predictions for Purdue game

Now the cupcakes AND the pretenders have been eliminated, and we're down
to the top 16 teams.  The weakest still standing, according to Pomeroy,
is Xavier, whose Sagarin Predictor rating is within 10 points of top-ranked
Gonzaga.  That's less than a single standard deviation, so the odds of an
upset in any single game are near 20 percent.  Next up for Kansas is
another B1G team.  (Meanwhile, Baylor gets to play USC again.  And West
Virginia gets to try its press on Gonzaga.)

Sagarin gives Kansas a 1.75 point margin, with a 58.3 percent probability
of winning the game.  Purdue has been playing games that average 147.6
total points, comparable to Oklahoma, the fifth-highest scoring team in
the Big 12.  By comparison, Kansas has been playing games that average
155.4 total points, the second-highest in the Big 12.  The average of the
two teams is therefore 151.5 points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 77,
Purdue 75.  Kansas has been playing 0.44 points above expectation, while
the Boilermakers have been playing 0.50 points above expectation, which
decreases the margin for Kansas to 1.69 points.  The inconsistency for
Kansas increased yet again after the big win over Michigan State, but
7.2 points is still amazingly low.  On the other hand, the predicted
margins for the remaining game are all sufficiently small that a small
inconsistency doesn't matter all that much.  Kansas has played 15 of the
34 games below expectation by more than 1.75 points, corresponding to a
44.1 percent probability of losing the game.  Meanwhile, Purdue has
played 16 of the 34 games above expectation by more than 1.75 points,
corresponding to a 47.1 percent probability of winning the game.  Those
two probabilities average to a 45.6 percent probability of Kansas losing,
a bit more pessimistic than the 41.7 percent chance derived from the
Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Kansas has a positive trend, while Purdue
has a negative trend, though neither is statistically significant.  Both
teams have negative mental toughness ratings, but that doesn't matter
when two teams have nearly identical power ratings.  Taken at face value,
the margin for Kansas would be 3.3 points, thanks to the trends.  The
various Sagarin rating methods produce margins ranging from 1.65 to 6.83
points.  The "offense-defense" method is the most pessimistic at 1.65
points, with a final score of Kansas 79, Purdue 78, the total for Kansas
missing being rounded up to 80 by a mere 0.01 points.

It should be noted at this point that all these prognostications are
based on the game being played on a neutral court.  In reality, however,
Kansas is playing on a familiar Sprint Center court with a pro-Kansas
crowd in attendance.  If we instead treated it as a home game, Sagarin's
3.03 point home court advantage would kick in, and the probability of
winning jumps to 71.5 percent.

Massey gives Kansas a 3.0 point margin, with a 61 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 81, Purdue 78.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 4.3 units, but
Purdue has the better adjusted defense by 1.8 units.  Those combine to
a 2.5 units advantage for Kansas.  With the average adjusted tempo being
69.7 possessions, the margin would be 1.74 points, virtually identical
to the Sagarin Predictor margin.  The final score would then be Kansas 75,
Purdue 74, with the rounding working in the Boilermakers' favor.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 5.0 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 81, Purdue 76.  Looks to me like Greenfield is taking into account
the fact that the Sprint Center is more like a home game for Kansas.  Among
the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six out of eight
categories; Purdue has a larger average margin of victory by 1.2 points and
dishes 2.1 more assists per game.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has
the advantage in just three of the seven categories, namely grabbing 2.2 more
offensive rebounds per game, blocking 2.1 more shots per game, and stealing
1.9 more balls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a whopping 11.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas
line is at 4.0 points, so he is picking Kansas in both the game and against
the spread.  His total points is 162, suggesting a final score of Kansas 87,
Purdue 75.  Meanwhile, the Vegas total is 156.5, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 80, Purdue 76.

Real Time gives Kansas a 3.0 point margin, with a 55.5 percent probability of
winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 79, Purdue 76.  Curious that
Real Time has a prediction for the Purdue game up, but hasn't yet incorporated
the result of the Michigan State game into his ratings, apparently.

Another oddity is that Collegiate Basketball News is continuing to update the
RPI.  In past seasons, once Selection Sunday had occurred, the RPI was frozen.
Anyway, Kansas dropped to #4 in the RPI behind Arizona, Villanova, and
Kentucky.  I guess Kentucky got the bigger boost by beating a Wichita State
team with a sparkling record.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 1.80 point margin, with a 56.1 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 78, Purdue 76.

