predictions for Oklahoma State game

Kansas has lost in Stillwater three years in a row.  It's Oklahoma State's
Senior Night.  Kansas has the Big 12 championship locked up.  All the
ingredients for another loss in Stillwater, right?  Then again, Oklahoma
State has four home losses, second-most in the conference; the only reason
they're doing well in the standings is because they also have five road
wins, second-most in the conference.  This game isn't on the road where
Oklahoma State has thrived.  Interesting to see how this one will play out.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 0.74 point margin, with a 52.9 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 158.0 points (they are the top two
teams in the Big 12 for highest scoring games), so the suggested "final" score
is Kansas 79, Oklahoma State 79 (with the rounding causing Kansas' 79.4 to
go down to 79 and Oklahoma State's 78.6 to go up to 79).  Kansas has played
an average of 0.34 points above expectation, while Oklahoma State has played
an average of 1.16 points above expectation, which decreases the margin for
Kansas to being a 0.08 point underdog.  Kansas is the conference's most
consistent team, while Oklahoma State is the conference's least consistent
team, differing by over 6 points.  But it doesn't matter in a toss-up game.
Kansas has played 13 out of 30 games below expectation by more than 0.8
points, which would be enough to lose today's game, corresponding to a 43.3
percent chance of losing.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has played 12 out of 29
Division I games above expectation by more than 0.8 points, which would be
enough to win today's game, corresponding to a 41.4 percent chance of the
Cowboys winning.  Those two average to a 42.4 percent chance of Kansas losing
the game, slightly more optimistic than the 47.1 percent chance of losing
derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  The trend for Kansas is flat,
while the trend for Oklahoma State is positive, though not statistically
significant.  The Cowboys have a positive mental toughness rating, but it's
also not statistically significant, while the negative rating for Kansas is
marginally significant.  Taken at face value, they make Kansas the underdog
by 1.53 points.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method favors Kansas by
0.59 points, with a "final" score of Kansas 86, Oklahoma State 86 (with the
rounding again causing Kansas' 86.1 to go down to 86 and Oklahoma State's
85.5 to go up to 86).

Massey gives Kansas a 1.0 point margin, with a 53 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 85, Oklahoma State 84.

Pomeroy has Oklahoma State with the better adjusted offense by 3.9 units,
while Kansas has the better adjusted defense by 7.4 units.  Those combine
to a 3.5 units advantage for Kansas.  With the average adjusted tempo being
70.6 possessions, the margin would be just 2.47 points, but Kansas becomes
the underdog by 0.54 points after accounting for Sagarin's 3.0 point home
court advantage.  The "final" score would then be Kansas 78, Oklahoma State
78, this time with Kansas getting rounded up and Oklahoma State getting
rounded down.

Greenfield makes Kansas a 1.5 point underdog, with a Vegas implied final
score of Kansas 81, Oklahoma State 82.5 (you pick the rounding).  Among the
key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five out of eight categories;
Oklahoma State scores 2.6 more points per game, grabs 2.3 percent more offensive
rebounds, and attempts 0.24 more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the
key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of the seven categories;
Oklahoma State grabs 0.4 more offensive rebounds per game and steals 0.8 more
balls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 3.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line
is at 1.0 points in favor of Oklahoma State, so he is picking Kansas in both
the game and against the spread.  His total points is 156, suggesting a final
score of Kansas 79.5, Oklahoma State 76.5 (you pick the roundings).  Meanwhile,
the Vegas total is 166.5, suggesting a final score of Kansas 83, Oklahoma State 84.

Real Time makes Kansas a 5.0 point underdog, with a 40.8 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 78, Oklahoma State 83.

Kansas has slipped into the #2 spot in the RPI behind Villanova, according
to Collegiate Basketball News.  Other Big 12 teams:  Baylor #5, West Virginia #22,
Iowa State #29, Oklahoma State #31, Kansas State #59, TCU #69, Texas Tech #103,
Oklahoma #160, Texas #165.  I suspect that a road win over Oklahoma State would
propel Kansas back into the #1 spot.

