predictions for Syracuse game

Somebody is going home with their first loss of the season today.
Both Syracuse and Kansas are still undefeated.  Self's strategy for
earning a high RPI continues to work.  The big contrast here is in
scoring.  Kansas has been playing 156 total points games, while
Syracuse has been playing 134 total points games.  Strong offense
versus strong defense.  Does Kansas have a strong enough perimeter
game to shoot over Syracuse's match-up zone?  I'd say yes.  And if
Syracuse spreads out the defense to try and take away the three-point
shot, that ought to open up Udoka for some Udunkas.  But does Syracuse
really have a strong defense, or are they simply playing slow tempo
games?  Pomeroy's adjusted offense, defense, and tempo ratings suggest
the latter.

Quite a difference of opinion on this game.  Seven Overtimes predicts
that Syracuse will win by 5.  Most others favor Kansas by around 10.
But the pure least squares method (Sagarin Blue) has the margin for
Kansas as high as 20 points, while the three common opponents, courtesy
of the Hoophall Miami Invitational campus games, has Kansas by 26!

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except
free throw attempts per field goal attempt, total rebounds, and offensive
rebound percentage.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in all except opponent points per game, offensive rebounds per
game, and blocks per game.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Franklin Howard           guard
Leading scorer        Tyus Battle               guard
Leading rebounder     Oshae Brissett            forward
Most assists          Franklin Howard           guard
Most steals           Franklin Howard           guard
Most blocks           Paschal Chukwu            center
Most turnovers        Franklin Howard           guard
Most fouls            Bourama Sidibe            forward

Hmm, looks like the Orange has some Battle in them.  Sort of like how
the Kansas football defense had some Defense in them.

Common Opponents
================

KU  +43 TxS at home (+39 neutral court)
Syr +13 TxS at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +30 Syr neutral (+30 neutral court)

KU  +43 Oak at home (+39 neutral court)
Syr +24 Oak at home (+20 neutral court)
KU  +19 Syr neutral (+19 neutral court)

KU  +38 Tol at home (+34 neutral court)
Syr  +8 Tol at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU  +30 Syr neutral (+30 neutral court)

The average is 26.3 points in favor of Kansas.

                                                           6-0             6-0     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Syracuse
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +11.12   78   67                #  1   #182     # 39   #224 
Sagarin Predictor      +12.52   79   66       95.8     #  1   #182     # 40   #224 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +9.81   77   68                #  2   #182     # 30   #224 
Sagarin Recent Games    +5.08   75   70                # 11   #182     # 34   #224 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +16.60   71   55                                           
Sagarin Combo          + 9.84   77   68                #  4   #199     # 41   #266
Sagarin Elo            + 8.07   77   68                # 12   #199     # 52   #266
Sagarin Blue           +20.42   83   62                #  1   #199     # 40   #266
Massey                 +11      80   69       85       #  1   # 24     # 34   #146 
Pomeroy                +13.79   79   65                #  1   #203     # 53   #266
Greenfield             +10      75   65                #  1   # 29     # 57   #142
Dunkel                 +15      86.5 71.5                                         
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +10.5    76   66                                           
Real Time RPI          +11      81   70                #  2   # 16     # 53   # 92
Real Time GAMER        +13      82   69       77.3     #  2   # 16     # 53   # 92
CBN RPI                                                #  5   # 58     # 23   #180
Dolphin Predictive     +10.96   73   62       82.3     #  2            # 33       
Colley Matrix          + 2.62                          #  3   # 50     #  8   #153
Whitlock                not on board                                              
ESPN BPI               +12.9                  88.1     #  1   #252     # 60   #270
LRMC                    not on board                                               
Seven Overtimes         -5      70  75        47       #  4   #147     #  8   #144 
common opponents       +26.33   86  59
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +11.3

Here is Kansas' season, still favored in every game, projected season record is
still 28-3:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #197 Tennessee State             92  56   +30.31    +5.69
NEUT   # 16 Kentucky                    65  61    +8.19    -4.19
HOME   # 94 South Dakota State          98  64   +23.14   +10.86
HOME   #209 Texas Southern             114  71   +31.28   +11.72
HOME   #142 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +26.67   +16.33
HOME   #137 Toledo                      96  58   +26.13   +11.87
NEUT   # 40 Syracuse                             +12.53             0.958
HOME   #121 Washington                           +25.26             0.997
HOME   # 38 Arizona State                        +15.25             0.950
AWAY   # 97 Nebraska                             +17.41             0.970
HOME   #241 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +33.29             1.000
AWAY   #103 Stanford                             +17.71             0.972
AWAY   # 24 Texas                                 +7.11             0.778
HOME   # 21 Texas Tech                           +12.48             0.911
AWAY   # 27 TCU                                   +8.02             0.806
HOME   # 62 Iowa State                           +19.30             0.981
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                         +16.37             0.961
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         +2.53             0.607
HOME   # 22 Baylor                               +12.65             0.913
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma                              +8.13             0.809
HOME   # 15 Texas A&M                            +10.62             0.874
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                         +10.37             0.868
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                       +16.22             0.960
HOME   # 27 TCU                                  +14.02             0.934
AWAY   # 22 Baylor                                +6.65             0.763
AWAY   # 62 Iowa State                           +13.30             0.924
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +8.53             0.821
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma                             +14.13             0.936
AWAY   # 21 Texas Tech                            +6.48             0.757
HOME   # 24 Texas                                +13.11             0.921
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                       +10.22             0.864

Here is Syracuse's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #261 Cornell                     77  45   +21.93   +10.07
HOME   #115 Iona College                71  62   +12.33    -3.33
HOME   #209 Texas Southern              80  67   +18.75    -5.75
HOME   #142 Oakland-Mich.               74  50   +14.14    +9.86
HOME   #137 Toledo                      72  64   +13.60    -5.60
HOME   # 28 Maryland                    72  70    +1.54    +0.46
NEUT   #  1 Kansas                               -12.53             0.042