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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 13
- asteroid
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7 years 2 months ago #11441
by asteroid
As wild as Round 13 could have been, with all those one-possession game
projections, the projected standings did not change at all.
Round 14 ought to be considerably more tame, with only two games projected
to be one-possession affairs. Obviously the key game of the round is
between the two front-runners. Baylor has a 56 percent chance of winning.
If that were to happen, the projected wins would then be Kansas 14.24,
Baylor 12.54, or a 1.7 game lead for Kansas with 4 to play. So Kansas
would remain in the driver's seat even if they lose. (Of course, the
revised Sagarin Predictor ratings would change as well, tightening the
margin somewhat.) However, if Kansas were to win on Saturday, we'd be
looking at projected wins of Kansas 15.24, Baylor 11.54, or a 3.7 game
lead with 4 to play. In other words, it would take a meltdown of epic
proportions for Kansas to not win the conference championship if they
win in Waco on Saturday. Baylor can certainly figure this out for
themselves, and I expect them to play like it. Remember, Baylor still
has to play West Virginia (in Waco) and Iowa State (in Ames).
Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9 Rd 10 Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 10 Kansas 14.52 14.05 14.53 13.65 13.93 14.15 14.68 11 2 @BU (Sa)
# 14 Baylor 13.27 13.34 13.00 12.04 12.60 12.81 12.10 9 4 KU (Sa) BU by 1.1
# 2 West Virginia 12.04 12.53 12.90 12.00 12.21 12.39 11.90 8 5 TT (Sa) WVU by 13.2
# 18 Iowa State 10.18 10.41 9.87 10.72 10.03 10.22 10.74 8 5 TCU (Sa) ISU by 7.9
# 21 Oklahoma State 6.51 7.00 7.72 8.67 8.14 8.43 8.90 6 7 OU (Sa) OSU by 10.6
# 32 Kansas State 8.63 8.44 7.57 8.61 8.35 8.19 7.64 5 8 @UT (Sa) KSU by 0.6 RW
# 42 TCU 7.49 6.97 7.69 8.01 8.34 8.11 7.63 6 7 @ISU (Sa)
# 35 Texas Tech 7.10 7.04 6.50 6.79 6.46 6.22 6.91 5 8 @WVU (Sa)
# 58 Texas 4.65 5.03 5.69 5.27 5.94 5.68 5.26 4 9 KSU (Sa)
# 64 Oklahoma 5.61 5.19 4.53 4.24 4.00 3.80 4.24 3 10 @OSU (Sa)
My trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in Round 13.
ESPN's BPI was second, Sagarin third. The BPI retains the season
lead, though perhaps should be disqualified for not participating the
entire season. Sagarin is the season leader among those who made
prognostications the entire season.
Predictions
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
KU ov WVU 0.1 3.0 0.8 5.5 -1.0 5.0 9.2 -0.2 2.4 2.3 8.0 2.9 -1.2 -0.7 1.7 9.0
ISU ov KSU 0.4 -3.0 -2.5 -4.5 2.0 -4.0 -3.7 -0.9 -2.5 -1.6 -5.0 -2.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 -9.0
OSU ov TCU 1.0 2.0 1.2 -1.5 6.5 -1.5 -3.2 1.3 0.1 -0.7 1.0 -1.4 1.3 0.7 3.4 -6.0
OU ov UT 2.2 4.0 2.3 2.5 0.0 2.5 0.2 1.5 2.2 3.6 2.0 3.4 2.2 2.7 0.2 5.0
BU ov TTU 3.2 6.0 4.3 2.5 6.0 2.5 11.0 3.4 5.0 2.7 5.0 3.1 3.6 3.1 3.6 1.0
Reality Er1or 1 1 1 3 3 1 2
------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
4 3.9 1.0 3.2 1.5 5.0 1.0 5.2 4.2 1.6 1.7 4.0 1.1 5.2 4.7 2.3 5.0