Dolphin makes Kansas a 0.2 point underdog, with a 49.4 percent probability of
winning, and a "final" score of Kansas 85, Oklahoma State 85.

Don Davis' February 18 email gives Kansas a 0.7 point margin, with a 52.5 percent
probability of winning, and a final score of Kansas 80, Oklahoma State 79.

Colley gives Kansas a 6.1 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 1.3 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 2.3 point margin, with a 58.3 percent
probability of winning.

Kansas moved up two spots in the LRMC to #5.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 2.0 point margin, a 72 percent probability of
winning, and projects a final score of Kansas 80, Oklahoma State 78.

Crotistics makes Kansas a 1.0 point underdog.

There are eight common opponents, all in conference, plus the head-to-head in
Lawrence, giving us seventeen scores to compare:

KU   +4 WVU at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)
OSU -17 WVU at home (-21 neutral court)     OSU  +7 WVU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  +17 OSU on road (-21 neutral court)     KU  -27 OSU on road (-23 neutral court)

KU  +10 UT  on road (+14 neutral court)     KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
OSU  -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)     OSU +13 UT  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU   +9 OSU on road (+13 neutral court)     KU   -5 OSU on road ( -1 neutral court)

KU   +2 BU  on road ( +6 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)
OSU  -4 BU  on road (  0 neutral court)     OSU  -3 BU  at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU   +2 OSU on road ( +6 neutral court)     KU   +4 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)

KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
OSU -10 ISU at home (-14 neutral court)     OSU  -3 ISU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU   +3 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +3 OSU on road ( +7 neutral court)

KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)     KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)
OSU  -8 KSU at home (-12 neutral court)     OSU +12 KSU on road (+16 neutral court)
KU   +6 OSU on road (+10 neutral court)     KU  -13 OSU on road ( -9 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
OSU +19 TTU on road (+23 neutral court)     OSU +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU  -22 OSU on road (-18 neutral court)     KU   -4 OSU at home (  0 neutral court)

KU  +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court)     KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
OSU +13 TCU at home ( +9 neutral court)     OSU  +3 TCU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +2 OSU on road ( +6 neutral court)     KU   -1 OSU on road ( +3 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +10 OU  at home ( +6 neutral court)
OSU  +2 OU  on road ( +6 neutral court)     OSU  +4 OU  at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   +5 OSU on road ( +9 neutrl aocurt)     KU   +2 OSU on road ( +6 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   -1 OSU on road ( +3 neutral court)

Ten of the seventeen comparisons favor Kansas, while seven favor Oklahoma State,
but the average is 1.2 points in favor of Oklahoma State, thanks largely to their
road win over West Virginia (where Kansas lost) and their huge road win over
Texas Tech (where Kansas won by only 1 point).

Players to watch:  Guard Phil Forte (is he STILL around?) plays the most minutes,
but that's it; guard Jawun Evans scores the most points, dishes the most assists,
and is their leading thief, but he also commits the most turnovers; guard Jeffrey
Carroll grabs the most rebounds; forward Mitchell Solomon blocks the most shots,
but also commits the most personal fouls.  Reserve guard Lindy Water has a foot
injury, but it is uncertain whether he'll be able to play or not.

So, the various prognostications range from a 6 point win (Colley) to a 5 point loss
(Real Time).  The average is 0.51 points in favor of Kansas, suggesting a "final"
score of Kansas 79, Oklahoma State 79.

Rock Chalk!

And a closing quotation:
     
   "Things that are inevitable:  death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   #  9   #  9   #  3   #  3   +0.3    6.6   +0.00 +/- 0.14   -0.14 +/- 0.13
Oklahoma State # 22   #  2   # 20   # 22   # 21   +1.2   12.7   +0.23 +/- 0.28   +0.05 +/- 0.20
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  1   #  9   #  9   #  6  #  3    #  6    #  1   # 32   #  1   # 18
Oklahoma State # 22  #  7   # 18   #  2   # 25  #  9    # 18    # 30   # 29   #171   # 37
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1   #  1   #  9   #  2   #  2   #  1   #  1   1.200   27-3     #     #   
Oklahoma State # 23   # 23   # 18   # 35   # 30   # 28   # 24   1.186   20-10    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  # 16    #  6  #  6    #  9  # 10    #  5  #  3    # 13  #  4    #  8  # 12
Oklahoma State # 32  # 27    # 21  # 25    # 27  #  7    # 18  # 16    # 35  # 14    # 22  # 13

