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predictions for Washington game

  • asteroid
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1 week 3 days ago #14726 by asteroid
Another game with a wide difference of opinion in predicted game margins.
Sagarin's offense-defense method checks in with a whopping 32.44 point
margin in favor of Kansas.  Sagarin Blue (pure least squares) is close
behind at 31.72 points.  Meanwhile, Sagarin Recent Games is way down at
16.65 points.  A close comparison of my game table below and Sagarin
Predictor, which is used for the table, shows a discrepancy, which can
be explained by Sagarin treating this game as a semi-home game, whereas
I am treating it as a home game, so Sagarin is using a smaller home
court advantage than I am.  Also note that my probability of victory is
not truly 100 percent, but rather rounded up from something greater than
99.95 percent.  That probability is higher than it would be if I had
used instead the national average for inconsistency of 11 points.  Both
teams have been more consistent than that, with Kansas down at 7.3 points
and Washington even better at 5.2 points.  More consistency makes it that
much hard for the margin to be overcome.  Also noteworthy is the fact
that Kansas is playing a whopping 7.7 points above expectation, on
average, while Washington is playing 0.9 points below expectation.  So
add 9 points to the predicted margin, and it could very well be the 30+
point ass-kicking that Sagarin's offense-defense method predicts.  Or
the 40 point romp that Real Time predicts, especially if Dickerson is
out.  Seven Overtimes is once again the odd man out, predicting a 1 point
win by Kansas; somehow that translates into a 74 percent probability of
winning.  Something screwy with the math there.

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except
free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and offensive rebound
percentage.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in all except offensive rebounds per game, and steals per game.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Jaylen Nowell             guard
Leading scorer        Jaylen Nowell             guard
Leading rebounder     Noah Dickerson            forward
Most assists          David Crisp               guard
Most steals           Matisse Thybulle          guard
Most blocks           Matisse Thybulle          guard
Most turnovers        Noah Dickerson            forward
Most fouls            Noah Dickerson            forward

It should be noted that Noah Dickerson left the previous game with a
shoulder injury, and it is unclear whether he will be able to play
today's game or not.  If he does not, it could be addition by subtraction,
considering how he leads the team in both turnovers and fouls.  On the other
hand, he is their leading rebounder.

                                                           7-0             6-2     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Washington
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +22.54   90   67                #  1   #142     #110   #246 
Sagarin Predictor      +23.77   90   66      100.0     #  1   #142     #115   #246 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +20.60   89   68                #  2   #142     # 96   #246 
Sagarin Recent Games   +16.65   87   70                #  8   #142     #105   #246 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +32.44   99   66                                           
Sagarin Combo          +21.05   89   68                #  3   #158     #103   #238
Sagarin Elo            +17.02   87   70                #  8   #158     # 94   #238
Sagarin Blue           +31.72   94   62                #  1   #158     #123   #238
Massey                 +21      91   70       96       #  2   # 22     #103   #157 
Pomeroy                +22.74   87   65                #  2   #172     #140   #278 
Greenfield             +21.5    90   68.5              #  1   # 31     #148   #169 
Dunkel                 +18.5    92   74                                            
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +21      89   68                                           
Real Time RPI          +40      90   50                #  2   # 14     #164   # 59 
Real Time GAMER        +39      90   51       99.1     #  2   # 14     #164   # 59 
Dolphin Predictive     +25.98   94   68       97.8     #  1            #124        
ESPN BPI               +24.3                  96.8     #  2   #216     #185   #221 
Seven Overtimes         +1      79   78       74       #  1   # 75     #106   #259 
Whitlock               +22.36                          #  2   # 34     # 99   # 58 
Colley Matrix          +15.49                          #  2   # 23     # 64   #154 
CBN RPI                                                #  3   # 38     #109   #180 
LRMC                    not on board                                               
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +22.9

Here is Kansas' season, still favored in every game, projected season record is
still 28-3:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #207 Tennessee State             92  56   +31.06    +4.94
NEUT   # 17 Kentucky                    65  61    +9.08    -5.08
HOME   #105 South Dakota State          98  64   +24.13    +9.87
HOME   #192 Texas Southern             114  71   +30.46   +12.54
HOME   #128 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +25.99   +17.01
HOME   #139 Toledo                      96  58   +26.70   +11.30
NEUT   # 41 Syracuse                    76  60   +12.56    +3.44
HOME   #115 Washington                           +25.35             1.000
HOME   # 35 Arizona State                        +14.96             0.946
AWAY   # 96 Nebraska                             +16.71             0.963
HOME   #241 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +33.25             1.000
AWAY   #106 Stanford                             +18.13             0.974
AWAY   # 24 Texas                                 +6.61             0.761
HOME   # 21 Texas Tech                           +12.64             0.912
AWAY   # 25 TCU                                   +6.89             0.769
HOME   # 65 Iowa State                           +19.54             0.982
HOME   # 37 Kansas State                         +15.32             0.974
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                         +2.12             0.590
HOME   # 23 Baylor                               +12.91             0.917
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma                              +8.49             0.819
HOME   # 13 Texas A&M                            +10.96             0.880
AWAY   # 37 Kansas State                          +9.00             0.874
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma State                       +17.17             0.967
HOME   # 25 TCU                                  +13.21             0.921
AWAY   # 23 Baylor                                +6.59             0.760
AWAY   # 65 Iowa State                           +13.22             0.922
HOME   #  7 West Virginia                         +8.44             0.817
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma                             +14.81             0.944
AWAY   # 21 Texas Tech                            +6.32             0.751
HOME   # 24 Texas                                +12.93             0.917
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma State                       +10.85             0.878

Here is Washington's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #109 Belmont                     86  82    +2.60    +1.40
HOME   #215 Eastern Washington          79  69    +9.31    +0.69
NEUT   # 45 Providence                  70  77    -8.55    +1.55
NEUT   # 29 Virginia Tech               79 103   -11.22   -12.78
HOME   #208 Seattle                     89  84    +8.88    -3.88
HOME   #126 UC Davis                    77  70    +3.75    +3.25
HOME   #285 Kennesaw State              85  71   +13.70    +0.30
HOME   #241 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           86  73   +11.06    +1.94
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -25.35             0.000
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, porthawk, murphyslaw, jaythawk1

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1 week 3 days ago #14729 by DocBlues
Great stuff, asteriod. Thanks, as always, for your efforts!
The following user(s) said Thank You: jaythawk1

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