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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 15
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7 years 2 months ago #11818
by asteroid
No changes to the projected standings after Round 15. Oh, except
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
BIG 12 CHAMPS!!!
That's 13 times for those of you who didn't bother to count them.
"Things that are inevitable:
death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
--Doug Gottlieb
In Round 16, Kansas can end anyone's hope of sharing the crown with
a road win over Texas. Baylor is actually projected to lose in Ames,
which would also end their chances of sharing the title. Five Big 12
teams are safely dancing next month. The conference really ought to
get eight teams into the Dance, but it's hard for the Selection
Committee to pick a team with a 7-11 conference record, especially
one with such a weak non-conference schedule, so Texas Tech really
has no margin for error. Meanwhile, Kansas State and TCU both need
a couple more wins, but they have to play each other. The loser of
that game could well have a bubble burst on them. The Wildcats
absolutely must defeat Oklahoma in Norman, but it is projected to be
a one-possession game. The Horned Frogs must also defeat Oklahoma in
Norman for their season finale, because expecting to beat West Virginia
is expecting a bit much. Which means TCU would also have to beat
Kansas State to get their 8th win, so the path to 8 wins for Kansas
State involves beating Texas Tech, thereby causing the Red Raiders'
bubble to burst. Tech's path to the Dance involves getting road wins
in Stillwater and Manhattan, but they have yet to earn a conference
road win. I just don't see it happening for the Red Raiders, and if
the projected 6-12 record materializes, the committee may not even
waste any time discussing them.
Init. Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 8 Kansas 13.34 13.65 13.93 14.15 14.68 15.27 15.33 13 2 @UT (Sa) KU by 8.1 RW
# 2 West Virginia 14.20 12.00 12.21 12.39 11.90 12.01 12.10 10 5 @TCU (Sa) WVU by 7.9 RW
# 16 Baylor 11.51 12.04 12.60 12.81 12.10 11.52 11.59 10 5 @ISU (Sa)
# 18 Iowa State 9.97 10.72 10.03 10.22 10.74 10.99 11.44 10 5 BU (Sa) ISU by 2.1
# 20 Oklahoma State 8.55 8.67 8.14 8.43 8.90 9.03 9.56 8 7 TTU (Sa) OSU by 6.6
# 33 Kansas State 6.26 8.61 8.35 8.19 7.64 8.14 7.59 6 9 @OU (Sa) KSU by 0.7 RW
# 43 TCU 7.42 8.01 8.34 8.11 7.63 7.38 7.30 6 9 WVU (Sa)
# 34 Texas Tech 8.00 6.79 6.46 6.22 6.91 6.82 6.38 5 10 @OSU (Sa)
# 60 Texas 5.04 5.27 5.94 5.68 5.26 4.76 4.68 4 11 KU (Sa)
# 64 Oklahoma 5.71 4.24 4.00 3.80 4.24 4.08 4.03 3 12 KSU (Sa)
My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 15.
Sagarin has the season lead.
Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
KSU > OSU 0.2 1.0 0.7 3.5 7.0 2.5 0.5 0.3 1.1 3.0 1.0 1.4 -0.5 0.0 -3.8 6.0
ISU > TTU 1.2 1.0 -0.1 -3.0 2.0 -1.5 0.0 0.6 -0.1 -1.7 -5.0 -0.9 1.7 1.2 0.0 -4.0
KU > TCU 11.5 13.0 10.9 12.0 10.5 13.0 15.7 10.9 12.0 15.2 17.0 11.5 11.0 11.5 14.2 15.0
BU > OU 12.4 13.0 14.1 12.5 14.0 12.0 22.4 12.3 14.1 16.3 14.0 15.3 13.6 14.1 10.5 24.0
WVU > UT 16.4 16.0 16.4 15.5 13.5 16.0 16.6 15.8 15.5 23.0 17.0 17.6 17.1 17.6 11.4 30.0
Reality Er1or + 1 1 1 3 3+ 1 3
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
-12 12.2 13.0 12.7 15.5 19.0 14.5 12.5 12.3 13.1 15.0 13.0 13.4 11.5 12.0 8.2 18.0
2 0.8 1.0 2.1 5.0 0.0 3.5 2.0 1.4 2.1 3.7 7.0 2.9 0.3 0.8 2.0 6.0
19 7.5 6.0 8.1 7.0 8.5 6.0 3.3 8.1 7.0 3.8 2.0 7.5 8.0 7.5 4.8 4.0
6 6.4 7.0 8.1 6.5 8.0 6.0 16.4 6.3 8.1 10.3 8.0 9.3 7.6 8.1 4.5 18.0
15 1.4 1.0 1.4 0.5 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.5 8.0 2.0 2.6 2.1 2.6 3.6 15.0
total 28.3 28.0 32.4 34.5 37.0 31.0 35.8 28.9 30.8 40.8 32.0 35.7 29.5 31.0 23.1 61.0
previous 443.8 464.0 458.5 461.0 567.0 453.0 579.8 463.8 469.5 245.8 500.0 476.9 476.2 480.2 499.6 230.0
cumulat 472.1 492.0 490.9 495.5 604.0 484.0 615.6 492.7 500.3 286.6 532.0 512.6 505.7 511.2 522.7 291.0
per game 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.6 8.1 6.5 8.2 6.6 6.7 6.4 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.0 8.3
We're now at the 30 road wins level that you would expect for a
90 road game season with an average of one road win in every 3
games. Any road win from now to the end of the season will
increase the statistical anomaly. Being within 2 road wins of
the long-term average won't be unprecedented, but 3 is borderline
unusual, and 4 would raise eyebrows. We've still got 3 rounds to
go, with 3 road wins projected for Round 16, though one of them
isn't at all a sure thing.
