predictions for TCU game

And it's time for the rematch with the Topeka YMCA.  Oh wait, the game is in
Lawrence, not Fort Worth.  Never mind.  You can bet the Jayhawks want to win
the conference championship in front of their home crowd.

Sagarin gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin, with a 94.1 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 149.3 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 80, TCU 69.  Kansas has played an average of 0.3 points above
expectation, while TCU has played an average of 0.9 points above expectation,
which decreases the margin for Kansas to 11.0 points.  TCU has been more
consistent than the national average, though not as consistent as Kansas.  The
Jayhawks have not played a single game below expectation by more than 11 points
(a stunning remark to make this late in the season), corresponding to a 100
percent probability of winning the game.  However, TCU has played 2 of their
26 Division I games above expectation by more than 11 points, both against
non-conference opponents, corresponding to an 8 percent chance of winning the
game.  Indeed, TCU's best conference game came at Kansas State, when the Horned
Frogs played 10.3 points above expectation.  A repeat of that would make things
close, but not quite enough.  Anyway, those two probabilities average to just a
4 percent chance of Kansas losing, a bit more optmistic than what was derived
from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Both teams have negative trends, though
TCU's is marginally significant.  Both teams also have negative mental toughness
ratings, which works in Kansas' favor.  Taken at face value, the margin for
Kansas would be 14.2 points.  Meanwhile, the new Sagarin "offense-defense"
method favors Kansas by 11.0 points, with a final score of Kansas 81, TCU 70.

Massey gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin, with an 88 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 82, TCU 69.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 8.9 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 2.5 units.  With the average adjusted tempo
being 68.9 possessions, the margin for Kansas would be 10.9 points after
including Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.  The final score would
then be Kansas 79, TCU 68.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 81, TCU 69.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in seven of the eight categories; TCU has 0.2 more assists per game.  Among the
key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of the seven categories;
TCU holds opponents to 2.8 fewer points per game and commits 1.5 fewer personal
fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 10.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
13.0 points, so he is picking TCU against the spread.  Dunkel's total points is
142.0, suggesting a final score of Kansas 76, TCU 66, while the Vegas total is
148.5, suggesting a final score of Kansas 81, TCU 68.

Real Time gives Kansas a 15.0 point margin, with a 77.9 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 87, TCU 72.

We're #1!
We're #1!
We're #1!

The road win over Baylor propelled Kansas into the #1 spot in the RPI, according
to Collegiate Basketball News, with Villanova still at #2, Louisville at #3, and
Baylor down to #4.  Oklahoma State is still third in the Big 12 at #28, while
West Virginia rose a spot to #29.  Iowa State is #38, Kansas State is #55, while
TCU dropped all the way to #56.  Texas Tech fell to #100 after losing at home to
Iowa State.  Do I hear bubbles bursting in Lubbock?  Well, they could still win
the conference tournament.  Or not.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 10.9 point margin, with an 82.4 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 80, TCU 70, with the rounding working in
the Horned Frogs' favor.

Don Davis gives Kansas an 11.4 point margin, with a 93.8 percent probability of
winning, and a final score of Kansas 80, TCU 69.

Colley gives Kansas a 15.7 point underdog using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 15.2 point margin, with a 91.2 percent
probability of winning.

The LRMC has Gonzaga ranked as #1, West Virginia as #2, Kansas as #8, and
TCU as #48.  Interestingly, Texas Tech is #29, which the Red Raiders ought
to be pointing out to the Selection Committee.

How can you win a big road game over a highly ranked opponent and yet fall
in the rankings?  Kansas was #5 in the Seven Overtimes rankings before the
Baylor game, but only #7 now.  Go figure.  And they have TCU ranked WAY down
at #116.  Nobody else has the Horned Frogs that low.  What is Seven Overtimes
smoking?  Anyway, Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 17.0 point margin, a 90 percent
probability of winning, and projects a final score of Kansas 83, TCU 66.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin.

There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus UNLV.  If we use
only the home-home and road-road permutations for cases in which both teams
have finished their series with the same opponent, we have seventeen scores
to compare:

KU  +18 UNLV on road (+22 neutral court)
TCU  +4 UNLV on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  +18 TCU  at home (+14 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
TCU  +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU  +20 TCU at home (+16 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)     KU   +4 WVU at home (  0 neutral court)
TCU -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)     TCU -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral court)
KU    0 TCU at home ( -4 neutral court)     KU  +12 TCU at home ( +8 neutral court)

KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
TCU  +3 UT  on road ( +7 neutral court)     TCU +15 UT  at home (+11 neutral court)
KU   +5 TCU at home ( +1 neutral court)     KU   +1 TCU at home ( -3 neutral court)

KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)     KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
TCU  +7 ISU at home ( +3 neutral court)     TCU -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU   -6 TCU at home (-10 neutral court)     KU  +21 TCU at home (+17 neutral court)

KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
TCU  -6 TTU on road ( -2 neutral court)     TCU  +1 TTU at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU  +11 TCU at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +20 TCU at home (+16 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)     KU   +2 BU  on road ( +6 neutral court)
TCU  -9 BU  at home (-13 neutral court)     TCU -18 BU  on road (-14 neutral court)
KU  +18 TCU at home (+14 neutral court)     KU  +24 TCU at home (+20 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
TCU -13 OSU on road ( -9 neutral court)     TCU  -3 OSU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +16 TCU at home (+12 neutral court)     KU  +14 TCU at home (+10 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
TCU  +6 KSU on road (+10 neutral court)     TCU  +6 KSU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU   +1 TCU at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   -8 TCU at home (-12 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU  +14 TCU at home (+10 neutral court)

Fourteen of the seventeen comparisons favor Kansas, two favor TCU, with one being
a wash.  The average is 10.6 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to watch:  Guard Alex Robinson plays the most minutes, dishes the most
assists, and is their leading thief; forward Vladimir Brodziansky scores the
most points and blocks the most shots; guard Kenrich Williams grabs the most
rebounds, but also commits the most personal fouls; guard Jaylen Fisher commits
the most turnovers.  Last year, TCU's main guy was Karviar Shepherd; this year
he plays an average of just under 13 minutes per game; that makes him the team's
eighth man.  The difference Jamie Dixon has made!