Colley gives Kansas a 4.57 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 1.69 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously.  It should be noted that Whitlock hasn't updated his
ratings with the results of the NCAA Tournament games.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 1.7 point margin, with a 56.3 percent
probability of winning.

Kansas remains at #7 in the LRMC, which also hasn't been updated with the
results of the NCAA Tournament games.

Seven Overtimes doesn't have predictions for Thursday's games up yet.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 0.61 point margin.

There are four common opponents, one of which Kansas has played twice and two
of which Indiana has played twice, giving us seven scores to compare:

KU  +20 MSU neutral (+20 neutral court)     KU  +20 MSU neutral (+20 neutral court)
P   +11 MSU on road (+14 neutral court)     P   +17 MSU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU   +6 P   neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU   +6 P   neutral ( +6 neutral court)

KU  +17 NU  at home (+14 neutral court)
P    -3 NU  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +14 P   neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU   -4 IU  neutral ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -4 IU  neutral ( -4 neutral court)
P    +5 IU  on road ( +8 neutral court)     P   +11 IU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU  -12 P   neutral (-12 neutral court)     KU  -12 P   neutral (-12 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   -3 ISU at home ( -6 neutral court)
P    +4 ISU neutral ( +4 neutral court)     P    +4 ISU neutral ( +4 neutral court)
KU   +3 P   neutral ( +3 neutral court)     KU  -10 P   neutral (-10 neutral court)

Although four of the seven comparisons favor Kansas, the average favors Purdue
by 0.71 points.  However, once again the Indiana comparison isn't entirely fair
given that Kansas played the Hoosiers when they had Anunoby, while Purdue had
the advantage of playing them both times without Anunoby.  He scored 3.3 more
points than the sixth man on the Hoosiers' team, so if we adjust the margins of
the two Indiana games by that amount, the average would favor Kansas by 0.2 points.
And again, keep in mind that the Sprint Center represents at least a semi-home game
for Kansas, which ought to be worth a point or two.

Players to watch:  Forward Caleb Swanigan plays the most minutes, scores the most
points, grabs the most rebounds, and blocks the most shots, but also commits the
most turnovers as well as the most personal fouls; guard Dakota Mathias dishes
the most assists; guard Carsen Edwards is their leading thief.  Obviously
Swanigan is the key, but he is less foul prone than Landen Lucas.

So, the various prognostications range from a 0.7 point loss (common opponents) to
an 11.5 point win (Dunkel).  The average is 3.08 points in favor of Kansas,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 77, Purdue 74.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #  7   #  6   #  3   #  3   +0.4    7.2   +0.10 +/- 0.13   -0.18 +/- 0.14
Purdue         # 11   # 42   # 12   # 13   # 14   +0.5    9.4   -0.08 +/- 0.17   -0.14 +/- 0.16
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  4  #  3   #  7   #  9   #  4  #  3    #  8    #  3   # 33   #  4   # 28
Purdue         # 14  # 26   # 12   # 43   # 13  # 22    # 17    # 14   # 53   # 18   # 48
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  6   #  2   #  4   #  1   #  2   1.153   30-4 
Purdue         # 14   # 14   # 11   # 14   # 18   # 14   # 14   0.975   27-7
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  # 23    #  5  #  6    #  8  # 18    #  7  #  3    # 16  # 15    # 11  # 24
Purdue         # 13  # 43    # 11  # 45    # 13  # 45    # 14  # 48    # 17  # 47    # 15  # 50

