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Big 12 projection, Round 13

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8 months 14 hours ago #11441 by asteroid
As wild as Round 13 could have been, with all those one-possession game
projections, the projected standings did not change at all.
                
Round 14 ought to be considerably more tame, with only two games projected
to be one-possession affairs.  Obviously the key game of the round is
between the two front-runners.  Baylor has a 56 percent chance of winning.
If that were to happen, the projected wins would then be Kansas 14.24,
Baylor 12.54, or a 1.7 game lead for Kansas with 4 to play.  So Kansas
would remain in the driver's seat even if they lose.  (Of course, the
revised Sagarin Predictor ratings would change as well, tightening the
margin somewhat.)  However, if Kansas were to win on Saturday, we'd be
looking at projected wins of Kansas 15.24, Baylor 11.54, or a 3.7 game
lead with 4 to play.  In other words, it would take a meltdown of epic
proportions for Kansas to not win the conference championship if they
win in Waco on Saturday.  Baylor can certainly figure this out for
themselves, and I expect them to play like it.  Remember, Baylor still
has to play West Virginia (in Waco) and Iowa State (in Ames).

                      Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game  Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------  -----------
# 10  Kansas          14.52  14.05  14.53  13.65  13.93  14.15  14.68   11  2  @BU  (Sa)
# 14  Baylor          13.27  13.34  13.00  12.04  12.60  12.81  12.10    9  4   KU  (Sa)  BU  by  1.1
#  2  West Virginia   12.04  12.53  12.90  12.00  12.21  12.39  11.90    8  5   TT  (Sa)  WVU by 13.2
# 18  Iowa State      10.18  10.41   9.87  10.72  10.03  10.22  10.74    8  5   TCU (Sa)  ISU by  7.9
# 21  Oklahoma State   6.51   7.00   7.72   8.67   8.14   8.43   8.90    6  7   OU  (Sa)  OSU by 10.6
# 32  Kansas State     8.63   8.44   7.57   8.61   8.35   8.19   7.64    5  8  @UT  (Sa)  KSU by  0.6  RW
# 42  TCU              7.49   6.97   7.69   8.01   8.34   8.11   7.63    6  7  @ISU (Sa)
# 35  Texas Tech       7.10   7.04   6.50   6.79   6.46   6.22   6.91    5  8  @WVU (Sa)
# 58  Texas            4.65   5.03   5.69   5.27   5.94   5.68   5.26    4  9   KSU (Sa)
# 64  Oklahoma         5.61   5.19   4.53   4.24   4.00   3.80   4.24    3 10  @OSU (Sa)

My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 13.
ESPN's BPI was second, Sagarin third.  The BPI retains the season
lead, though perhaps should be disqualified for not participating the
entire season.  Sagarin is the season leader among those who made
prognostications the entire season.

Predictions                                                                                                   
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real
KU  ov WVU  0.1   3.0   0.8   5.5  -1.0   5.0   9.2  -0.2   2.4   2.3   8.0   2.9  -1.2  -0.7   1.7   9.0
ISU ov KSU  0.4  -3.0  -2.5  -4.5   2.0  -4.0  -3.7  -0.9  -2.5  -1.6  -5.0  -2.3   0.6   0.1   0.9  -9.0
OSU ov TCU  1.0   2.0   1.2  -1.5   6.5  -1.5  -3.2   1.3   0.1  -0.7   1.0  -1.4   1.3   0.7   3.4  -6.0
OU  ov UT   2.2   4.0   2.3   2.5   0.0   2.5   0.2   1.5   2.2   3.6   2.0   3.4   2.2   2.7   0.2   5.0
BU  ov TTU  3.2   6.0   4.3   2.5   6.0   2.5  11.0   3.4   5.0   2.7   5.0   3.1   3.6   3.1   3.6   1.0

