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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, Round 11
- asteroid
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7 years 2 months ago #11206
by asteroid
Round 11 was comparatively tame. Oklahoma State lost a toss-up game,
which cost them a half win and dropped the Cowboys out of the upper
division behind both Kansas State and TCU. No other changes.
However, Saturday's games could simply undo the change noted above.
Oklahoma State is favored over Texas, while Kansas State and TCU are
underdogs to contenders. The projection is therefore that Oklahoma
State will be right back in the upper division after Saturday's action.
Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9 Rd 10 Rd 11
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 9 Kansas 13.84 14.52 14.52 14.05 14.53 13.65 13.93 9 2 @TTU (Sa) KU by 5.0 RW
# 14 Baylor 12.63 12.68 13.27 13.34 13.00 12.04 12.60 8 3 TCU (Sa) BU by 8.9
# 1 West Virginia 14.23 12.95 12.04 12.53 12.90 12.00 12.21 7 4 KSU (Sa) WVU by 12.4
# 19 Iowa State 10.42 9.79 10.18 10.41 9.87 10.72 10.03 6 5 OU (Sa) ISU by 10.7
# 31 Kansas State 6.72 7.62 8.63 8.44 7.57 8.61 8.35 5 6 @WVU (Sa)
# 36 TCU 8.57 8.13 7.49 6.97 7.69 8.01 8.34 6 5 @BU (Sa)
# 23 Oklahoma State 6.53 5.52 6.51 7.00 7.72 8.67 8.14 4 7 UT (Sa) OSU by 9.5
# 38 Texas Tech 7.68 8.14 7.10 7.04 6.50 6.79 6.46 4 7 KU (Sa)
# 59 Texas 4.82 4.64 4.65 5.03 5.69 5.27 5.94 4 7 @OSU (Sa)
# 61 Oklahoma 4.56 6.01 5.61 5.19 4.53 4.24 4.00 2 9 @ISU (Sa)
ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 11. Sagarin
retains the season lead.
Predictions Reality Er1or 1 1 1 2 3 1 1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Coll Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd Real
OSU over BU 0.8 -1.0 0.3 2.0 -2.5 2.5 -6.5 1.4 -1.1 -1.1 4.0 0.1 1.5 2.0 4.8 3.0 -3 3.8 2.0 3.3 5.0 0.5 5.5 3.5 4.4 1.9 1.9 7.0 3.1 4.5 5.0 7.8 6.0
TCU over TTU 3.5 5.0 4.1 3.5 -4.0 3.5 5.8 4.0 3.8 2.8 3.0 5.2 4.3 4.8 5.8 9.0 1 2.5 4.0 3.1 2.5 5.0 2.5 4.8 3.0 2.8 1.8 2.0 4.2 3.3 3.8 4.8 8.0
KU over KSU 4.0 3.0 1.5 2.5 5.0 3.0 6.1 2.5 2.8 4.1 -2.0 1.7 3.7 3.2 4.1 -4.0 3 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 2.0 0.0 3.1 0.5 0.2 1.1 5.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 1.1 7.0
ISU over UT 4.5 5.0 4.0 3.0 -6.5 3.0 5.6 4.1 3.7 3.2 -4.0 4.3 6.2 5.7 1.1 5.0 -2 6.5 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.5 5.0 7.6 6.1 5.7 5.2 2.0 6.3 8.2 7.7 3.1 7.0
WVU over OU 10.8 9.0 10.5 6.5 5.0 7.5 10.6 11.3 9.2 12.3 2.0 9.0 13.4 12.9 8.0 15.0 11 0.2 2.0 0.5 4.5 6.0 3.5 0.4 0.3 1.8 1.3 9.0 2.0 2.4 1.9 3.0 4.0
total this round 14.0 15.0 14.4 17.5 18.0 16.5 19.4 14.3 12.4 11.3 25.0 16.9 19.1 18.6 19.8 32.0
previous total 355.4 371.0 364.6 363.5 424.0 360.0 454.5 369.8 376.1 167.4 385.0 386.6 383.3 389.4 394.1 94.0
cumulative 369.4 386.0 379.0 381.0 442.0 376.5 473.9 384.1 388.5 178.7 410.0 403.5 402.4 408.0 413.9 126.0
per game (total of 55) 6.7 7.0 6.9 6.9 8.0 6.8 8.6 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 8.4
Three road wins were projected for Round 11, and three happened, just not
the three that were expected. Iowa State did not get the road win in
Austin, but Baylor did get the road win in Stillwater. Of course, the
latter was a toss-up game, so no surprise there. Only one road win is
projected for Round 12, with Kansas favored in Lubbock.
