predictions for West Virginia game

I'm sure Yoda's advice to the Jayhawks would be "Win.  There is no try."  But
a lot could depend on just how much Frank Mason has recovered from last week's
flu bug.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech has been tough at home, so Baylor could very well
pick up a loss in Lubbock during today's early game.  Today's action has
serious implications for the conference championship.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 0.14 point margin, with a 50.5 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 153.7 points, so the suggested "final"
score is Kansas 77, West Virginia 77, or in other words, overtime.  Kansas has
played an average of 0.32 points above expectation, while West Virginia has
played an average of 1.68 points above expectation, the difference being large
enough to flip the sign in favor of West Virginia by 1.22 points.  However, it
should be noted that most of West Virginia's above-expectation performance was
earned in the non-conference portion of the regular season.  When we look at
the common opponents below, we'll see that Kansas has the advantage, barely.
Whereas the last two games have featured opponents who play nearly as
consistently as Kansas does, West Virginia is the conference's second-least
consistent team (only Oklahoma State is less consistent).  Still, with such a
tight margin, it doesn't matter too much.  Kansas has played 12 of its 25
games below expectation by more than 0.14 points, corresponding to a 48 percent
chance of losing the game.  Meanwhile, West Virginia has played 12 of its 25
games above expectation by more than 0.14 points, corresponding to a 48 percent
chance of winning the game.  And those, of course, average to a 48 percent
chance of Kansas losing, only slightly more optimistic than the 49.5 percent
chance of losing derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  I did want to
point out, however, that Kansas has not played more than three games in a row
with below expectation performances.  It happened early in the season against
Siena, UAB, and Georgia, and it just happened again against ISU, KSU, and Tech,
so an above-expectation performance would guarantee a win today.  Both teams
have negative trends, but while the trend for Kansas is not statistically
significant, the negative trend for West Virginia is.  However, both teams
also have negative mental toughness ratings, and while the value for West
Virginia is not statistically significant, the negative value for Kansas is.
But the trend statistic trumps the mental toughness statistic, and taken at
face value, the margin for Kansas would be 1.70 points.  Curiously, if you
look at the other Sagarin rating methods, Overall gives Kansas a 1.21 point
margin, Golden Mean gives Kansas a 2.36 point margin, and Recent gives Kansas
a 2.76 point margin.  Yet his new "offense-defense" method favors West Virginia
by 1.43 points, with a final score of Kansas 80, West Virginia 82!  Go figure.
Maybe Sagarin has started looking at average performance versus expectation,
where, as I noted above, West Virginia has a 1.22 point margin, though it's
unclear why Sagarin also thinks the point total would increase to 162.

Massey gives Kansas a 3.0 point margin, with a 58 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 83, West Virginia 80.
Interestingly, another high point total.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 1.5 units, but West
Virginia has the better adjusted defense by 4.7 units, which would make the
Mountaineers the favorite on a neutral court.  The average adjusted tempo is
70.7 possessions, which would make the margin 2.26 points in favor of West
Virginia on a neutral court.  However, after adding the home court advantage,
which Sagarin currently has at 3.03 points, the margin becomes 0.77 points in
favor of Kansas.  The "final" score would then be Kansas 76, West Virginia 76,
once again implying overtime, with the rounding working against the Jayhawks
in this case, considering how the margin is closer to 1 point than it is to 0.

Greenfield gives Kansas a whopping 5.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final
score of Kansas 80.5 (you pick the rounding), West Virginia 80.  Among the key
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just two of the eight categories,
namely total rebounds per game and effective field goal percentage.  Among the
key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three of the seven
categories, namely holding opponents to a lower effective field goal percentage,
grabbing more defensive rebounds per game, and committing fewer personal fouls
per game.

Dunkel makes Kansas a 1.0 point underdog, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
5 points in favor of Kansas, so he is obviously picking West Virginia both in
the game and against the spread.  His reasoning appears to be based on Kansas
being 0-4 against the spread in its last 4 home games.  I would dispute that,
based on the Sagarin ratings.  Kansas beat the spread (marginally) against both
Oklahoma State and Baylor.  And the law of averages suggests that beating the
spread will happen sooner or later.  Above I noted that Kansas hasn't played
more than three consecutive games below expectation as justification for playing
above expectation today.  Anyway, Dunkel's total points is 146, suggesting a
final score of Kansas 72.5, West Virginia 73.5 (you pick the roundings), while
the Vegas total is 158.5, suggesting a final score of Kansas 82, West Virginia 77.
I'll take that.

Real Time gives Kansas a 9.0 point margin, with a 68.7 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 87, West Virginia 78.  Except
on the schedule page, where I assume a rounding difference made it a 10 point
margin with a final score of Kansas 87, West Virginia 77.  Why is it so hard
for Real Time to be internally consistent?  By the way, Real Time has Baylor
over Texas Tech by a single point.

