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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 17
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7 years 1 month ago #12081
by asteroid
"Things that are inevitable:
death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
--Doug Gottlieb
West Virginia's huge home win over Baylor did NOT translate into a victory
in Waco, while Iowa State was handling the Cowboys in Ames, which gave the
Cyclones second place in the Big 12. Baylor and West Virginia are now in a
virtual tie for third place. Meanwhile, Kansas State won the battle of the
bubble teams in Fort Worth, retaking sixth place in the process.
Iowa State can claim sole possession of second place with a win in Morgantown,
but that won't be easy. More likely, the Mountaineers will win, as will the
Bears in Austin, leaving us with a three-way tie for second place. As always
with the last conference game of the season, the fractional projected wins is
just the probability of winning the last game. Oklahoma is favored in their
final game, which could give Texas sole possession of last place, but TCU
desperately needs to bolster their resume AND do well in the conference
tournament, so it won't be easy for the Sooners. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has
the harder task of winning in Manhattan, having not won a conference road
game all season. In fact, the Red Raiders have but one road win in all games,
having beaten Richmond in late December. That isn't going to look good to
the Selection Committee, even though their Predictor ranking is higher than
either TCU or Kansas State.
Init. Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16 Rd 17
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 9 Kansas 13.34 14.15 14.68 15.27 15.33 15.47 15.53 15 2 @OSU (Sa) KU by 0.8 RW
# 18 Iowa State 9.97 10.22 10.74 10.99 11.44 11.86 12.25 12 5 @WVU (Sa)
# 2 West Virginia 14.20 12.39 11.90 12.01 12.10 12.31 11.75 11 6 ISU (Sa) WVU by 8.0
# 15 Baylor 11.51 12.81 12.10 11.52 11.59 11.17 11.75 11 6 @UT (Sa) BU by 6.0 RW
# 19 Oklahoma State 8.55 8.43 8.90 9.03 9.56 9.85 9.47 9 8 KU (Sa)
# 39 Kansas State 6.26 8.19 7.64 8.14 7.59 6.97 7.60 7 10 TTU (Sa) KSU by 2.3
# 43 TCU 7.42 8.11 7.63 7.38 7.30 7.09 6.44 6 11 @OU (Sa)
# 34 Texas Tech 8.00 6.22 6.91 6.82 6.38 6.15 6.40 6 11 @KSU (Sa)
# 55 Oklahoma 5.71 3.80 4.24 4.08 4.03 4.62 4.56 4 13 TCU (Sa) OU by 1.3
# 62 Texas 5.04 5.68 5.26 4.76 4.68 4.51 4.25 4 12 BU (Sa)
Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 17, its first win of
the season. Sagarin retains the season lead marginally over Vegas.
Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
WVU > BU 1.5 -2.0 -0.9 -1.5 5.0 -2.0 -5.8 1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -3.0 -1.5 2.4 1.9 -0.3 -10.
TCU > KSU 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.0 9.0 2.0 3.6 3.4 2.2 3.0 1.0 4.4 3.5 4.0 8.7 7.0
ISU > OSU 3.7 3.0 1.8 3.0 13.0 3.5 2.2 2.6 2.4 5.9 3.0 4.3 3.2 3.7 0.6 8.0
TTU > UT 6.2 8.0 7.1 8.0 3.5 8.5 8.9 6.0 6.9 8.9 9.0 8.7 7.2 7.7 5.7 19.0
KU > OU 13.5 14.0 13.7 14.5 23.0 13.5 24.6 13.1 14.8 19.1 17.0 15.9 14.5 15.1 13.9 28.0
Reality Er1or + 1 1 1 1 3 3+ 1 3 1 55 45
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
-9 10.5 7.0 8.1 7.5 14.0 7.0 3.2 10.1 7.9 7.9 6.0 7.5 11.4 10.9 8.7 1.0
-1 4.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 10.0 3.0 4.6 4.4 3.2 4.0 2.0 5.4 4.5 5.0 9.7 8.0
3 0.7 0.0 1.2 0.0 10.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 2.9 0.0 1.3 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.0
10 3.8 2.0 2.9 2.0 6.5 1.5 1.1 4.0 3.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 2.8 2.3 4.3 9.0
10 3.5 4.0 3.7 4.5 13.0 3.5 14.6 3.1 4.8 9.1 7.0 5.9 4.5 5.1 3.9 18.0
total 22.5 16.0 19.4 17.0 53.5 15.5 24.3 22.0 19.6 25.0 16.0 21.4 23.4 24.0 29.0 41.0
previous 520.9 541.0 540.2 542.5 660.5 530.0 677.4 541.8 549.0 335.7 584.0 556.2 553.8 557.7 563.3 331.0
cumulat. 543.4 557.0 559.6 559.5 714.0 545.5 701.7 563.8 568.6 360.7 600.0 577.6 577.2 581.7 592.3 372.0
per game 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 8.4 6.4 8.3 6.6 6.7 6.6 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.0 8.3
Only 1 road win had been projected for Round 17, and only 1 occurred,
just not the one we projected. Kansas State won the battle of the
bubble teams in Fort Worth, while Baylor exacted revenge for its loss
in Morgantown. Two road wins are projected for Round 18, though
historically the Jayhawks have had trouble winning in Stillwater.