  Reality  Er1or         1     1     1                             3     3           1           2
  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real
      4     3.9   1.0   3.2   1.5   5.0   1.0   5.2   4.2   1.6   1.7   4.0   1.1   5.2   4.7   2.3   5.0
      8     7.6  11.0  10.5  12.5   6.0  12.0  11.7   8.9  10.5   9.6  13.0  10.3   7.4   7.9   7.1  17.0
      3     2.0   1.0   1.8   4.5   3.5   4.5   6.2   1.7   2.9   3.7   2.0   4.4   1.7   2.3   0.4   9.0
      4     1.8   0.0   1.7   1.5   4.0   1.5   3.8   2.5   1.8   0.4   2.0   0.6   1.8   1.3   3.8   1.0
     -6     9.2  12.0  10.3   8.5  12.0   8.5  17.0   9.4  11.0   8.7  11.0   9.1   9.6   9.1   9.6   7.0

total      24.5  25.0  27.5  28.5  30.5  27.5  43.9  26.7  27.8  24.1  32.0  25.5  25.7  25.3  23.2  39.0
previous  398.0 420.0 408.1 412.5 509.5 405.0 504.2 414.3 421.0 195.9 449.0 424.4 426.7 429.6 450.2 147.0
cumulat   422.5 445.0 435.6 441.0 540.0 432.5 548.1 441.0 448.8 220.0 481.0 449.9 452.4 454.9 473.4 186.0
per game    6.5   6.8   6.7   6.8   8.3   6.7   8.4   6.8   6.9   6.3   7.4   6.9   7.0   7.0   7.3   7.4                                                                                                                                                                               

Three road wins were projected for Round 13, but only two of them
happened, thanks to Texas Tech defending the home court against
Baylor.  Only one road win is projected for Round 14, and it is by
no means certain.  Of course, we'd like to see a different road win
in Waco.

Road wins (26 out of 65)                Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
5 Kansas          TCU OU  ISU KSU TTU   1 Baylor          KSU                   +4 Kansas        
4 Baylor          OU  KSU TCU OSU       1 Kansas          ISU                   +3 Baylor        
4 Iowa State      OSU OU  KU  KSU       2 Iowa State      KU  WVU               +2 Iowa State    
4 Oklahoma State  TTU OU  WVU TCU       2 Texas           TCU WVU               +2 West Virginia 
4 West Virginia   OSU UT  ISU OU        2 Texas Tech      OSU KU                 0 Oklahoma State
2 Kansas State    OSU BU                2 West Virginia   OU  OSU               -1 TCU           
2 TCU             UT  KSU               3 TCU             KU  BU  OSU           -2 Kansas State  
1 Oklahoma        WVU                   4 Kansas State    BU  TCU KU  ISU       -2 Texas         
0 Texas                                 4 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU KSU BU        -2 Texas Tech    
0 Texas Tech                            5 Oklahoma        BU  KU  ISU OSU WVU   -4 Oklahoma      

The only trend that shows any statistical significance is for West Virginia.
I wonder if the press has been wearing them down over the course of the
season?  Recall how the performance value for West Virginia was up around
3 points at the start of conference play.  It has been steadily eroding.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +1.58    Kansas            6.78    
Oklahoma State  +1.24    Kansas State      7.82    
TCU             +0.91    Texas Tech        7.91    
Iowa State      +0.73    TCU               7.98    
Baylor          +0.55    Baylor            8.34    
Kansas State    +0.42    Oklahoma          9.93    
Kansas          +0.32    Texas            10.67    
Texas Tech      +0.29    Iowa State       11.86    
Oklahoma        -0.77    West Virginia    12.82    
Texas           -0.82    Oklahoma State   13.21    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.25 +/- 0.28    Texas           +0.18 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State  +0.22 +/- 0.37    Kansas State    +0.16 +/- 0.12
Kansas State    -0.06 +/- 0.21    Baylor          +0.14 +/- 0.16
Kansas          -0.07 +/- 0.18    Oklahoma State  +0.01 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech      -0.07 +/- 0.21    Oklahoma        -0.08 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma        -0.09 +/- 0.28    Texas Tech      -0.09 +/- 0.12
Baylor          -0.18 +/- 0.23    West Virginia   -0.10 +/- 0.20
TCU             -0.22 +/- 0.22    Kansas          -0.17 +/- 0.14
Iowa State      -0.29 +/- 0.33    Iowa State      -0.18 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   -0.51 +/- 0.33    TCU             -0.25 +/- 0.14

