predictions for Texas Southern game

More Tigers?  Fortunately, a rather tame version.  The only team weaker than
Texas Southern that the Jayhawks will face during the regular season is Omaha,
based on the latest Sagarin ratings.  They are playing their entire non-conference
slate on the road, probably raising a significant portion of their budget in the
process.  Losing to Washington State in overtime might seem like their best
performance of the season so far, but they played 6 points above expectation
against future Kansas opponent Syracuse, which is arguably a better performance,
despite losing by 13.  Probably a good opponent for the Jayhawks while they sort
out the Billy Preston mess.

Sagarin now has enough data to resume his Offense-Defense Method, but curiously,
the predicted margin using that approach is significantly smaller than any of
his other predictions.  Indeed, it seems that when the margin gets to be too
big, Greenfield doesn't even attempt a prediction, which is the case with today's
game, at least as of 6 hours before tip-off.  Ditto for Dunkel.  Fortunately,
Dolphin is now on board, picking up some of the slack; he's on board much earlier
this season than usual.  Meanwhile, Firefox is claiming that the crotistics.com
domain name has expired and needs to be renewed.

Texas Southern has been extremely consistent, playing all four of their games
within 7 points of expectation.  That makes it nearly impossible to overcome a
29 point margin, and the probability of Kansas winning exceeds 99.95 percent,
which rounded up to 100 in the table below.  If I had instead used the national
average of 11 points for inconsistency, the probability of winning would have
been less than 99.95 percent and I could have shown a more realistic number.

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all except free
throw attempts per field goal attempt.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas
has the advantage in all of them.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Demontrae Jefferson       guard
Leading scorer        Demontrae Jefferson       guard
Leading rebounder     Trayvon Reed              forward
Most assists          Jefferson/Donte Clark     guard/forward
Most steals           Kevin Scott               forward
Most blocks           Trayvon Reed              forward
Most turnovers        Demontrae Jefferson       guard
Most fouls            Jefferson/Clark/Bruce     guard/guard/guard

Thanks to the overtime game, Jefferson is averaging 42.5 minutes per game.  Expect
him to be on the floor at all times.  Clark is averaging 40.0 minutes per game.
Likely he'll be on the floor most of the game as well.  Even Scott is averaging
more minutes per game (35.0) than any Jayhawk.

Continuing with the bizarreness of Seven Overtimes, it would appear that they have
today's game with Texas Southern as the home team.  But even so, if the home court
advantage is worth 3 points, as Sagarin currently has it, then a swap of venue
would increase the spread by a mere 6 points, changing the margin from 11 to 17,
which is still way out of line with the other prognosticators.

                                                           3-0             0-4     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Texas Southern
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +29.02   90   61                #  1   #138     #222   # 12 
Sagarin Predictor      +29.04   90   61      100.0     #  1   #138     #215   # 12 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +29.79   91   61                #  2   #138     #232   # 12 
Sagarin Recent Games   +27.41   89   62                #  4   #138     #236   # 12 
Sagarin Off-Def Meth   +18.75   90   71                                           
Massey                 +33      94   61       99       #  1   # 14     #260   #  2 
Pomeroy                +27.13   89   62                #  3   #130     #259   # 24 
Greenfield                                             #  5   # 20     #231   #  7 
Dunkel                                                                             
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                                 
Real Time RPI          +29      88   59                #  2   # 12     #146   #169 
Real Time GAMER        +29      90   61       96.1     #  2   # 12     #146   #169 
CBN RPI                 not on board                                               
Dolphin Predictive     +22.33   88   66       95.9     #  3            #180        
Colley Matrix          +30.16                          #  2   # 90     #282   #  7 
Whitlock                not on board                                               
ESPN BPI               +22.3                  96.1     #  2   #156     #187   # 13 
LRMC                    not on board                                               
Seven Overtimes        +11      81  70        94       # 26   # 89     #190   #  2 
Crotistics              expired domain mapping?                                
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +26.0

Here is Kansas' season, still favored in every game, projected season record is now
up to 27-4.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #210 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.67    +7.33
NEUT   # 19 Kentucky                    65  61    +6.47    -2.47
HOME   #139 South Dakota State          98  64   +23.62   +10.38
HOME   #215 Texas Southern                       +29.03             1.000
HOME   #128 Oakland-Mich.                        +22.87             0.994
HOME   #111 Toledo                               +21.86             0.992
NEUT   # 39 Syracuse                              +9.62             0.854
HOME   #119 Washington                           +22.47             0.993
HOME   # 46 Arizona State                        +14.37             0.943
AWAY   #110 Nebraska                             +15.58             0.956
HOME   #238 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +30.41             1.000
AWAY   # 91 Stanford                             +14.04             0.938
AWAY   # 21 Texas                                 +3.97             0.668
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                            +9.04             0.839
AWAY   # 30 TCU                                   +4.93             0.706
HOME   # 72 Iowa State                           +18.24             0.977
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                         +12.09             0.908
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia                         -0.19             0.492
HOME   # 20 Baylor                                +9.64             0.855
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma                              +4.26             0.680
HOME   # 14 Texas A&M                             +7.93             0.808
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                          +6.09             0.748
HOME   # 41 Oklahoma State                       +12.88             0.921
HOME   # 30 TCU                                  +10.93             0.885
AWAY   # 20 Baylor                                +3.64             0.655
AWAY   # 72 Iowa State                           +12.24             0.910
HOME   #  6 West Virginia                         +5.81             0.738
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma                             +10.26             0.870
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                            +3.04             0.631
HOME   # 21 Texas                                 +9.97             0.863
AWAY   # 41 Oklahoma State                        +6.88             0.775

Here is Texas Southern's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 17 Gonzaga                     69  97   -23.11    -4.89
AWAY   #154 Washington State            84  86    -6.77    +4.77
AWAY   # 50 Ohio State                  64  82   -16.93    -1.07
AWAY   # 39 Syracuse                    67  80   -19.41    +6.41
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -29.03             0.000