Big 12 projection, Round 12

As projected, Round 12 simply undid the changes introduced by Round 11.
Oklahoma State got the expected home win over Texas, while Kansas State
and TCU both lost to contenders, so the Cowboys moved right back into
the upper division, with Kansas State and TCU sliding down a spot.
                
Round 13 is going to be wild.  All five games are projected to be
one-possession affairs.  Three are toss-up games.

                      Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  9  Kansas          14.52  14.52  14.05  14.53  13.65  13.93  14.15   10  2   WVU (Mo)   KU  by  0.2
# 13  Baylor          12.68  13.27  13.34  13.00  12.04  12.60  12.81    9  3  @TTU (Mo)   BU  by  3.2  RW
#  2  West Virginia   12.95  12.04  12.53  12.90  12.00  12.21  12.39    8  4  @KU  (Mo)
# 20  Iowa State       9.79  10.18  10.41   9.87  10.72  10.03  10.22    7  5  @KSU (We)   ISU by  0.4  RW
# 22  Oklahoma State   5.52   6.51   7.00   7.72   8.67   8.14   8.43    5  7  @TCU (We)   OSU by  0.4  RW
# 32  Kansas State     7.62   8.63   8.44   7.57   8.61   8.35   8.19    5  7   ISU (We)
# 39  TCU              8.13   7.49   6.97   7.69   8.01   8.34   8.11    6  6   OSU (We)
# 37  Texas Tech       8.14   7.10   7.04   6.50   6.79   6.46   6.22    4  8   BU  (Mo)
# 58  Texas            4.64   4.65   5.03   5.69   5.27   5.94   5.68    4  8  @OU  (Tu)
# 63  Oklahoma         6.01   5.61   5.19   4.53   4.24   4.00   3.80    2 10   UT  (Tu)   OU  by  2.3

For the third time, ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in
Round 12.  That's especially remarkable, because this season's BPI didn't
make its debut until after six rounds had already been played, which
means the BPI has won half of the rounds that have occurred since then.
And that was enough for the BPI to move into the season lead over Sagarin,
though perhaps the BPI should be disqualified for the season crown due to
incomplete participation.  The best they can do is contribute to two-thirds
of the conference games.  Another surprise is how badly Dunkel is doing,
considering how long he's been in the business.

Predictions                                                                                                   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real
KU  ov TTU   5.0   6.0   4.0   4.5   6.5   4.0   9.2   4.5   5.4   3.9   2.0   2.7   5.0   4.5   6.1   1.0
BU  ov TCU   8.9  10.0   9.4   8.5   0.0   8.5  12.3   7.9   9.8  10.9   9.0   9.6   8.4   8.9   7.9  14.0
OSU ov UT    9.4  11.0  11.3  11.0   3.0  12.5  12.5  10.3   9.7  11.6   9.0  12.9  11.6  12.1  10.4  19.0
ISU ov OU   10.8   9.0   9.8   9.0   0.0   9.5  13.0  10.4   9.6  13.6   4.0  13.3  12.3  12.9   9.7  24.0
WVU ov KSU  12.3   7.0   9.4   9.5   1.0  10.0   6.1  10.7   8.8  15.6   6.0  11.0  13.4  14.0   6.8  16.0

  Reality  Er1or         1     1     1                             3     3           1           1
  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  Real
      1     4.0   5.0   3.0   3.5   5.5   3.0   8.2   3.5   4.4   2.9   1.0   1.7   4.0   3.5   5.1   0.0
     18     9.1   8.0   8.6   9.5  18.0   9.5   5.7  10.1   8.2   7.1   9.0   8.4   9.6   9.1  10.1   4.0
     13     3.6   2.0   1.7   2.0  10.0   0.5   0.5   2.7   3.3   1.4   4.0   0.1   1.4   0.9   2.6   6.0
     16     5.2   7.0   6.2   7.0  16.0   6.5   3.0   5.6   6.4   2.4  12.0   2.7   3.7   3.1   6.3   8.0
     19     6.7  12.0   9.6   9.5  18.0   9.0  12.9   8.3  10.2   3.4  13.0   8.0   5.6   5.0  12.2   3.0

total      28.6  34.0  29.1  31.5  67.5  28.5  30.3  30.2  32.5  17.2  39.0  20.9  24.3  21.6  36.3  21.0
prev      369.4 386.0 379.0 381.0 442.0 376.5 473.9 384.1 388.5 178.7 410.0 403.5 402.4 408.0 413.9 126.0
cumu      398.0 420.0 408.1 412.5 509.5 405.0 504.2 414.3 421.0 195.9 449.0 424.4 426.7 429.6 450.2 147.0
per game    6.6   7.0   6.8   6.9   8.5   6.8   8.4   6.9   7.0   6.5   7.5   7.1   7.1   7.2   7.5   7.4

Only one road win was projected for Round 12, and it happened.
No others occurred.  Three road wins are projected for Round 13,
but they're all one-possession games, so lots of uncertainty
over what will really happen.  We're four road wins ahead of the
long-term average of one in three.

