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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Washington game
- asteroid
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6 years 4 months ago #14726
by asteroid
Another game with a wide difference of opinion in predicted game margins.
Sagarin's offense-defense method checks in with a whopping 32.44 point
margin in favor of Kansas. Sagarin Blue (pure least squares) is close
behind at 31.72 points. Meanwhile, Sagarin Recent Games is way down at
16.65 points. A close comparison of my game table below and Sagarin
Predictor, which is used for the table, shows a discrepancy, which can
be explained by Sagarin treating this game as a semi-home game, whereas
I am treating it as a home game, so Sagarin is using a smaller home
court advantage than I am. Also note that my probability of victory is
not truly 100 percent, but rather rounded up from something greater than
99.95 percent. That probability is higher than it would be if I had
used instead the national average for inconsistency of 11 points. Both
teams have been more consistent than that, with Kansas down at 7.3 points
and Washington even better at 5.2 points. More consistency makes it that
much hard for the margin to be overcome. Also noteworthy is the fact
that Kansas is playing a whopping 7.7 points above expectation, on
average, while Washington is playing 0.9 points below expectation. So
add 9 points to the predicted margin, and it could very well be the 30+
point ass-kicking that Sagarin's offense-defense method predicts. Or
the 40 point romp that Real Time predicts, especially if Dickerson is
out. Seven Overtimes is once again the odd man out, predicting a 1 point
win by Kansas; somehow that translates into a 74 percent probability of
winning. Something screwy with the math there.
Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except
free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and offensive rebound
percentage. Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in all except offensive rebounds per game, and steals per game.
Players to Watch
================
Most minutes Jaylen Nowell guard
Leading scorer Jaylen Nowell guard
Leading rebounder Noah Dickerson forward
Most assists David Crisp guard
Most steals Matisse Thybulle guard
Most blocks Matisse Thybulle guard
Most turnovers Noah Dickerson forward
Most fouls Noah Dickerson forward
It should be noted that Noah Dickerson left the previous game with a
shoulder injury, and it is unclear whether he will be able to play
today's game or not. If he does not, it could be addition by subtraction,
considering how he leads the team in both turnovers and fouls. On the other
hand, he is their leading rebounder.
7-0 6-2
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Washington
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============= =============
Sagarin Overall +22.54 90 67 # 1 #142 #110 #246
Sagarin Predictor +23.77 90 66 100.0 # 1 #142 #115 #246
Sagarin Golden Mean +20.60 89 68 # 2 #142 # 96 #246
Sagarin Recent Games +16.65 87 70 # 8 #142 #105 #246
Sagarin Off-Def Meth +32.44 99 66
Sagarin Combo +21.05 89 68 # 3 #158 #103 #238
Sagarin Elo +17.02 87 70 # 8 #158 # 94 #238
Sagarin Blue +31.72 94 62 # 1 #158 #123 #238
Massey +21 91 70 96 # 2 # 22 #103 #157
Pomeroy +22.74 87 65 # 2 #172 #140 #278
Greenfield +21.5 90 68.5 # 1 # 31 #148 #169
Dunkel +18.5 92 74
Vegas (via Dunkel) +21 89 68
Real Time RPI +40 90 50 # 2 # 14 #164 # 59
Real Time GAMER +39 90 51 99.1 # 2 # 14 #164 # 59
Dolphin Predictive +25.98 94 68 97.8 # 1 #124
ESPN BPI +24.3 96.8 # 2 #216 #185 #221
Seven Overtimes +1 79 78 74 # 1 # 75 #106 #259
Whitlock +22.36 # 2 # 34 # 99 # 58
Colley Matrix +15.49 # 2 # 23 # 64 #154
CBN RPI # 3 # 38 #109 #180
LRMC not on board
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +22.9
Here is Kansas' season, still favored in every game, projected season record is
still 28-3:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #207 Tennessee State 92 56 +31.06 +4.94
NEUT # 17 Kentucky 65 61 +9.08 -5.08
HOME #105 South Dakota State 98 64 +24.13 +9.87
HOME #192 Texas Southern 114 71 +30.46 +12.54
HOME #128 Oakland-Mich. 102 59 +25.99 +17.01
HOME #139 Toledo 96 58 +26.70 +11.30
NEUT # 41 Syracuse 76 60 +12.56 +3.44
HOME #115 Washington +25.35 1.000
HOME # 35 Arizona State +14.96 0.946
AWAY # 96 Nebraska +16.71 0.963
HOME #241 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) +33.25 1.000
AWAY #106 Stanford +18.13 0.974
AWAY # 24 Texas +6.61 0.761
HOME # 21 Texas Tech +12.64 0.912
AWAY # 25 TCU +6.89 0.769
HOME # 65 Iowa State +19.54 0.982
HOME # 37 Kansas State +15.32 0.974
AWAY # 7 West Virginia +2.12 0.590
HOME # 23 Baylor +12.91 0.917
AWAY # 33 Oklahoma +8.49 0.819
HOME # 13 Texas A&M +10.96 0.880
AWAY # 37 Kansas State +9.00 0.874
HOME # 49 Oklahoma State +17.17 0.967
HOME # 25 TCU +13.21 0.921
AWAY # 23 Baylor +6.59 0.760
AWAY # 65 Iowa State +13.22 0.922
HOME # 7 West Virginia +8.44 0.817
HOME # 33 Oklahoma +14.81 0.944
AWAY # 21 Texas Tech +6.32 0.751
HOME # 24 Texas +12.93 0.917
AWAY # 49 Oklahoma State +10.85 0.878
Here is Washington's season to date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #109 Belmont 86 82 +2.60 +1.40
HOME #215 Eastern Washington 79 69 +9.31 +0.69
NEUT # 45 Providence 70 77 -8.55 +1.55
NEUT # 29 Virginia Tech 79 103 -11.22 -12.78
HOME #208 Seattle 89 84 +8.88 -3.88
HOME #126 UC Davis 77 70 +3.75 +3.25
HOME #285 Kennesaw State 85 71 +13.70 +0.30
HOME #241 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 86 73 +11.06 +1.94
AWAY # 1 Kansas -25.35 0.000
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, porthawk, murphyslaw, jaythawk1
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- DocBlues
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6 years 4 months ago #14729
by DocBlues
Great stuff, asteriod. Thanks, as always, for your efforts!
The following user(s) said Thank You: jaythawk1
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