8 7.6 11.0 10.5 12.5 6.0 12.0 11.7 8.9 10.5 9.6 13.0 10.3 7.4 7.9 7.1 17.0
3 2.0 1.0 1.8 4.5 3.5 4.5 6.2 1.7 2.9 3.7 2.0 4.4 1.7 2.3 0.4 9.0
4 1.8 0.0 1.7 1.5 4.0 1.5 3.8 2.5 1.8 0.4 2.0 0.6 1.8 1.3 3.8 1.0
-6 9.2 12.0 10.3 8.5 12.0 8.5 17.0 9.4 11.0 8.7 11.0 9.1 9.6 9.1 9.6 7.0
total 24.5 25.0 27.5 28.5 30.5 27.5 43.9 26.7 27.8 24.1 32.0 25.5 25.7 25.3 23.2 39.0
previous 398.0 420.0 408.1 412.5 509.5 405.0 504.2 414.3 421.0 195.9 449.0 424.4 426.7 429.6 450.2 147.0
cumulat 422.5 445.0 435.6 441.0 540.0 432.5 548.1 441.0 448.8 220.0 481.0 449.9 452.4 454.9 473.4 186.0
per game 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.8 8.3 6.7 8.4 6.8 6.9 6.3 7.4 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3 7.4
Three road wins were projected for Round 13, but only two of them
happened, thanks to Texas Tech defending the home court against
Baylor. Only one road win is projected for Round 14, and it is by
no means certain. Of course, we'd like to see a different road win
in Waco.
Road wins (26 out of 65) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- --------------------
5 Kansas TCU OU ISU KSU TTU 1 Baylor KSU +4 Kansas
4 Baylor OU KSU TCU OSU 1 Kansas ISU +3 Baylor
4 Iowa State OSU OU KU KSU 2 Iowa State KU WVU +2 Iowa State
4 Oklahoma State TTU OU WVU TCU 2 Texas TCU WVU +2 West Virginia
4 West Virginia OSU UT ISU OU 2 Texas Tech OSU KU 0 Oklahoma State
2 Kansas State OSU BU 2 West Virginia OU OSU -1 TCU
2 TCU UT KSU 3 TCU KU BU OSU -2 Kansas State
1 Oklahoma WVU 4 Kansas State BU TCU KU ISU -2 Texas
0 Texas 4 Oklahoma State WVU ISU KSU BU -2 Texas Tech
0 Texas Tech 5 Oklahoma BU KU ISU OSU WVU -4 Oklahoma
The only trend that shows any statistical significance is for West Virginia.
I wonder if the press has been wearing them down over the course of the
season? Recall how the performance value for West Virginia was up around
3 points at the start of conference play. It has been steadily eroding.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia +1.58 Kansas 6.78
Oklahoma State +1.24 Kansas State 7.82
TCU +0.91 Texas Tech 7.91
Iowa State +0.73 TCU 7.98
Baylor +0.55 Baylor 8.34
Kansas State +0.42 Oklahoma 9.93
Kansas +0.32 Texas 10.67
Texas Tech +0.29 Iowa State 11.86
Oklahoma -0.77 West Virginia 12.82
Texas -0.82 Oklahoma State 13.21
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Texas +0.25 +/- 0.28 Texas +0.18 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State +0.22 +/- 0.37 Kansas State +0.16 +/- 0.12
Kansas State -0.06 +/- 0.21 Baylor +0.14 +/- 0.16
Kansas -0.07 +/- 0.18 Oklahoma State +0.01 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech -0.07 +/- 0.21 Oklahoma -0.08 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma -0.09 +/- 0.28 Texas Tech -0.09 +/- 0.12
Baylor -0.18 +/- 0.23 West Virginia -0.10 +/- 0.20
TCU -0.22 +/- 0.22 Kansas -0.17 +/- 0.14
Iowa State -0.29 +/- 0.33 Iowa State -0.18 +/- 0.19
West Virginia -0.51 +/- 0.33 TCU -0.25 +/- 0.14
The top 5 strengths of schedule are in the Big 12. Will Kansas pass Baylor
in strength of schedule by virtue of playing on the road this Saturday?