Road wins (23 out of 55) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
------------------------------------- ------------------------------------- --------------------
4 Baylor OU KSU TCU OSU 1 Baylor KSU +3 Baylor
4 Kansas TCU OU ISU KSU 1 Kansas ISU +3 Kansas
4 West Virginia OSU UT ISU OU 1 Texas Tech OSU +2 West Virginia
3 Iowa State OSU OU KU 2 Iowa State KU WVU +1 Iowa State
3 Oklahoma State TTU OU WVU 2 TCU KU BU 0 TCU
2 Kansas State OSU BU 2 Texas TCU WVU -1 Kansas State
2 TCU UT KSU 2 West Virginia OU OSU -1 Oklahoma State
1 Oklahoma WVU 3 Kansas State BU TCU KU -1 Texas Tech
0 Texas 4 Oklahoma State WVU ISU KSU BU -2 Texas
0 Texas Tech 5 Oklahoma BU KU ISU OSU WVU -4 Oklahoma
The inconsistency for Kansas went back down, having played within a
point of expectation against Kansas State.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
West Virginia +1.68 Kansas 6.71
Oklahoma State +1.27 Kansas State 7.71
TCU +1.07 Texas Tech 8.05
Iowa State +0.69 TCU 8.09
Baylor +0.63 Baylor 8.41
Kansas State +0.58 Oklahoma 10.22
Kansas +0.35 Texas 11.07
Texas Tech +0.29 Iowa State 12.26
Oklahoma -0.81 West Virginia 13.23
Texas -0.87 Oklahoma State 13.72
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Texas +0.37 +/- 0.32 Kansas State +0.22 +/- 0.12
Oklahoma State +0.27 +/- 0.44 Texas +0.19 +/- 0.23
Kansas State +0.10 +/- 0.23 Baylor +0.17 +/- 0.16
Kansas -0.08 +/- 0.20 Oklahoma State +0.01 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma -0.12 +/- 0.33 Oklahoma -0.08 +/- 0.20
TCU -0.16 +/- 0.26 West Virginia -0.09 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech -0.20 +/- 0.24 Texas Tech -0.13 +/- 0.12
Baylor -0.21 +/- 0.27 Iowa State -0.20 +/- 0.20
Iowa State -0.49 +/- 0.38 Kansas -0.20 +/- 0.14
West Virginia -0.65 +/- 0.37 TCU -0.22 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech's next four games are against the top four teams in the Big 12.
How much will that improve their strength of schedule, currently the
weakest in the conference and only #76 nationally?
