predictions for Kentucky game

Is Kentucky sandbagging us?  Trying to lull the Jayhawks into a false sense
of security?  The Wildcats were underwhelming in their first two contests.
They trailed #177 Utah Valley at the half, though came back to win by 10,
and they got outscored by #80 Vermont in the second half to win by only 4.
Yet for some bizarre reason, Massey elevated Kentucky to #1, replacing
Kansas in that spot, despite the Jayhawks beating Tennessee State by almost
8 points more than expected.  Go figure.  But Massey is the only one picking
Kentucky to win the game.  Pomeroy has it about even, while most have Kansas
as about a 5 point favorite.

As usual, Calipari landed a highly rated recruiting class, and he'll send
a lot of them to the NBA, starting over again next season.  Lather, rinse,
and repeat.  Kentucky might have more raw talent, but Kansas has the edge
in experience.  Devonte' and Svi are both multi-year veterans, and while
Malik may have played just one game for Kansas, he has a year of Division I
experience and a second year under Self on the scout team while sitting out
his transfer year, plus seven exhibition games.  But Garrett got the start
against Tennessee State; hopefully Newman's response will be "Message
Received".  Vick also has more experience than the Kentucky starters, who
will likely all be freshmen.  Even Azubuike, with his limited playing time
last season, has more experience than the likely Wildcat starters.

Kansas has won the last two matchups with Kentucky, but both of those were
in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.  The last time they met in the Champions Classic,
three years ago, Kansas could muster a mere 40 points and lost embarrassingly
to Kentucky by 32.  Wouldn't it be nice to turn the tables on the Wildcats
this year?

Among the eight offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all but free
throws attempted per field goal attempts and turnover percentage.  Among
the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all but offensive
rebounds per game.

With West Virginia having lost big to Texas A&M, the Mountaineers dropped
enough in the latest Sagarin ratings to turn the road game with West Virginia
into a projected win for Kansas.  The Jayhawks are now favored in every game
this season.  But the cumulative win probability is not 31; rather, it is
25.6, which we can round up to a 26-5 season record projection.

Players to Watch
================
Most minutes          Kevin Knox                forward
Leading scorer        Hamidou Diallo            guard
Leading rebounder     Wenyen Gabriel            forward
Most assists          Shai Gilgeous-Alexander   guard
Most steals           Shai Gilgeous-Alexander   guard
Most turnovers        Shai Gilgeous-Alexander   guard
Most fouls            Diallo/Gabriel            guard/guard

Forward Tai Wynyard has a back injury and a broken nose; it's unclear of his
status to play.  Guard Jemarl Baker had his knee scoped and is expected to
miss three months.  Forward Jarred Vanderbilt has an injured foot with no
recovery schedule.  So the Kentucky roster is also a little on the thin side.

                                                           1-0            2-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Kentucky
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +4.28   74   70                #  2   #219    # 11   #171
Sagarin Predictor       +4.98   74   69       67.5     #  2   #219    # 15   #171
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.85   73   71                #  2   #219    #  5   #171
Sagarin Recent Games    +1.36   72   71                #  5   #219    #  8   #171
Massey                  -1      78   79       49       #  4   #169    #  1   #108
Pomeroy                 +0.15   76   76                #  4   #233    #  5   #159
Greenfield              +4.5    78   73                #  7   #218    # 20   #110
Dunkel                 +14      81   67                                          
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.5    80   76
Real Time RPI           +9      87   78                #  2   # 33    #  4   # 25
Real Time GAMER        +11      88   77       73.4     #  2   # 33    #  4   # 25
CBN RPI                 not on board                  
Dolphin Predictive      not on board                  
Colley Matrix           not on board                  
Whitlock                not on board                  
ESPN BPI                +5.7                  69.5     #  2   #264    # 23   #181
LRMC                    not on board                  
Seven Overtimes         no prediction                  # 38   #251    #112   #214
Crotistics              not on board                  
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
average                 +5.0

Here is Kansas' season, now favored in every game, projected season record is 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #206 Tennessee State             92  56   +28.06    +7.94
NEUT   # 15 Kentucky                              +4.98             0.675
HOME   #105 South Dakota State                   +21.50             0.975
HOME   #238 Texas Southern                       +29.71             0.997
HOME   # 92 Oakland-Mich.                        +20.37             0.968
HOME   #124 Toledo                               +22.79             0.981
NEUT   # 35 Syracuse                              +9.14             0.797
HOME   #100 Washington                           +21.19             0.973
HOME   # 74 Arizona State                        +17.71             0.946
AWAY   # 96 Nebraska                             +14.66             0.909
HOME   #215 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +28.51             0.995
AWAY   # 66 Stanford                             +10.99             0.841
AWAY   # 21 Texas                                 +3.02             0.608
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                           +12.51             0.872
AWAY   # 27 TCU                                   +4.73             0.666
HOME   # 70 Iowa State                           +17.53             0.944
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                         +11.61             0.854
AWAY   # 19 West Virginia                         +2.98             0.607
HOME   # 16 Baylor                                +8.28             0.774
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma                              +5.78             0.700
HOME   # 20 Texas A&M                             +9.01             0.794
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                          +5.61             0.695
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State                       +13.11             0.883
HOME   # 27 TCU                                  +10.73             0.835
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                                +2.28             0.582
AWAY   # 70 Iowa State                           +11.53             0.853
HOME   # 19 West Virginia                         +8.98             0.793
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma                             +11.78             0.858
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                            +6.51             0.723
HOME   # 21 Texas                                 +9.02             0.794
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +7.11             0.741

Here is Kentucky's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #177 Utah Valley                 73  63   +21.53   -11.53
HOME   # 80 Vermont                     73  69   +13.76    -9.76
NEUT   #  2 Kansas                                -4.98             0.325