Baylor really needs to win in Austin to secure a share of second place.
Road wins (33 out of 85) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- --------------------
7 Kansas TCU OU ISU KSU TTU BU UT 1 Kansas ISU +6 Kansas
5 Iowa State OSU OU KU KSU TTU 2 Baylor KSU KU +3 Iowa State
5 Oklahoma State TTU OU WVU TCU KSU 2 Iowa State KU WVU +3 West Virginia
5 West Virginia OSU UT ISU OU TCU 2 West Virginia OU OSU +2 Baylor
4 Baylor OU KSU TCU OSU 3 Texas Tech OSU KU ISU +1 Oklahoma State
4 Kansas State OSU BU UT TCU 4 Oklahoma State WVU ISU KSU BU -1 Kansas State
2 TCU UT KSU 4 Texas TCU WVU KSU KU -3 TCU
1 Oklahoma WVU 5 Kansas State BU TCU KU ISU OSU -3 Texas Tech
0 Texas 5 Oklahoma BU KU ISU OSU WVU -4 Oklahoma
0 Texas Tech 5 TCU KU BU OSU WVU KSU -4 Texas
If someone had told me that we'd be at the last game of the season with a team having
an inconsistency of less than 7 points, I wouldn't have believed it.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia +1.24 Kansas 6.62
Oklahoma State +1.16 Texas Tech 7.65
TCU +0.68 TCU 7.76
Iowa State +0.67 Baylor 8.16
Baylor +0.41 Kansas State 9.49
Kansas +0.34 Texas 9.83
Kansas State +0.24 Oklahoma 11.07
Texas Tech +0.20 Iowa State 11.16
Oklahoma -0.52 West Virginia 12.32
Texas -0.74 Oklahoma State 12.66
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Oklahoma +0.28 +/- 0.24 Baylor +0.16 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma State +0.23 +/- 0.28 Texas +0.14 +/- 0.18
Texas +0.14 +/- 0.21 Kansas State +0.10 +/- 0.15
Kansas 0.00 +/- 0.14 Oklahoma State +0.06 +/- 0.20
Texas Tech -0.07 +/- 0.16 Oklahoma -0.01 +/- 0.19
Baylor -0.11 +/- 0.18 Texas Tech -0.10 +/- 0.11
Iowa State -0.18 +/- 0.25 Kansas -0.14 +/- 0.14
TCU -0.21 +/- 0.17 West Virginia -0.14 +/- 0.18
Kansas State -0.27 +/- 0.20 Iowa State -0.17 +/- 0.18
West Virginia -0.50 +/- 0.25 TCU -0.25 +/- 0.13
Will playing Kansas State on the road be enough to move Texas Tech into the Top 40 in
strength of schedule? Having six of the top eight strengths of schedule is amazing.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma State 84.97 Baylor 63.31 Oklahoma State 162.00 West Virginia +16.13
West Virginia 83.20 West Virginia 67.07 Kansas 154.03 Kansas +9.90
Kansas 81.97 Texas Tech 68.13 Iowa State 151.93 Iowa State +8.69
Iowa State 80.31 Kansas State 68.47 West Virginia 150.27 Oklahoma State +7.93
Texas Tech 74.20 Texas 69.77 Oklahoma 147.41 Baylor +7.90
Oklahoma 72.97 TCU 70.34 TCU 143.31 Texas Tech +6.07
TCU 72.97 Iowa State 71.62 Texas Tech 142.33 Kansas State +4.13
Kansas State 72.60 Kansas 72.07 Kansas State 141.07 TCU +2.62
Baylor 71.21 Oklahoma 74.45 Texas 137.33 Oklahoma -1.48
Texas 67.57 Oklahoma State 77.03 Baylor 134.52 Texas -2.20
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 83.22 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 82.38 ( 2)
Texas 82.30 ( 3)
Baylor 82.29 ( 4)
Iowa State 81.73 ( 6)
Kansas 81.41 ( 8)
TCU 80.73 (13)
Kansas State 79.95 (22)
West Virginia 79.15 (38)
Texas Tech 78.34 (47)
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, sasnak, JayhawkChef, porthawk, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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