Collegiate Basketball News still has Baylor at #1 in the RPI, with Villanova
still at #2.  Kansas remained in the #3 slot.  Oklahoma State is still third
in the Big 12 at #29, while West Virginia is #30.  TCU is #36, Kansas State is
#42, with Iowa State at #55.  Those are all good enough to be dancing next month.

Dolphin makes Kansas a 0.21 point underdog with a 49.3 percent probability of
winning, and a "final" score of Kansas 79, West Virginia 79, or once again,
overtime.  But look at the various Dolphin ratings in the table below.  Kansas
is well ahead of West Virginia in all but the Predictive rating, which just
happens to be the one he uses to compute game predictions.

Don Davis' January 26 email makes Kansas a 2.4 point underdog, with a 37.2 percent
probability of winning and a final score of Kansas 76, West Virginia 78.  But that
email was produced right after the loss to West Virginia in Morgantown, and before
the win over Kentucky in Lexington, so the prediction is out of date.  Don, I need
an update!

Colley gives Kansas a 9.2 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 2.4 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.0 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 2.3 point margin, with a 58.0 percent
probability of winning.  Note that the BPI has earned honors for best
prognostications in three of the last six rounds.  It's also picking Baylor
by 2.7 points over Texas Tech.  Once again, the Big 12 games are at the top
of the list in terms of "Matchup Quality".

Although the LRMC web site is accessible, the rankings tables have disappeared.
I've left the previous rankings for Kansas in the table below, but have left
the rankings for West Virginia blank.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin with an 86 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 81, West Virginia 73.
I'll take that.  Then again, Sever Overtimes isn't doing too well with its
prognostications, despite having earned honors for best prognostications in
three of the twelve rounds played so far.  That tells me they look good when a
wild, unorthodox prediction happens to occur, but those don't happen often enough.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 2.9 point margin.

There are nine common opponents, eight in conference plus UMKC, three of which
Kansas has played twice (Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech), and three of
which West Virginia has played twice (Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State),
plus the head-to-head in Morgantown, giving us fifteen scores to compare
(because I'll use only the home-home and road-road permutations for the
Kansas State games, whom both have played twice):

KU  +43 KC  at home (+39 neutral court)
WVU +45 KC  at home (+41 neutral court)
KU   +2 WVU at home ( -2 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)     KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
WVU +17 OSU on road (+21 neutral court)     WVU  -7 OSU at home (-11 neutral court)
KU  -14 WVU at home (-18 neutral court)     KU  +18 WVU at home (+14 neutral court)

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)     KU   +1 TTU on road ( +5 neutral court)
WVU  -1 TTU on road ( +3 neutral court)     WVU  -1 TTU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU  +14 WVU at home (+10 neutral court)     KU   +6 WVU at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
TCU +12 TCU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU   +6 WVU at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)
WVU +21 BU  at home (+17 neutral court)
KU  -12 WVU at home (-16 neutral court)

KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
WVU  +2 UT  on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU   +6 WVU at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)     KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
WVU  -2 OU  at home ( -6 neutral court)     WVU +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
KU  +25 WVU at home (+21 neutral court)     KU   +4 WVU at home (  0 neutral court)

KU   +3 KSU on road ( +7 neutral court)     KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -4 KSU on road (  0 neutral court)     WVU +19 KSU at home (+15 neutral court)
KU  +11 WVU at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU  -15 WVU at home (-17 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
WVU +13 ISU on road (+17 neutral court)     WVU +13 ISU on road (+17 neutral court)
KU   -5 WVU at home ( -9 neutral court)     KU  -20 WVU at home (-24 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)
KU   -8 WVU at home (-12 neutral court)

Nine of the fifteen comparisons favor Kansas, but the average is only
1.2 points in favor of Kansas, a little more than the Sagarin margin.

Last time I discussed why the common opponents comparison assumes a 4 point
home court advantage when Sagarin has it down at 3 points.  I went on to
note that the home court advantage had been essentially nonexistent in the
Big 12 so far this season.  Well, action in Round 12 increased the home
court advantage to 4.5 points, back to being a little more than the national
average, as in past seasons.  It's still early in the second round of
conference games, however, with only 15 of the 45 pairs of games played that
we'll eventually have included in the final computation.  Things will change.
But for now, I intend to stick with a 4 point home court advantage in the
common opponents comparison.

Players to watch:  Guard Jevon Carter plays the most minutes, scores the
most points, dishes the most assists, and is their leading thief, but he
also commits the most turnovers and the most personal fouls; forward
Nathan Adrian grabs the most rebounds; forward Sagaba Konate blocks the
most shots.  The key to the game would appear to be Carter; control him,
and you control the game.