Road wins (24 out of 60)                Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
5 Kansas          TCU OU  ISU KSU TTU   1 Baylor          KSU                   +4 Kansas        
4 Baylor          OU  KSU TCU OSU       1 Kansas          ISU                   +3 Baylor        
4 West Virginia   OSU UT  ISU OU        2 Iowa State      KU  WVU               +2 West Virginia 
3 Iowa State      OSU OU  KU            2 TCU             KU  BU                +1 Iowa State    
3 Oklahoma State  TTU OU  WVU           2 Texas           TCU WVU                0 TCU           
2 Kansas State    OSU BU                2 Texas Tech      OSU KU                -1 Kansas State  
2 TCU             UT  KSU               2 West Virginia   OU  OSU               -1 Oklahoma State
1 Oklahoma        WVU                   3 Kansas State    BU  TCU KU            -2 Texas         
0 Texas                                 4 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU KSU BU        -2 Texas Tech    
0 Texas Tech                            5 Oklahoma        BU  KU  ISU OSU WVU   -4 Oklahoma      

The inconsistency for Kansas increased by a mere 0.02 points.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +1.68    Kansas            6.73    
Oklahoma State  +1.27    Kansas State      7.75    
TCU             +0.98    Texas Tech        7.88    
Iowa State      +0.69    TCU               8.11    
Baylor          +0.64    Baylor            8.32    
Kansas State    +0.50    Oklahoma         10.06    
Kansas          +0.32    Texas            10.89    
Texas Tech      +0.27    Iowa State       11.99    
Oklahoma        -0.82    West Virginia    13.06    
Texas           -0.86    Oklahoma State   13.46    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.30 +/- 0.30    Texas           +0.18 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  +0.24 +/- 0.40    Baylor          +0.17 +/- 0.15
Kansas State    +0.02 +/- 0.22    Kansas State    +0.17 +/- 0.12
Baylor          -0.11 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma State  +0.01 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.11 +/- 0.19    Oklahoma        -0.07 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma        -0.13 +/- 0.30    West Virginia   -0.08 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech      -0.16 +/- 0.22    Texas Tech      -0.12 +/- 0.12
TCU             -0.22 +/- 0.24    Iowa State      -0.20 +/- 0.20
Iowa State      -0.41 +/- 0.35    Kansas          -0.21 +/- 0.14
West Virginia   -0.53 +/- 0.35    TCU             -0.25 +/- 0.15

Oklahoma State surrendered the top spot in strength of schedule to in-state
rival Oklahoma.  However, Oklahoma's next game is at home against the weakest
of the other nine conference teams, which leads me to expect that Oklahoma
State will be back on top after Round 13.  Where will Kansas be after these
next two games?  And who among the Top 10 isn't in the Big 12?  Well, Nebraska
is #3, Clemson is #5, Butler is #8, and Tennessee is #10.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma State  85.50   Baylor          62.29   Oklahoma State  162.96   West Virginia   +18.72   
West Virginia   85.24   Texas Tech      66.48   Kansas          155.60   Kansas          +10.24   
Kansas          82.92   West Virginia   66.52   West Virginia   151.76   Baylor           +9.54   
Iowa State      80.00   Kansas State    66.92   Iowa State      150.54   Iowa State       +9.46   
Texas Tech      74.40   TCU             69.17   Oklahoma        148.71   Oklahoma State   +8.04   
TCU             74.04   Texas           69.60   TCU             143.21   Texas Tech       +7.92   
Kansas State    73.56   Iowa State      70.54   Texas Tech      140.88   Kansas State     +6.64   
Oklahoma        73.08   Kansas          72.68   Kansas State    140.48   TCU              +4.88   
Baylor          71.83   Oklahoma        75.63   Texas           138.08   Texas            -1.12   
Texas           68.48   Oklahoma State  77.46   Baylor          134.13   Oklahoma         -2.54   

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma        82.37 ( 1)
Oklahoma State  81.86 ( 2)
Baylor          81.25 ( 4)
Texas           80.89 ( 6)
Kansas          80.70 ( 7)
Iowa State      80.47 ( 9)
TCU             78.75 (28)
Kansas State    78.22 (36)
West Virginia   77.16 (51)
Texas Tech      75.76 (69)