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Oklahoma State 85.65 Baylor 62.65 Oklahoma State 163.30 West Virginia +18.88
West Virginia 85.33 Texas Tech 65.83 Kansas 155.46 Kansas +10.46
Kansas 82.96 Kansas State 66.25 West Virginia 151.79 Baylor +9.35
Iowa State 80.09 West Virginia 66.46 Iowa State 150.83 Iowa State +9.35
TCU 74.91 Texas 69.08 Oklahoma 148.91 Texas Tech +8.46
Texas Tech 74.29 TCU 69.22 TCU 144.13 Oklahoma State +8.00
Kansas State 73.79 Iowa State 70.74 Texas Tech 140.13 Kansas State +7.54
Oklahoma 73.39 Kansas 72.50 Kansas State 140.04 TCU +5.70
Baylor 72.00 Oklahoma 75.52 Texas 137.38 Texas -0.79
Texas 68.29 Oklahoma State 77.65 Baylor 134.65 Oklahoma -2.13
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Oklahoma State 82.08 ( 1)
Oklahoma 81.85 ( 2)
Baylor 81.29 ( 3)
Iowa State 80.83 ( 5)
Texas 80.38 ( 9)
Kansas 80.35 (10)
TCU 78.14 (31)
Kansas State 77.32 (42)
West Virginia 76.85 (51)
Texas Tech 74.93 (76)
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- NotOstertag
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7 years 2 months ago #11208
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Always appreciated, Asteroid.
One other tidbit: Sagarin projects 13.93 wins and the 13th consecutive championship for us.
Historically, 13 or 14 wins is enough to share or take the title outright respectively. With that in mind, we need to go 4-3 to get to 13, or 5-2 to win outright (had we not dropped that game to ISU those numbers would be 3-4 and 4-3).
So it's significant that had we not lost to ISU we could actually finish with a losing record and still have a very good shot at a shared title.
Nevertheless, each game we salt away makes the road that much more difficult for our opponents. To wit:
>For WVU to get to 14, they need to go 7-0 (including road wins at KU, Baylor and TCU). To get to 13, they need to go 6-1. WVU's back is against the wall.
>Baylor is also looking at a steepening climb. To get to 14 they need to go 6-1, and 5-2 to get to 13. Their toughest road game left is ISU.
Of course, I'm sure that there's a scenario where 3 teams tie at 12 wins or some other thing. Our biggest remaining challenges are next week when WVU plays at AFH, followed immediately with a road trip to Baylor on the 18th.
So the next 3 games will likely determine the outcome of the conference. We need to win on the road at Tech on Saturday (WVU lost there), and then batten down the hatches to beat WVU in Allen before our trip to Waco. If we go 3-0, we'll be at 12 wins with a 2 game cushion on Baylor and 3 on WVU with only 4 games left, almost closing the door on both WVU and very close to doing so vs. Baylor.
With all that in mind, Tech is a game that we should win, but is also a MUST win if we don't want to let everyone else back in the race.
One other tidbit: Sagarin projects 13.93 wins and the 13th consecutive championship for us.
Historically, 13 or 14 wins is enough to share or take the title outright respectively. With that in mind, we need to go 4-3 to get to 13, or 5-2 to win outright (had we not dropped that game to ISU those numbers would be 3-4 and 4-3).
So it's significant that had we not lost to ISU we could actually finish with a losing record and still have a very good shot at a shared title.
Nevertheless, each game we salt away makes the road that much more difficult for our opponents. To wit:
>For WVU to get to 14, they need to go 7-0 (including road wins at KU, Baylor and TCU). To get to 13, they need to go 6-1. WVU's back is against the wall.
>Baylor is also looking at a steepening climb. To get to 14 they need to go 6-1, and 5-2 to get to 13. Their toughest road game left is ISU.
Of course, I'm sure that there's a scenario where 3 teams tie at 12 wins or some other thing. Our biggest remaining challenges are next week when WVU plays at AFH, followed immediately with a road trip to Baylor on the 18th.
So the next 3 games will likely determine the outcome of the conference. We need to win on the road at Tech on Saturday (WVU lost there), and then batten down the hatches to beat WVU in Allen before our trip to Waco. If we go 3-0, we'll be at 12 wins with a 2 game cushion on Baylor and 3 on WVU with only 4 games left, almost closing the door on both WVU and very close to doing so vs. Baylor.
With all that in mind, Tech is a game that we should win, but is also a MUST win if we don't want to let everyone else back in the race.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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