So, the various prognostications range from a 9.2 point win (Colley) to a
1.4 point loss (Sagarin offense-defense method), not counting Don Davis'
out-of-date prediction.  The average is 2.13 points in favor of Kansas,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 78, West Virginia 76.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  8   #  7   #  9   #  4   #  4   +0.3    6.8   -0.10 +/- 0.19   -0.21 +/- 0.14
West Virginia  #  2   # 52   #  2   #  3   #  3   +1.7   13.0   -0.53 +/- 0.35   -0.09 +/- 0.21
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  1   #  9   #  8   #  8  #  2    #  6    #  3   # 27   #  3   # 23
West Virginia  # 10  # 24   #  4   # 52   #  2  # 12    #  9    # 15   # 82   # 30   # 96
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3   #  3   # 10   #  3   #  3   #  2   #  3   1.150   22-3     #     #   
West Virginia  # 18   # 17   #  3   # 25   # 29   # 17   # 14   1.096   20-5     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  # 18    #  8  #  3    # 10  # 10    #  9  #  2    #  3  #  1    # 11  # 14
West Virginia  # 24  # 64    #  6  # 54    #  3  # 50    #     #       # 15  # 57    #  4  # 46

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 30 Indiana                     99 103    +6.31   -10.31
NEUT   # 10 Duke                        77  75    +0.04    +1.96
HOME   #182 Siena                       86  65   +24.42    -3.42
HOME   #144 UAB                         83  63   +21.82    -1.82
HOME   # 51 Georgia                     65  54   +12.39    -1.39
HOME   #126 NC Asheville                95  57   +20.83   +17.17
HOME   #214 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.81    +3.19
HOME   # 86 Stanford                    89  74   +17.14    -2.14
HOME   #243 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +28.10   +14.90
HOME   # 81 Nebraska                    89  72   +16.87    +0.13
HOME   # 83 Davidson                    89  71   +16.95    +1.05
AWAY   #206 UNLV                        71  53   +19.98    -1.98
AWAY   # 39 TCU                         86  80    +4.93    +1.07
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                90  88    +9.88    -7.88
HOME   # 37 Texas Tech                  85  68   +10.73    +6.27
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.49    +2.51
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma State              87  80    +6.98    +0.02
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.38    +3.62
HOME   # 58 Texas                       79  67   +13.69    -1.69
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia               69  85    -5.92   -10.08
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                    79  73    -4.32   +10.32
HOME   # 12 Baylor                      73  68    +4.46    +0.54
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.44    -9.44
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                74  71    +3.82    -0.82
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                  80  79    +4.67    -3.67
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         +0.14             0.505
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.60             0.416
HOME   # 39 TCU                                  +10.99             0.929
AWAY   # 58 Texas                                 +7.63             0.800
HOME   # 64 Oklahoma                             +14.55             0.955
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma State                        +0.92             0.534

Here is West Virginia's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #216 Mount St. Mary's            87  59   +29.87    -1.87
HOME   #342 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)     107  66   +42.98    -1.98
HOME   #193 New Hampshire              100  41   +28.11   +30.89
NEUT   # 75 Illinois                    89  57   +15.71   +16.29
NEUT   # 94 Temple                      77  81   +17.54   -21.54
HOME   #280 Manhattan                  108  61   +33.65   +13.35
AWAY   #  4 Virginia                    66  57    -1.71   +10.71
HOME   #330 Western Carolina            90  37   +39.80   +13.20
HOME   #316 VMI                         90  55   +37.24    -2.24
HOME   #243 Kansas City(UMKC)          112  67   +30.99   +14.01
HOME   #293 Radford                     84  57   +34.57    -7.57
HOME   #157 Northern Kentucky           92  61   +25.89    +5.11
AWAY   # 23 Oklahoma State              92  75    +3.81   +13.19
AWAY   # 37 Texas Tech                  76  77    +7.56    -8.56
HOME   # 39 TCU                         82  70   +13.88    -1.88
HOME   # 12 Baylor                      89  68    +7.35   +13.65
AWAY   # 58 Texas                       74  72   +10.52    -8.52
HOME   # 64 Oklahoma                    87  89   +17.44   -19.44
AWAY   # 32 Kansas State                75  79    +6.71   -10.71
HOME   #  9 Kansas                      85  69    +5.92   +10.08
HOME   # 60 Texas A&M                   81  77   +16.83   -12.83
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  85  72    +3.27    +9.73
HOME   # 23 Oklahoma State              75  82    +9.87   -16.87
AWAY   # 64 Oklahoma                    61  50   +11.38    -0.38
HOME   # 32 Kansas State                85  66   +12.77    +6.23
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                                -0.14             0.495
HOME   # 37 Texas Tech                           +13.62             0.897
HOME   # 58 Texas                                +16.58             0.917
AWAY   # 39 TCU                                   +7.82             0.765
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                +1.29             0.547
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            +9.33             0.772