The top 5 strengths of schedule are in the Big 12.  Will Kansas pass Baylor
in strength of schedule by virtue of playing on the road this Saturday?

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
West Virginia   85.12   Baylor          63.08   Oklahoma State  162.00   West Virginia   +18.00   
Oklahoma State  85.00   Texas Tech      67.00   Kansas          155.92   Kansas           +9.85   
Kansas          82.88   West Virginia   67.12   West Virginia   152.23   Iowa State       +9.56   
Iowa State      80.36   Kansas State    67.77   Iowa State      151.16   Baylor           +9.08   
Texas Tech      74.69   TCU             69.32   Oklahoma        148.20   Oklahoma State   +8.00   
TCU             73.72   Texas           69.54   TCU             143.04   Texas Tech       +7.69   
Kansas State    73.69   Iowa State      70.80   Texas Tech      141.69   Kansas State     +5.92   
Oklahoma        72.88   Kansas          73.04   Kansas State    141.46   TCU              +4.40   
Baylor          72.16   Oklahoma        75.32   Texas           138.00   Texas            -1.08   
Texas           68.46   Oklahoma State  77.00   Baylor          135.24   Oklahoma         -2.44   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State  82.16 ( 1)
Oklahoma        82.09 ( 2)
Baylor          81.53 ( 3)
Kansas          81.21 ( 4)
Texas           81.14 ( 5)
Iowa State      80.85 (10)
TCU             79.08 (26)
Kansas State    78.68 (32)
West Virginia   77.90 (44)
Texas Tech      76.34 (65)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Wheatstate Gal, jaythawk1

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7 months 4 weeks ago #11451 by NotOstertag
Thanks as always Asteroid. My non-scientific prediction is that since both teams know what's at stake, both will be ready to leave it all on the court. Based on our wins in big-time games (particularly @Kentucky) I think we have what it takes to win, but it won't be easy. Hoping our thin line of bigs can stay in the game.

The big intangible in my mind is that I really do believe that Bill Self has taken up residence inside Scot Drew's head for several years and holds a very real advantage there. Bill is the better game coach, and more importantly Drew knows it and it drives him crazy. Look at both of them when things aren't going well in any KU/BU game. Self will be clearly angry at the team for not executing the plan he's put in place because he knows that his plan, if properly executed, will prevail. Drew, on the other hand, seems to give off the appearance of total exasperation that no matter what he tries, those dang Jayhawks always have an answer.

Also, in post game comments, Self can offer "explanations" that seem to involve taking ownership (by him and/or by players) for mistakes. Drew seems to offer "excuses" on why things didn't go his way.

Of course, I'm completely biased, but it just seems that Drew has an innate defensiveness when it comes to KU.

This one goes to 11 12 13!

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7 months 4 weeks ago #11457 by Freestate69
Advantages the Jayhawks have against Baylor (in addition to HCBS inside Drew's tiny/whiny head):
1) Bill knows how to game plan a zone
2) JJ has become dynamite as the high post inside the zone - best since Mario Little

Will they hit shots against the very long Bears?

"Be on your guard. There are older and fouler things than orcs in the deep places of the earth." - Gandalf on passing through Columbia, MO

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7 months 4 weeks ago - 7 months 4 weeks ago #11458 by Bayhawk
Today's Phrase that Pays!! :P

"Drew's tiny/whiny head"

Thanks Freestate,

RC

The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet
Last Edit: 7 months 4 weeks ago by Bayhawk.

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