predictions for South Dakota State game

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of today's game might be pondering the
question as to whether the South Dakota State Jackrabbits logo looks a bit
like Bugs Bunny.

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three
categories:  assists per game, total rebounds per game, and offensive
rebound percentage.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in all but defensive rebounds per game; opponents points allowed
is a wash.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Reed Tellinghuisen        guard
Leading scorer        Mike Daum                 forward
Leading rebounder     Mike Daum                 forward
Most assists          Brandon Key               guard
Most steals           Mike Daum/Lane Severyn    forward/guard
Most blocks           Mike Daum                 forward
Most turnovers        Brandon Key               guard
Most fouls            Lane Severyn              guard

The Jackrabbits look a bit one-dimensional.  Control Mike Daum, and you control
the game.

Colley came on board as of this game, but his rankings are rather bizarre at the
moment.  Apparently no bias from the previous season was used, so with relatively
few games to go on, the result is predictably bizarre.  But even more bizarre is
Seven Overtimes, which has South Dakota State ranked higher than Kansas!  Yet for
some reason, they're picking Kansas to win the game, and by more than can be
accounted for by the home court advantage.  Go figure.

                                                           2-0             3-0     
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       S. Dakota St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +20.57   79   58                #  2   #101     #100   #305 
Sagarin Predictor      +20.46   79   59       96.9     #  2   #101     #100   #305 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +21.72   80   58                #  2   #101     #118   #305 
Sagarin Recent Games   +17.54   78   60                #  4   #101     # 87   #305 
Massey                 +23      88   65       97       #  1   # 21     #136   #301 
Pomeroy                +18.16   84   66                #  4   #108     #107   #323
Greenfield             +21.0    86   65                #  8   # 29     #115   #275
Dunkel                 +22      83.5 61.5                                         
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +17.5    82.5 65                                           
Real Time RPI          +31      88   57                #  2   # 18     #159   #179 
Real Time GAMER        +31      90   59       96.8     #  2   # 33     #  4   # 25 
CBN RPI                 not on board                                               
Dolphin Predictive      not on board                                               
Colley Matrix           +7.47                          # 10   #163     # 38   #261
Whitlock                not on board                                              
ESPN BPI               +17.5                  93.7     #  2   #107     #137   #330
LRMC                    not on board                                               
Seven Overtimes         +6      72  66        57       # 32   #104     # 25   #279 
Crotistics              not on board                                               
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +19.6

Here is Kansas' season, still favored in every game, projected season record is 26-5.
Look at that schedule; after the Omaha game, every opponent is in the Top 80.  Lucky
to have an extra body by then.  Maybe two.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #207 Tennessee State             92  56   +27.84    +8.16
NEUT   # 13 Kentucky                    65  61    +4.63    -0.63
HOME   #100 South Dakota State                   +20.46             0.969
HOME   #233 Texas Southern                       +29.44             0.996
HOME   # 97 Oakland-Mich.                        +20.22             0.967
HOME   #131 Toledo                               +22.54             0.980
NEUT   # 37 Syracuse                              +9.25             0.800
HOME   #102 Washington                           +20.57             0.969
HOME   # 57 Arizona State                        +15.68             0.923
AWAY   #121 Nebraska                             +16.07             0.928
HOME   #247 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +30.14             0.997
AWAY   # 80 Stanford                             +12.88             0.879
AWAY   # 22 Texas                                 +3.60             0.628
HOME   # 34 Texas Tech                           +11.40             0.850
AWAY   # 35 TCU                                   +5.51             0.692
HOME   # 75 Iowa State                           +18.39             0.953
HOME   # 36 Kansas State                         +11.99             0.862
AWAY   # 19 West Virginia                         +2.47             0.589
HOME   # 15 Baylor                                +7.96             0.765
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma                              +3.77             0.634
HOME   # 20 Texas A&M                             +8.80             0.788
AWAY   # 36 Kansas State                          +5.99             0.707
HOME   # 30 Oklahoma State                       +10.92             0.840
HOME   # 35 TCU                                  +11.51             0.852
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                                +1.96             0.571
AWAY   # 75 Iowa State                           +12.39             0.870
HOME   # 19 West Virginia                         +8.47             0.779
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma                              +9.77             0.813
AWAY   # 34 Texas Tech                            +5.40             0.688
HOME   # 22 Texas                                 +9.60             0.809
AWAY   # 30 Oklahoma State                        +4.92             0.673

Here is South Dakota State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #127 UC Irvine                   65  54    +4.89    +6.11
Div2        Mary ND                     78  54
HOME   #343 Alabama State               94  63   +23.53    +7.47
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -20.46             0.031