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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 16
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7 years 2 months ago #11955
by asteroid
Lots of changes to the projected standings after Round 16. First off:
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
That's 13 times for those of you who didn't bother to count them.
"Things that are inevitable:
death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
--Doug Gottlieb
Iowa State defended its home court against Baylor, and that was enough
to propel the Cyclones into 3rd place ahead of the Bears. Oklahoma's
huge home win over Kansas State gave the Sooners a fractional win lead
over Texas for 9th place, dropping the Longhorns into last. That win
also boosted the Sooners' Sagarin Predictor rating by enough to reduce
the Kansas win probability on Monday by enough to keep the rounding
from going up to 16 wins. And the victim of Oklahoma's surge, namely
Kansas State, swapped places with TCU, whom the Wildcats play on
Wednesday, quite possibly for the right to dance next month, as the
loser will pick up an 11th conference loss and a likely burst bubble.
Of course, there is still the conference tournament that could salvage
an NCAA bid.
Round 17 features mostly close games. Oklahoma's stunningly large
victory over Kansas State raises questions about the 13.5 point margin
for Kansas, but hey, it's Senior Night. The Jayhawks wouldn't allow a
loss to occur, would they?
Init. Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 7 Kansas 13.34 13.93 14.15 14.68 15.27 15.33 15.47 14 2 OU (Mo) KU by 13.5
# 2 West Virginia 14.20 12.21 12.39 11.90 12.01 12.10 12.31 11 5 @BU (Mo) WVU by 1.5 RW
# 18 Iowa State 9.97 10.03 10.22 10.74 10.99 11.44 11.86 11 5 OSU (Tu) ISU by 3.6
# 15 Baylor 11.51 12.60 12.81 12.10 11.52 11.59 11.17 10 6 WVU (Mo)
# 20 Oklahoma State 8.55 8.14 8.43 8.90 9.03 9.56 9.85 9 7 @ISU (Tu)
# 43 Kansas State 6.26 8.35 8.19 7.64 8.14 7.59 6.97 6 10 @TCU (We)
# 40 TCU 7.42 8.34 8.11 7.63 7.38 7.30 7.09 6 10 KSU (We) TCU by 3.1
# 36 Texas Tech 8.00 6.46 6.22 6.91 6.82 6.38 6.15 5 11 UT (We) TTU by 6.2
# 56 Oklahoma 5.71 4.00 3.80 4.24 4.08 4.03 4.62 4 12 @KU (Mo)
# 61 Texas 5.04 5.94 5.68 5.26 4.76 4.68 4.51 4 12 @TTU (We)
Real Time edged out my trend analysis for best prognostications in Round 16.
Dunkel's web site is hosed, displaying only the first page of the day's games.
When you go to page 2, it takes you back to February 22. The one page of
Saturday's games that had been there yesterday is now inaccessible. But if
you had to pick a round to sit out, Round 16 was a good one, as nobody
expected Oklahoma's huge win over Kansas State (though my trend analysis did
pick Oklahoma to win), so scores for the round are bad across the board.
Sagarin retains the season lead.
Predictions
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
KSU ov OU 0.7 3.0 2.1 1.5 6.8 1.4 2.2 1.6 3.0 2.0 1.7 1.2 -3.5 4.0
ISU ov BU 2.1 1.0 0.2 2.0 -5.4 1.6 -0.2 1.8 -1.0 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.2 5.0
OSU ov TTU 6.6 7.0 7.2 6.5 7.5 6.9 6.9 5.9 7.0 7.8 7.5 8.1 8.7 14.0
WVU ov TCU 8.0 7.0 6.4 4.5 1.9 7.4 6.0 8.0 6.0 3.5 8.6 8.1 6.4 3.0
KU ov UT 8.2 10.0 8.8 7.5 18.2 8.2 9.8 9.8 12.0 8.7 9.3 8.8 8.4 11.0
Reality Er1or + 1 1 1 3 3+ 1 3 1
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
-28 28.7 31.0 30.1 29.5 34.8 29.4 30.2 29.6 31.0 30.0 29.7 29.2 24.5 32.0
3 0.9 2.0 2.8 1.0 8.4 1.4 3.2 1.2 4.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.8 2.0
17 10.4 10.0 9.8 10.5 9.5 10.1 10.1 11.1 10.0 9.2 9.5 8.9 8.3 3.0
1 7.0 6.0 5.4 3.5 0.9 6.4 5.0 7.0 5.0 2.5 7.6 7.1 5.4 2.0
10 1.8 0.0 1.2 2.5 8.2 1.8 0.2 0.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.0
total 48.8 49.0 49.3 47.0 61.8 49.1 48.7 49.1 52.0 43.6 48.1 46.5 40.6 40.0
previous 472.1 492.0 490.9 495.5 604.0 484.0 615.6 492.7 500.3 286.6 532.0 512.6 505.7 511.2 522.7 291.0
cumulat. 520.9 541.0 540.2 542.5 604.0 484.0 677.4 541.8 549.0 335.7 584.0 556.2 553.8 557.7 563.3 331.0
per game 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 8.1 6.5 8.5 6.8 6.9 6.7 7.3 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 8.3
3 road wins had been projected for Round 16, though one of them was
projected to be a one-possession game. That turned into a shocking
nine-possession game in favor of the home team, so only 2 road wins
occurred. Only 1 road win is projected for Round 17, but that is
projected as a one-possession game, and Baylor ought to be especially
motivated after losing 3 of their last 4 games.
