predictions for Tennessee State game

Deja vu.  Are we playing Tigers again?  Missouri Tigers.  Fort Hays State
Tigers.  Now Tennessee State Tigers.

As you can imagine, there is very little to go on for purposes of making
predictions for the first game of the season.  Many don't even bother to
try.  Others simply use the ratings from last season, which may or may
not provide a reasonable basis for a prediction, depending on how many
team members are back from last season.  A few might try to tweak their
ratings based on changes to the roster and the perceived value of those
changes.  Others might try to use the exhibition games as an indication.
Take it all with several grains of salt.

Fortunately, this first game is against a middle-tier opponent such that
even with the large uncertainties in the actual ratings for this season,
the probability of victory is rather high.

What I find interesting, or perhaps more amusing, is that Pomeroy's
numbers for Kansas changed ever so slightly between yesterday and today.
Why?  I have no idea.  And Tennessee State dropped from #212 to #213.
I assume it's because Baylor, Central Arkansas, Cincinnati, Lamar, Middle
Tennessee, and Savannah State have already played games that count, and
somehow those results have percolated through his system, affecting other
teams, even though they are not yet connected.

I assume Greenfield is using numbers from last season, but among the eight
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all but free throws attempted
per field goals attempts.  Among the seven defensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in all but opponents points per game allowed.

ESPN's BPI includes a "matchup quality" index, and the two best games of
the day involve Big 12 and SEC teams.  Iowa State travels to Missouri,
while Texas A&M travels to West Virginia.  Sneak preview of the Big 12/SEC
Challenge, coming to arenas near you in January.

                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Tennessee State
Predictor              points     Score     percent    Rating   SOS     Rating   SOS
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   ===============
Sagarin Overall         26.21                 99.1      #  3             #183      
Sagarin Pure Points     26.21                 99.1      #  3             #183
Sagarin Golden Mean     26.21                 99.1      #  3             #183
Sagarin Recent Games    26.21                 99.1      #  3             #183
Massey                  26      86   60       98        #  1             #184
Pomeroy                 23.81   86   62                 #  5             #213
Greenfield              26.5    86   59.5               #  7             #206
Dunkel                  31      93   62                                      
Vegas (via Dunkel)      25.5    86   61
Real Time RPI           28      86   58                 #  2             #176
Real Time GAMER         29      88   59       96.7      #  2             #176
CBN RPI                 not on board                   
Dolphin Predictive      not on board                   
Colley Matrix           not on board                   
Whitlock                not on board                   
ESPN BPI                22.7                  97.0      #  3             #246
LRMC                    not on board                   
Seven Overtimes         not really on board (predicted score is 60-60 for many games)
Crotistics              not on board                   

Here is Kansas' season, projected season record is 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #183 Tennessee State                      +26.20             0.991
NEUT   #  5 Kentucky                              +0.95             0.534
HOME   #120 South Dakota State                   +21.88             0.977
HOME   #238 Texas Southern                       +29.06             0.996
HOME   #110 Oakland-Mich.                        +20.88             0.971
HOME   #147 Toledo                               +23.52             0.984
NEUT   # 44 Syracuse                              +9.83             0.814
HOME   #105 Washington                           +20.47             0.969
HOME   # 73 Arizona State                        +16.68             0.935
AWAY   # 88 Nebraska                             +13.25             0.886
HOME   #200 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)                    +26.92             0.993
AWAY   # 58 Stanford                              +9.12             0.796
AWAY   # 23 Texas                                 +4.02             0.643
HOME   # 39 Texas Tech                           +12.38             0.870
AWAY   # 22 TCU                                   +3.93             0.640
HOME   # 32 Iowa State                           +11.23             0.846
HOME   # 40 Kansas State                         +12.39             0.870
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia                         -1.15             0.458
HOME   # 17 Baylor                                +8.38             0.777
AWAY   # 28 Oklahoma                              +4.67             0.664
HOME   # 29 Texas A&M                            +10.90             0.839
AWAY   # 40 Kansas State                          +6.39             0.719
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma State                       +14.04             0.899
HOME   # 22 TCU                                   +9.93             0.817
AWAY   # 17 Baylor                                +2.38             0.586
AWAY   # 32 Iowa State                            +5.23             0.683
HOME   #  6 West Virginia                         +4.85             0.670
HOME   # 28 Oklahoma                             +10.67             0.834
AWAY   # 39 Texas Tech                            +6.38             0.719
HOME   # 23 Texas                                +10.02             0.819
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma State                        +8.04             0.768