So, the various prognostications range from a 17 point win (Seven Overtimes) to
a 10.5 point win (Dunkel).  The average is 12.5 points in favor of Kansas,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 81, TCU 68.

Rock Chalk!

And a closing quotation:
     
   "Things that are inevitable:  death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   #  3   #  8   #  3   #  3   +0.3    6.7   -0.04 +/- 0.17   -0.16 +/- 0.14
TCU            # 43   # 21   # 42   # 46   # 47   +0.9    8.0   -0.25 +/- 0.21   -0.26 +/- 0.14
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  1   #  8   #  3   #  6  #  1    #  9    #  3   # 16   #  1   #  9
TCU            # 44  # 36   # 43   # 20   # 49  # 38    # 39    # 59   # 32   # 56   # 33
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2   #  2   #  8   #  2   #  1   #  2   #  3   1.238   24-3     #     #   
TCU            # 40   # 40   # 41   # 56   # 56   # 41   # 40   0.900   17-10    #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  1  # 10    #  7  #  1    # 10  #  4    #  8  #  1    #  7  #  1    #  9  #  6
TCU            # 46  # 32    # 47  # 40    # 49  # 40    # 48  # 26    #116  # 29    # 44  # 34

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Indiana                     99 103    +6.84   -10.84
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.10    +1.90
HOME   #187 Siena                       86  65   +24.89    -3.89
HOME   #155 UAB                         83  63   +23.03    -3.03
HOME   # 50 Georgia                     65  54   +12.48    -1.48
HOME   #114 NC Asheville                95  57   +20.50   +17.50
HOME   #208 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.45    +3.55
HOME   # 85 Stanford                    89  74   +17.24    -2.24
HOME   #237 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.26   +14.74
HOME   # 78 Nebraska                    89  72   +16.40    +0.60
HOME   # 83 Davidson                    89  71   +17.13    +0.87
AWAY   #204 UNLV                        71  53   +20.29    -2.29
AWAY   # 42 TCU                         86  80    +5.45    +0.55
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                90  88   +10.26    -8.26
HOME   # 34 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.62    +6.38
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.23    +2.77
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma State              87  80    +7.42    -0.42
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.26    +3.74
HOME   # 59 Texas                       79  67   +14.03    -2.03
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               69  85    -5.32   -10.68
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                    79  73    -4.12   +10.12
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      73  68    +5.36    -0.36
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.34    -9.34
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                74  71    +4.18    -1.18
AWAY   # 34 Texas Tech                  80  79    +4.54    -3.54
HOME   #  2 West Virginia               84  80    +0.76    +3.24
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      67  65    -0.72    +2.72
HOME   # 42 TCU                                  +11.53             0.941
AWAY   # 59 Texas                                 +7.95             0.823
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                             +14.31             0.955
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma State                        +1.34             0.551

Here is TCU's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        St. Thomas (TX)             82  64
HOME   #337 Alabama State               98  62   +30.25    +5.75
HOME   #209 Jacksonville State          79  60   +18.12    +0.88
HOME   # 55 Illinois State              80  71    +5.15    +3.85
AWAY   #204 UNLV                        63  59   +11.80    -7.80
NEUT   #116 Washington                  93  80    +9.27    +3.73
HOME   #116 Washington                  86  71   +12.31    +2.69
HOME   #118 Arkansas State              77  54   +12.33   +10.67
AWAY   # 22 SMU                         59  74    -7.33    -7.67
HOME   #170 Wofford                     72  63   +15.65    -6.65
HOME   #199 Texas Southern              96  59   +17.61   +19.39
HOME   #228 Bradley                     74  42   +19.24   +12.76
HOME   #  8 Kansas                      80  86    -5.45    -0.55
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                    60  57    +5.82    -2.82
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               70  82   -13.81    +1.81
AWAY   # 59 Texas                       64  61    -0.54    +3.54
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                  84  77    -2.15    +9.15
AWAY   # 34 Texas Tech                  69  75    -3.95    -2.05
HOME   # 16 Baylor                      53  62    -3.13    -5.87
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma State              76  89    -7.15    -5.85
HOME   # 79 Auburn                      80  88    +7.94   -15.94
AWAY   # 33 Kansas State                86  80    -4.31   +10.31
HOME   # 59 Texas                       78  63    +5.54    +9.46
HOME   # 34 Texas Tech                  62  61    +2.13    -1.13
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      52  70    -9.21    -8.79
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma State              68  71    -1.07    -1.93
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                  71  84    -8.23    -4.77
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                               -11.53             0.059
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         -7.73             0.229
HOME   # 33 Kansas State                          +1.77             0.590
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                              -0.26             0.488