Road wins (32 out of 80) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- --------------------
7 Kansas TCU OU ISU KSU TTU BU UT 1 Kansas ISU +6 Kansas
5 Iowa State OSU OU KU KSU TTU 2 Baylor KSU KU +3 Iowa State
5 Oklahoma State TTU OU WVU TCU KSU 2 Iowa State KU WVU +3 West Virginia
5 West Virginia OSU UT ISU OU TCU 2 West Virginia OU OSU +2 Baylor
4 Baylor OU KSU TCU OSU 3 Texas Tech OSU KU ISU +1 Oklahoma State
3 Kansas State OSU BU UT 4 Oklahoma State WVU ISU KSU BU -2 Kansas State
2 TCU UT KSU 4 TCU KU BU OSU WVU -2 TCU
1 Oklahoma WVU 4 Texas TCU WVU KSU KU -3 Texas Tech
0 Texas 5 Kansas State BU TCU KU ISU OSU -4 Oklahoma
0 Texas Tech 5 Oklahoma BU KU ISU OSU WVU -4 Texas
The inconsistency for Kansas State jumped from 7.9 to 9.4 points, and
for Oklahoma from 9.8 to 11.0 points. Their game was almost 27 points
from expectation. A truly rare event.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia +1.33 Kansas 6.71
Oklahoma State +1.20 Texas Tech 7.79
TCU +0.73 TCU 7.95
Iowa State +0.71 Kansas State 9.40
Baylor +0.39 Baylor 8.13
Kansas +0.36 Texas 10.02
Kansas State +0.29 Oklahoma 11.04
Texas Tech +0.20 Iowa State 11.27
Oklahoma -0.61 West Virginia 12.30
Texas -0.78 Oklahoma State 12.86
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Oklahoma State +0.26 +/- 0.30 Texas +0.16 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma +0.25 +/- 0.26 Baylor +0.14 +/- 0.15
Texas +0.18 +/- 0.22 Kansas State +0.10 +/- 0.15
Kansas +0.03 +/- 0.15 Oklahoma State +0.06 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech -0.10 +/- 0.18 Oklahoma -0.03 +/- 0.20
Iowa State -0.18 +/- 0.27 Texas Tech -0.09 +/- 0.11
Baylor -0.20 +/- 0.19 West Virginia -0.11 +/- 0.19
TCU -0.21 +/- 0.19 Kansas -0.14 +/- 0.14
Kansas State -0.30 +/- 0.20 Iowa State -0.16 +/- 0.18
West Virginia -0.47 +/- 0.26 TCU -0.25 +/- 0.13
TCU didn't quite jump into the Top 10 in strength of schedule after playing
West Virginia, and with their remaining games against Kansas State and
Oklahoma, probably won't make it into the Top 10.
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma State 84.96 Baylor 63.29 Oklahoma State 161.75 West Virginia +16.86
West Virginia 83.86 West Virginia 67.00 Kansas 154.66 Kansas +10.03
Kansas 82.34 Kansas State 68.34 Iowa State 151.32 Iowa State +9.04
Iowa State 80.18 Texas Tech 68.45 West Virginia 150.86 Oklahoma State +8.18
Texas Tech 74.52 Texas 69.93 Oklahoma 147.89 Baylor +8.00
Oklahoma 73.25 TCU 70.11 TCU 143.11 Texas Tech +6.07
TCU 73.00 Iowa State 71.14 Texas Tech 142.97 Kansas State +4.17
Kansas State 72.52 Kansas 72.31 Kansas State 140.86 TCU +2.89
Baylor 71.29 Oklahoma 74.64 Texas 137.79 Oklahoma -1.39
Texas 67.86 Oklahoma State 76.79 Baylor 134.57 Texas -2.07
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 82.73 ( 1)
Texas 82.05 ( 2)
Oklahoma State 81.97 ( 3)
Baylor 81.97 ( 4)
Kansas 81.58 ( 7)
Iowa State 81.55 ( 8)
TCU 80.76 (11)
Kansas State 79.61 (25)
West Virginia 78.48 (45)
Texas Tech 78.38 (48)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant
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