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia 85.12 Baylor 63.08 Oklahoma State 162.00 West Virginia +18.00
Oklahoma State 85.00 Texas Tech 67.00 Kansas 155.92 Kansas +9.85
Kansas 82.88 West Virginia 67.12 West Virginia 152.23 Iowa State +9.56
Iowa State 80.36 Kansas State 67.77 Iowa State 151.16 Baylor +9.08
Texas Tech 74.69 TCU 69.32 Oklahoma 148.20 Oklahoma State +8.00
TCU 73.72 Texas 69.54 TCU 143.04 Texas Tech +7.69
Kansas State 73.69 Iowa State 70.80 Texas Tech 141.69 Kansas State +5.92
Oklahoma 72.88 Kansas 73.04 Kansas State 141.46 TCU +4.40
Baylor 72.16 Oklahoma 75.32 Texas 138.00 Texas -1.08
Texas 68.46 Oklahoma State 77.00 Baylor 135.24 Oklahoma -2.44
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State 82.16 ( 1)
Oklahoma 82.09 ( 2)
Baylor 81.53 ( 3)
Kansas 81.21 ( 4)
Texas 81.14 ( 5)
Iowa State 80.85 (10)
TCU 79.08 (26)
Kansas State 78.68 (32)
West Virginia 77.90 (44)
Texas Tech 76.34 (65)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Wheatstate Gal, jaythawk1
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- NotOstertag
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7 years 2 months ago #11451
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Thanks as always Asteroid. My non-scientific prediction is that since both teams know what's at stake, both will be ready to leave it all on the court. Based on our wins in big-time games (particularly @Kentucky) I think we have what it takes to win, but it won't be easy. Hoping our thin line of bigs can stay in the game.
The big intangible in my mind is that I really do believe that Bill Self has taken up residence inside Scot Drew's head for several years and holds a very real advantage there. Bill is the better game coach, and more importantly Drew knows it and it drives him crazy. Look at both of them when things aren't going well in any KU/BU game. Self will be clearly angry at the team for not executing the plan he's put in place because he knows that his plan, if properly executed, will prevail. Drew, on the other hand, seems to give off the appearance of total exasperation that no matter what he tries, those dang Jayhawks always have an answer.
Also, in post game comments, Self can offer "explanations" that seem to involve taking ownership (by him and/or by players) for mistakes. Drew seems to offer "excuses" on why things didn't go his way.
Of course, I'm completely biased, but it just seems that Drew has an innate defensiveness when it comes to KU.
The big intangible in my mind is that I really do believe that Bill Self has taken up residence inside Scot Drew's head for several years and holds a very real advantage there. Bill is the better game coach, and more importantly Drew knows it and it drives him crazy. Look at both of them when things aren't going well in any KU/BU game. Self will be clearly angry at the team for not executing the plan he's put in place because he knows that his plan, if properly executed, will prevail. Drew, on the other hand, seems to give off the appearance of total exasperation that no matter what he tries, those dang Jayhawks always have an answer.
Also, in post game comments, Self can offer "explanations" that seem to involve taking ownership (by him and/or by players) for mistakes. Drew seems to offer "excuses" on why things didn't go his way.
Of course, I'm completely biased, but it just seems that Drew has an innate defensiveness when it comes to KU.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- Freestate69
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7 years 2 months ago #11457
by Freestate69
"Be on your guard. There are older and fouler things than orcs in the deep places of the earth." - Gandalf on passing through Columbia, MO
Advantages the Jayhawks have against Baylor (in addition to HCBS inside Drew's tiny/whiny head):
1) Bill knows how to game plan a zone
2) JJ has become dynamite as the high post inside the zone - best since Mario Little
Will they hit shots against the very long Bears?
1) Bill knows how to game plan a zone
2) JJ has become dynamite as the high post inside the zone - best since Mario Little
Will they hit shots against the very long Bears?
"Be on your guard. There are older and fouler things than orcs in the deep places of the earth." - Gandalf on passing through Columbia, MO
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- Bayhawk
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7 years 2 months ago - 7 years 2 months ago #11458
by Bayhawk
The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet
Today's Phrase that Pays!! 
"Drew's tiny/whiny head"
Thanks Freestate,
RC
"Drew's tiny/whiny head"
Thanks Freestate,
RC
The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet
Last Edit: 7 years 2 months ago by Bayhawk.
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