KU an early final four and champion contender based on Ken Pom pre tourney stats

There is still a long way to go until the tournament, but I thought it would be fun to look at who the way early NCAA Title favorites are right now based on Ken Pom pre tournament data. I'm sure most of you on here are at least familiar with Ken Pom's site, but if not here it is

To be considered a Final Four contender a team has to have the following: Top 25 Ken Pom Ranking, Top 80 AdjO, top 60 AdjD before the tournament starts

To be considered a National Champion contender a team has to have the following: Top 25 Ken Pom Ranking, top 20 AdjO, and top 40 AdjD before the tournament starts.

The teams who are NCAA champion favorites right now because they rank in the Ken Pom top 25, have an AdjO in the top 20 and an AdjD in the top 40 are:

Kansas
Villanova
Wichita State
Texas A&M
Michigan St.
Duke
Kentucky
Florida
Notre Dame
Purdue
UNC
Gonzaga
Minnesota

Final 4 teams from 2006 to 2015

37 of the 40 final 4 teams from 2006 to 2015 ranked in the top 25 of Ken Pom's pre tournament rankings
39 of the 40 final 4 teams from 2006 to 2015 ranked in the top 80 of Ken Pom's AdjO pre tournament rankings.
37 of the 40 final 4 teams from 2006 to 2015 ranked in the top 60 of Ken Pom's AdjD pre tournament rankings.

Champions from 2002 to 2015

14 of the 14 champions from 2002 to 2015 ranked in the top 25 of Ken Pom's pre tournament rankings.
13 of the 14 champions from 2002 to 2015 ranked in the top 20 of Ken Pom's AdjO pre tournament rankings.
12 of the 14 champions from 2002 to 2015 ranked in the top 40 of Ken Pom's AdjD pre tournament rankings.

This is cool, but still very early.

It made me wonder, however, how we'd all do using the WAGNER method by comparsions (WAGNER: Wild A--ed Guess Not Easily Refuted). Ken Pom picks 13 teams that are contenders for the title based on his statistical analysis.

If I were to pick 13 teams simply based on reputation, what little I know about them at this point in the season, and a little personal bias/preference, I think I'd stand a decent chance of getting most of the FF out of 13 teams, and I'm fairly confident that the NC would come out of that list. In fact, right now, I'd guess that at least 3 of the FF are among the top 13 teams in the AP and/or Coaches polls.

Not taking a shot at Ken Pom because his (and others) computer analyses tend to be very valuable later in the year, but at this point it still feels like throwing darts.

Just to be honest I am not sold yet on this years squad. We beat an offensively challenged Ky team. We have beat a bunch of teams we should beat. We have shown that we can keep our focus even when we are expected to win. We have not been tested yet by the better teams. Hopefully we can show that it was not just the competition that made us look good up to this point. I am not saying we will not be good just that the jury is still out on how good this squad will be.

Agreed. And we are entering the part of the preseason that will tell us a lot. On the other hand, I can't remember a Jayhawk team with so many offensive weapons. Usually there was a starter or two you didn't want to shoot. You wanted them to just screen, pass the ball, rebound, and play defense. But I don't cringe when anyone on this team takes a shot.

Agreed. Although I will say that Oakland and Toledo are going to be good in their leagues this year. Oakland lost to Syracuse 74-50 and also lost to 87-74. Toledo lost at Syracuse 72-64 and beat St. Joe's 98-87.

If Syracuse was only able to beat these guys by an average of about 18, and we were beating them by 40, you'd think the rough math would put us at about a 12 point favorite tomorrow.

Agree that UK wasn't a great team, but we've at least met the expectations with the others. I'd be a lot more worried if we had been in close contests with some of the others.

Time will tell. Not sold yet, but I'm cautiously optimistic about our potential.

Agreed HE.

KU has been missing that defensive killer instinct for several seasons. My two concerns for this team are this: Can we get offensive rebounds against bigger, taller teams if our shots aren't falling? Will Doke stay out of foul trouble and will we have a reliable big man as a backup?

I like Lightfoot...I really do. However, it's clear he's no Doke and I worry about us going against much taller teams and how we'd do on the offensive glass if our shots aren't falling. This is a scary shooting team; the best in KU history in terms of effective field goal %, but we can't forget about the offensive glass. It is so important come tournament time year in and year out.

This is why I love this board. Great insights from tuned in fans. Great points on our defense, rebounding, etc.

I think Self must realize by now that Lightfoot isn't a true "big". The kid does, however, play with a ton of heart. If we're stuck playing a mostly small lineup this year, having Lightfoot as a "big small" can work. We'll inevitably face mismatches when we play teams with 2 bigs playing at the same time, but in that scenario, one of the opponents' bigs will be forced to defend the perimeter. No easy task.