predictions for Toledo game

Toledo actually plays in higher scoring games than we do.  Trouble is,
their scoring margin is just 3 points.  Ours is 29 points.  Rockets
have a decent offense.  Their defense seems to be lacking.  We should
be able to score inside and out.

Yet another campus game in the Hoophall Miami Invitational.  Meanwhile,
Saturday's opponent, Syracuse, is busy with the ACC/Big Ten Challenge,
having already played their three campus games in the Hoophall.

The trend analysis for Kansas is interesting.  We've gone from 3 points
below expectation against Kentucky to 11 points above expectation against
South Dakota State to 12 points above expectation against Texas Southern
to 17 points above expectation against Oakland.  That's an improvement
of 3.66 points per game (after also taking Tennessee State into account),
which would mean winning today by 42 points.  However, the trend analysis
for Toledo suggests a loss by only 28 points.  Take the average, which
is 35 points, which, coincidentally, is about what the Oakland common
opponent suggests.

Hey, we're Dunkel's highlighted game again.  Must not be any more
compelling matchups today.

Collegiate Basketball News is now computing their RPI (considered one of
the most reliable of the RPI clones).  Texas A&M is #1, Temple is #2,
Duke is #3, Vermont is #4, Missouri is #5, and Kansas is #6.  Ugh, we're
behind a two-loss Missouri squad.

At the opposite end of reliable is the Real Time RPI.  I still don't
understand why there is a difference between the two predictions.  They
are both called GAMER predictions.  At least Sagarin tells you why there
are differences in his various ratings.  And I wish whoever programmed
the Real Time web site spent a little more time fixing bugs.  For example,
when you click on the Next link to bring up the next 50 teams, it keeps
repeating teams 51-100.  And if you try to go back to the top of the
list, you'll find that what looks like a link to page 1 isn't a link at
all.  No way to get back to the top without reloading from scratch.

And in the curious department is Seven Overtimes.  Only a 12 point margin?
Dunkel, the next most pessimistic, has it at 19.5 points.  The average is
25 points, with a scatter of 5 points, so Seven Overtimes is more than
two standard deviations out.

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except
free throw attempts per field goal attempt and turnover percentage.
Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all of them.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Nate Navigato             forward
Leading scorer        Tre'Shaun Fletcher        guard
Leading rebounder     Tre'Shaun Fletcher        guard
Most assists          Tre'Shaun Fletcher        guard
Most steals           Tre'Shaun Fletcher        guard
Most blocks           Luke Knapke               forward
Most turnovers        Luke Knapke               forward
Most fouls            Tre'Shaun Fletcher        guard

Tre'Shaun Fletcher appears to be the key player for the Rockets.  Control him and
you control the game.

Common Opponents
================

KU  +43 Oak at home (+39 neutral court)
Tol +13 Oak at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +34 Tol at home (+30 neutral court)

                                                           5-0             3-2     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Toledo
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +23.96   91   67                #  1   #178     #128   #130 
Sagarin Predictor      +24.67   91   67       99.9     #  1   #178     #126   #130 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +23.77   91   67                #  2   #178     #132   #130 
Sagarin Recent Games   +21.20   90   68                # 11   #178     #168   #130 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +32.81   98   65                                           
Sagarin Combo          +26.07   92   66                #  4   #217     #129   #160
Sagarin Elo            +26.50   92   66                #  8   #217     #152   #160
Sagarin Blue           +32.40   95   63                #  1   #217     #112   #160
Massey                 +25      91   66       97       #  1   # 23     #147   # 90 
Pomeroy                +21.83   86   64                #  1   #201     #154   # 99
Greenfield             +25      92.5 67.5              #  1   # 27     #141   #156
Dunkel                 +19.5    89   70                                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +24.5    89   65                                           
Real Time RPI          +31      89   58                #  2   # 13     #155   # 99
Real Time GAMER        +32      89   57       96.5     #  2   # 11     # 98   #224
CBN RPI                                                #  6   # 60     # 73   # 34
Dolphin Predictive     +24.05   92   68       96.8     #  1            #135       
Colley Matrix          +20.24                          #  3   # 68     #144   # 95
Whitlock                not on board                                              
ESPN BPI               +21.7                  96.2     #  1   #210     #144   #209
LRMC                    not on board                                               
Seven Overtimes        +12      85  73        85       #  4   #116     #135   # 21 
Crotistics              expired domain mapping?                                
common opponents       +34
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +25.1

Here is Kansas' season, still favored in every game, projected season record is
now up to 28-3 (27.54 wins, enough to get rounded up).

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #196 Tennessee State             92  56   +29.72    +6.28
NEUT   # 16 Kentucky                    65  61    +7.47    -3.47
HOME   # 98 South Dakota State          98  64   +23.08   +10.92
HOME   #208 Texas Southern             114  71   +30.64   +12.36
HOME   #149 Oakland-Mich.              102  59   +26.31   +16.69
HOME   #126 Toledo                               +24.67             0.999
NEUT   # 43 Syracuse                             +11.86             0.894
HOME   #121 Washington                           +24.56             0.995
HOME   # 38 Arizona State                        +14.43             0.936
AWAY   #100 Nebraska                             +17.12             0.964
HOME   #242 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +32.72             1.000
AWAY   #107 Stanford                             +17.59             0.968
AWAY   # 22 Texas                                 +5.59             0.722
HOME   # 21 Texas Tech                           +11.34             0.884
AWAY   # 31 TCU                                   +7.48             0.785
HOME   # 60 Iowa State                           +19.02             0.978
HOME   # 37 Kansas State                         +14.42             0.936
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         +1.82             0.576
HOME   # 20 Baylor                               +11.33             0.884
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma                              +6.22             0.744
HOME   # 13 Texas A&M                             +9.20             0.834
AWAY   # 37 Kansas State                          +8.42             0.813
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma State                       +15.11             0.944
HOME   # 31 TCU                                  +13.48             0.922
AWAY   # 20 Baylor                                +5.33             0.713
AWAY   # 60 Iowa State                           +13.02             0.915
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         +7.82             0.795
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma                             +12.22             0.901
AWAY   # 21 Texas Tech                            +5.34             0.713
HOME   # 22 Texas                                +11.59             0.889
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma State                        +9.11             0.832

Here is Toledo's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #110 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          98  87    +2.18    +8.82
Div3        Ohio Northern               72  62
HOME   #149 Oakland-Mich.               87  74    +4.64    +8.36
AWAY   # 43 Syracuse                    64  72   -12.81    +4.81
AWAY   #261 Cornell                     77  80    +6.03    -9.03
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -24.67             0.001