predictions for Oakland game

Oakland has a ranking somewhat comparable to South Dakota State.  Not
surprisingly, the predicted margins are comparable to the actual margin
for the South Dakota State game.

What do folks think of these holiday "tournaments" for which the opponents
are known in advance?  And the majority of the games are played in campus
arenas rather than at a neutral site?  Very much unlike the Maui or the
PK80 or the Battle4Atlantis.  Or were you even aware that this is our
second game in the Hoophall Miami Invitational?

Sagarin has added his Elo and Blue rankings, both of which are based
entirely on results from this season.  Because of that lack of bias,
these rankings are likely to be a little more unstable until the teams
are well-connected, which they won't be for another couple of weeks.
I should also add that only for the offense-defense method does Sagarin
actually provide his own predicted score.  For the rest, I'm using the
average of the total scores played by the two teams as a guide for the
predicted scores, which explains the discrepancy in this case.  Recall
that his offense-defense method came in with a substantially smaller
predicted margin of victory in the Texas Southern game, whereas it's
substantially larger for today's game.  Most of the predicted margins
appear to be in the low 20s, but Sagarin offense-defense and Blue are
both up near 30.

Deja vu.  Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in
all except free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  Among the seven
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all of them.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Kendrick Nunn             guard
Leading scorer        Kendrick Nunn             guard
Leading rebounder     James Beck                guard
Most assists          Brailen Neely             guard
Most steals           Kendrick Nunn             guard
Most blocks           Isaiah Brock              forward
Most turnovers        Kendrick Nunn             guard
Most fouls            Isaiah Brock              forward

Kendrick Nunn appears to be the key player for the Golden Grizzlies.  However,
guard Martez Walker is on the court almost as many minutes as Nunn.  That's their
backcourt duo.

                                                           4-0             2-2     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Oakland
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +23.07   88   65                #  1   #183     #121   #125 
Sagarin Predictor      +23.69   88   64       99.7     #  1   #183     #122   #125 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +22.26   87   65                #  1   #183     #112   #125 
Sagarin Recent Games   +20.29   86   66                #  9   #183     #148   #125 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +30.65   97   66                                           
Sagarin Combo          +25.88   89   63                #  3   #211     #114   # 92
Sagarin Elo            +25.86   89   63                # 10   #211     #133   # 92
Sagarin Blue           +29.96   91   61                #  1   #211     #111   # 92
Massey                 +20      88   68       96       #  1   # 25     #117   # 63 
Pomeroy                +19.07   85   66                #  1   #211     #113   #153
Greenfield             +21      91   70                #  1   # 24     #113   # 76
Dunkel                 +17.5    88   71                                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +20.5    90.5 70.0                                         
Real Time RPI          +23      86   63                #  2   # 11     # 98   #224
Real Time GAMER        +23      88   65       91.1     #  2   # 11     # 98   #224
CBN RPI                 not on board                                              
Dolphin Predictive     +22.11   89   67       95.7     #  1            #134       
Colley Matrix          +19.93                          #  5   # 78     #139   # 84
Whitlock                not on board                                              
ESPN BPI               +19.4                  93.5     #  1   #210     # 96   #122
LRMC                    not on board                                               
Seven Overtimes        +14      83  69        93       #  9   #133     #149   #204 
Crotistics              expired domain mapping?                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +22.2

Here is Kansas' season, still favored in every game, projected season record is
still 27-4.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #199 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.83    +7.17
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                    65  61    +7.26    -3.26
HOME   #102 South Dakota State          98  64   +22.10   +11.90
HOME   #226 Texas Southern             114  71   +30.63   +12.37
HOME   #122 Oakland-Mich.                        +23.68             0.997
HOME   #107 Toledo                               +22.38             0.992
NEUT   # 41 Syracuse                             +10.83             0.877
HOME   #116 Washington                           +23.15             0.994
HOME   # 45 Arizona State                        +14.85             0.944
AWAY   #110 Nebraska                             +16.72             0.964
HOME   #237 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +31.12             1.000
AWAY   # 92 Stanford                             +15.02             0.946
AWAY   # 20 Texas                                 +4.15             0.672
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                           +10.12             0.861
AWAY   # 27 TCU                                   +5.82             0.734
HOME   # 70 Iowa State                           +18.91             0.979
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                         +13.17             0.921
AWAY   # 14 West Virginia                         +2.55             0.608
HOME   # 21 Baylor                               +10.18             0.863
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                              +5.85             0.735
HOME   # 15 Texas A&M                             +8.76             0.826
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                          +7.17             0.779
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma State                       +14.26             0.937
HOME   # 27 TCU                                  +11.82             0.898
AWAY   # 21 Baylor                                +4.18             0.673
AWAY   # 70 Iowa State                           +12.91             0.917
HOME   # 14 West Virginia                         +8.55             0.821
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                             +11.85             0.898
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                            +4.12             0.671
HOME   # 20 Texas                                +10.15             0.862
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma State                        +8.26             0.812

Here is Oakland's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #163 Fort Wayne(IPFW)            85  71    +5.79    +8.21
HOME   #272 New Orleans                 87  68   +12.53    +6.47
AWAY   #107 Toledo                      74  87    -4.30    -8.70
AWAY   # 41 Syracuse                    50  74   -12.85   -11.15
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -23.68             0.003