Here is Kansas' season, including the higher seeded opponent in the
tournament bracket, along with the cumulative probability of reaching
that level and ultimately winning the national championship (6.1 percent):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Indiana                     99 103    +7.42   -11.42
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +1.06    +0.94
HOME   #174 Siena                       86  65   +24.46    -3.46
HOME   #168 UAB                         83  63   +24.05    -4.05
HOME   # 56 Georgia                     65  54   +13.89    -2.89
HOME   #128 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.74   +16.26
HOME   #204 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.94    +3.06
HOME   # 89 Stanford                    89  74   +18.06    -3.06
HOME   #234 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.50   +14.50
HOME   # 97 Nebraska                    89  72   +18.85    -1.85
HOME   # 83 Davidson                    89  71   +17.46    +0.54
AWAY   #222 UNLV                        71  53   +21.79    -3.79
AWAY   # 44 TCU                         86  80    +5.67    +0.33
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                90  88   +10.94    -8.94
HOME   # 43 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.72    +5.28
AWAY   # 59 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.98    +3.02
HOME   # 22 Oklahoma State              87  80    +7.40    -0.40
AWAY   # 16 Iowa State                  76  72    -0.38    +4.38
HOME   # 61 Texas                       79  67   +14.17    -2.17
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia               69  85    -3.96   -12.04
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                    79  73    -3.42    +9.42
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      73  68    +5.65    -0.65
HOME   # 16 Iowa State                  89  92    +5.68    -8.68
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                74  71    +4.88    -1.88
AWAY   # 43 Texas Tech                  80  79    +5.66    -4.66
HOME   #  4 West Virginia               84  80    +2.10    +1.90
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      67  65    -0.41    +2.41
HOME   # 44 TCU                         87  68   +11.73    +7.27
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       77  67    +8.11    +1.89
HOME   # 59 Oklahoma                    73  63   +14.04    -4.04
AWAY   # 22 Oklahoma State              90  85    +1.34    +3.66
NEUT   # 44 TCU                         82  85    +8.70   -11.70
NEUT   #203 UC Davis                   100  62   +23.82   +14.18
NEUT   # 34 Michigan State              90  70    +8.30   +11.70
NEUT   # 12 Purdue                                +1.75             0.583    0.583
NEUT   # 13 Oregon                                +2.23             0.595    0.347
NEUT   #  2 North Carolina                        -1.44             0.438    0.152
NEUT   #  1 Gonzaga                               -2.31             0.402    0.061

Here is Purdue's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #324 McNeese State              109  65   +34.39    +9.61
HOME   #  3 Villanova                   76  79    +0.15    -3.15
HOME   #150 Georgia State               64  56   +21.35   -13.35
NEUT   #114 Utah State                  85  64   +16.38    +4.62
NEUT   # 79 Auburn                      96  71   +12.31   +12.69
HOME   #283 NJIT(New Jersey Tech)       79  68   +29.97   -18.97
AWAY   #  8 Louisville                  64  71    -4.23    -2.77
HOME   #199 Morehead State              90  56   +24.29    +9.71
NEUT   #111 Arizona State               97  64   +15.86   +17.14
HOME   #242 Cleveland State             77  53   +27.35    -3.35
NEUT   # 26 Notre Dame                  86  81    +3.28    +1.72
HOME   #299 Western Illinois            82  50   +31.22    +0.78
HOME   #302 Norfolk State               91  45   +31.76   +14.24
HOME   # 68 Iowa                        89  67   +13.53    +8.47
HOME   # 37 Minnesota                   82  91    +9.80   -18.80
AWAY   # 64 Ohio State                  76  75    +6.70    -5.70
HOME   # 17 Wisconsin                   66  55    +4.10    +6.90
AWAY   # 68 Iowa                        78  83    +7.47   -12.47
HOME   # 67 Illinois                    91  68   +13.45    +9.55
HOME   # 82 Penn State                  77  52   +15.60    +9.40
AWAY   # 34 Michigan State              84  73    +3.52    +7.48
AWAY   # 97 Nebraska                    80  83   +11.04   -14.04
HOME   # 38 Northwestern                80  59    +9.93   +11.07
AWAY   # 47 Maryland                    73  72    +4.77    -3.77
AWAY   # 30 Indiana                     69  64    +2.64    +2.36
HOME   #118 Rutgers                     74  55   +19.61    -0.61
HOME   # 34 Michigan State              80  63    +9.58    +7.42
AWAY   # 82 Penn State                  74  70    +9.54    -5.54
AWAY   # 21 Michigan                    70  82    -0.79   -11.21
HOME   # 30 Indiana                     86  75    +8.70    +2.30
AWAY   # 38 Northwestern                69  65    +3.87    +0.13
NEUT   # 21 Michigan                    70  74    +2.24    -6.24
NEUT   # 76 Vermont                     80  70   +11.86    -1.86
NEUT   # 16 Iowa State                  80  76    +0.90    +3.10
NEUT   #  6 Kansas                                -1.75             0.417