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 28-3:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 31 Indiana                     99 103    +7.01   -11.01
NEUT   # 10 Duke                        77  75    +0.62    +1.38
HOME   #177 Siena                       86  65   +24.62    -3.62
HOME   #149 UAB                         83  63   +22.64    -2.64
HOME   # 52 Georgia                     65  54   +12.73    -1.73
HOME   #114 NC Asheville                95  57   +20.88   +17.12
HOME   #212 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.96    +3.04
HOME   # 89 Stanford                    89  74   +17.38    -2.38
HOME   #236 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.26   +14.74
HOME   # 86 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.29    -0.29
HOME   # 85 Davidson                    89  71   +17.17    +0.83
AWAY   #220 UNLV                        71  53   +21.51    -3.51
AWAY   # 42 TCU                         86  80    +5.59    +0.41
HOME   # 39 Kansas State                90  88   +11.38    -9.38
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.67    +6.33
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.29    +3.71
HOME   # 20 Oklahoma State              87  80    +6.76    +0.24
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.20    +3.80
HOME   # 61 Texas                       79  67   +14.12    -2.12
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               69  85    -4.91   -11.09
AWAY   #  4 Kentucky                    79  73    -3.98    +9.98
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      73  68    +5.13    -0.13
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.22    -9.22
AWAY   # 39 Kansas State                74  71    +5.36    -2.36
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  80  79    +4.65    -3.65
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               84  80    +1.11    +2.89
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      67  65    -0.89    +2.89
HOME   # 42 TCU                         87  68   +11.61    +7.39
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       77  67    +8.10    +1.90
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma                    73  63   +13.31    -3.31
AWAY   # 20 Oklahoma State                        +0.74             0.529

Here is Oklahoma State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #298 Campbell                   102  65   +29.00    +8.00
HOME   #316 Central Arkansas           102  90   +30.77   -18.77
HOME   #219 New Orleans                117  72   +23.77   +21.23
NEUT   # 77 Connecticut                 98  90    +9.54    -1.54
NEUT   #  3 North Carolina              75 107    -5.46   -26.54
NEUT   # 53 Georgetown                  97  70    +6.11   +20.89
Div2        Rogers State               101  85
AWAY   # 44 Maryland                    70  71    +1.89    -2.89
AWAY   #119 Tulsa                       71  67   +11.33    -7.33
HOME   #348 Ark.-Pine Bluff            102  66   +39.01    -3.01
AWAY   # 11 Wichita State               93  76    -5.73   +22.73
HOME   #223 Texas A&M-CorpusChristi     92  70   +23.84    -1.84
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               75  92    -2.64   -14.36
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       79  82    +4.35    -7.35
AWAY   # 15 Baylor                      57  61    -4.64    +0.64
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                  86  96    +2.47   -12.47
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                      80  87    -6.76    -0.24
HOME   # 39 Kansas State                88  96    +7.63   -15.63
AWAY   # 35 Texas Tech                  83  64    +0.90   +18.10
HOME   # 42 TCU                         89  76    +7.86    +5.14
HOME   # 46 Arkansas                    99  71    +8.08   +19.92
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma                    68  66    +3.54    -1.54
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               82  75    -8.66   +15.66
HOME   # 15 Baylor                      69  72    +1.38    -4.38
HOME   # 61 Texas                       84  71   +10.37    +2.63
AWAY   # 42 TCU                         71  68    +1.84    +1.16
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma                    96  92    +9.56    -5.56
AWAY   # 39 Kansas State                80  68    +1.61   +10.39
HOME   # 35 Texas Tech                  80  63    +6.92   +10.08
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                  83  86    -3.55    +0.55
HOME   #  9 Kansas                                -0.74             0.471