 26     #  9   # 59
LRMC                    not on board                                              
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 +8.6 

Here is Kansas' season, still favored in every game, though the West Virginia
road game margin is down to a fraction of a point, and the projected season
record has dropped back down to where it started, namely 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #203 Tennessee State             92  56   +29.26    +6.74
NEUT   # 19 Kentucky                    65  61    +7.27    -3.27
HOME   #110 South Dakota State          98  64   +22.60   +11.40
HOME   #198 Texas Southern             114  71   +29.02   +13.98
HOME   #130 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +24.21   +18.79
HOME   #162 Toledo                      96  58   +26.02   +11.98
NEUT   # 42 Syracuse                    76  60   +11.33    +4.67
HOME   #100 Washington                  65  74   +21.64   -30.64
HOME   # 33 Arizona State                        +12.77             0.843
AWAY   # 94 Nebraska                             +14.64             0.861
HOME   #257 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +32.15             0.991
AWAY   #109 Stanford                             +16.23             0.886
AWAY   # 24 Texas                                 +4.83             0.640
HOME   # 20 Texas Tech                           +10.71             0.787
AWAY   # 26 TCU                                   +4.97             0.643
HOME   # 67 Iowa State                           +17.63             0.905
HOME   # 44 Kansas State                         +14.69             0.880
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         +0.59             0.517
HOME   # 21 Baylor                               +10.93             0.791
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +6.12             0.675
HOME   # 13 Texas A&M                             +9.55             0.761
AWAY   # 44 Kansas State                          +8.35             0.748
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma State                       +15.76             0.879
HOME   # 26 TCU                                  +11.31             0.799
AWAY   # 21 Baylor                                +4.59             0.633
AWAY   # 67 Iowa State                           +11.29             0.799
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +6.93             0.696
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                             +12.46             0.822
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                            +4.37             0.627
HOME   # 24 Texas                                +11.17             0.796
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma State                        +9.42             0.758

Here is Arizona State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #316 Idaho State                 94  74   +26.99    -6.99
HOME   # 57 San Diego State             90  68    +6.99   +15.01
HOME   #328 Northern Arizona            97  62   +28.79    +6.21
HOME   #182 UC Irvine                   99  78   +18.15    +2.85
NEUT   # 44 Kansas State                92  90    +1.92    +0.08
NEUT   #  9 Xavier-Ohio                102  86    -5.50   +21.50
HOME   #159 San Francisco               75  57   +16.26    +1.74
NEUT   # 54 St. John's                  82  70    +3.34    +8.66
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -12.77             0.157