Road wins (30 out of 75) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- --------------------
6 Kansas TCU OU ISU KSU TTU BU 1 Kansas ISU +5 Kansas
5 Iowa State OSU OU KU KSU TTU 2 Baylor KSU KU +3 Iowa State
5 Oklahoma State TTU OU WVU TCU KSU 2 Iowa State KU WVU +2 Baylor
4 Baylor OU KSU TCU OSU 2 West Virginia OU OSU +2 West Virginia
4 West Virginia OSU UT ISU OU 3 TCU KU BU OSU +1 Oklahoma State
3 Kansas State OSU BU UT 3 Texas TCU WVU KSU -1 TCU
2 TCU UT KSU 3 Texas Tech OSU KU ISU -2 Kansas State
1 Oklahoma WVU 4 Oklahoma State WVU ISU KSU BU -3 Texas Tech
0 Texas 5 Kansas State BU TCU KU ISU OSU -3 Texas
0 Texas Tech 5 Oklahoma BU KU ISU OSU WVU -4 Oklahoma
Will the newly minted positive trend for Kansas survive the trip to Austin?
Not that it matters; it won't be statistically significant, regardless of the
sign.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia +1.42 Kansas 6.72
Oklahoma State +1.20 Texas Tech 7.59
TCU +0.76 Kansas State 7.91
Iowa State +0.73 TCU 8.02
Baylor +0.41 Baylor 8.14
Kansas +0.38 Oklahoma 9.76
Kansas State +0.34 Texas 10.15
Texas Tech +0.24 Iowa State 11.42
Oklahoma -0.67 West Virginia 12.45
Texas -0.77 Oklahoma State 12.97
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Texas +0.21 +/- 0.24 Texas +0.16 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State +0.20 +/- 0.32 Kansas State +0.14 +/- 0.12
Oklahoma +0.05 +/- 0.25 Baylor +0.13 +/- 0.15
Kansas +0.02 +/- 0.16 Oklahoma State +0.05 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech -0.04 +/- 0.18 Oklahoma -0.02 +/- 0.17
Kansas State -0.13 +/- 0.19 Texas Tech -0.07 +/- 0.11
Iowa State -0.20 +/- 0.29 West Virginia -0.10 +/- 0.19
Baylor -0.22 +/- 0.20 Kansas -0.16 +/- 0.14
TCU -0.28 +/- 0.19 Iowa State -0.16 +/- 0.18
West Virginia -0.46 +/- 0.28 TCU -0.28 +/- 0.13
After Baylor played Oklahoma at home on Tuesday, the strength of schedule
for the Bears fell by enough for Kansas to take over 3rd place nationally,
but one day later, Kansas played TCU at home, and the result was a slide
to 7th place nationally, though almost a tie with Baylor. Both Baylor and
Kansas are on the road Saturday, but Iowa State is a tougher opponent than
Texas, so the virtual tie will be broken in favor of Baylor, and then West
Virginia comes to Waco next week while Kansas hosts Oklahoma, so Kansas
will not be moving ahead of Baylor in strength of schedule anytime soon.
Meanwhile, Texas went to Morgantown on Monday and is hosting Kansas on
Saturday, which ought to solidify their position with the #3 strength of
schedule. Will TCU crack the Top Ten after hosting West Virginia?
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma State 85.22 Baylor 63.04 Oklahoma State 162.44 West Virginia +17.29
West Virginia 84.61 West Virginia 67.32 Kansas 155.04 Kansas +9.89
Kansas 82.46 Kansas State 67.96 West Virginia 151.93 Iowa State +9.41
Iowa State 80.56 Texas Tech 68.11 Iowa State 151.70 Baylor +8.26
Texas Tech 74.86 Texas 69.61 Oklahoma 148.41 Oklahoma State +8.00
TCU 73.56 TCU 70.37 TCU 143.93 Texas Tech +6.75
Kansas State 73.14 Iowa State 71.15 Texas Tech 142.96 Kansas State +5.18
Oklahoma 73.04 Kansas 72.57 Kansas State 141.11 TCU +3.19
Baylor 71.30 Oklahoma 75.37 Texas 137.57 Texas -1.64
Texas 67.96 Oklahoma State 77.22 Baylor 134.33 Oklahoma -2.33
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma 83.00 ( 1)
Oklahoma State 82.12 ( 2)
Texas 81.71 ( 3)
Baylor 81.60 ( 6)
Kansas 81.60 ( 7)
Iowa State 81.24 ( 8)
TCU 80.31 (15)
Kansas State 79.04 (29)
West Virginia 78.10 (48)
Texas Tech 77.63 (56)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, newtonhawk, jaythawk1
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