predictions for Kansas State game

Just how many signs will we see in the Octogon tonight with some reference
to "Travelin' Man"?  Or "druggie"?  Or "Person of Interest"?  We really
need these two road games, because the two after that are toss-up games.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, with a 70.3 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 147.9 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 76, Kansas State 72.  Kansas has played an average of 0.4 points
above expectation, but Kansas State has played an average of 0.6 points above
expectation, which decreases the margin for Kansas to 3.8 points.  Kansas and
Kansas State are the conference's two most consistent teams, the Jayhawks being
1 point more consistent than the Wildcats.  Kansas has played 5 out of 23 games
below expectation by more than 4 points, corresponding to a 21.7 percent chance
of losing, while Kansas State has played 7 out of 23 games above expectation by
more than 4 points, corresponding to a 30.4 percent chance of winning, with
those two averaging to a 26.1 percent chance of Kansas losing, a tad more
optimistic than the 29.7 percent chance of losing derived from the Sagarin
Predictor ratings.  Neither the negative trend for Kansas nor the positive
trend for Kansas State is statistically significant.  However, the negative
mental toughness for Kansas and the positive mental toughness for Kansas State
are marginally significant.  Recall, though, that a negative mental toughness
hurts you when playing a team stronger than your own, which Kansas State is
not.  The positive rating for Kansas State does help them against stronger
teams, however, which Kansas is.  The net effect, however, is minimal, making
Kansas a 4.1 point favorite.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method makes
the margin 3.8 points, with the same final score of Kansas 76, Kansas State 72.

Massey gives Kansas a 3.0 point margin, with a 61 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 76, Kansas State 73.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 7.7 units, but Kansas
State has the better adjusted defense by 1.0 units, which makes the advantage
for Kansas 6.7 units.  The average adjusted tempo is 68.4 possessions, which
makes the margin 4.6 points.  Subtract the home court advantage, which Sagarin
currently has at 3.1 points, and the margin becomes 1.5 points.  The final
score would then be Kansas 74, Kansas State 73, with the rounding working
against the Jayhawks.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 2.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 74.5 (you pick the rounding), Kansas State 72.  Among the key
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in seven of the eight categories;
Kansas State attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of the seven categories;
Kansas State holds opponents to fewer points per game, has more steals per
game, and commits fewer personal fouls per game (shades of Iowa State).

Dunkel gives Kansas a 5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
3 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  His total points is 153,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 79, Kansas State 74, while the Vegas total
is 148, suggesting a final score of Kansas 75.5, Kansas State 72.5 (you pick
the roundings).

Real Time makes Kansas a 4.0 point underdog, with a 40.8 percent probability
of winning the game, and a final score of Kansas 79, Kansas State 83.

Collegiate Basketball News still has Baylor at #1 in the RPI, with Villanova still
at #2.  Louisville and North Carolina moved up to #3 and #4, respectively, while
Kansas fell to #5.  Oklahoma State is now third in the Big 12 at #29, while West
Virginia fell to #34.  Kansas State is #39, with Iowa State right behind at #40.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 2.5 point margin with a 58.6 percent probability of winning,
and a final score of Kansas 74.5 (you pick the rounding), Kansas State 72.

Don Davis gives Kansas a 3.5 point margin, with a 67.3 percent probability of
winning.

Colley gives Kansas a 6.1 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 2.8 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 4.1 point margin, with a 65.3 percent
probability of winning.

The LRMC has Kansas ranked #9, down a spot from where Kansas was ranked before
the Iowa State game.

Seven Overtimes makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog with a 44 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 73, Kansas State 75.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 1.7 point margin.

There are eight common opponents, all in conference, one of which Kansas has
played twice (Iowa State) and one of which Kansas State has played twice (Baylor)
plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us eleven scores to compare:

KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
KSU  +3 UT  at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +5 KSU on road ( +9 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
KSU +11 OU  at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU   +4 KSU on road ( +8 neutral court)

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
KSU  -1 TTU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +6 KSU on road (+10 neutral court)

KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)     KU   +5 BU  at home ( +1 neutral court)
KSU  -9 BU  at home (-13 neutral court)     KSU  +2 BU  on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU  +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral court)     KU   -9 KSU on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KSU  +8 OSU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU  -13 KSU on road ( -9 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)
KSU  +4 WVU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU  -16 KSU on road (-12 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KSU  -5 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)     KSU  -5 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU   +5 KSU on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU  -10 KSU on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
KSU  -6 TCU at home (-10 neutral court)
KU  +16 KSU on road (+20 neutral court)

KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU   -6 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)

Although six of the eleven comparisons favor Kansas, the average favors
Kansas State by 0.7 points.

Players to watch:  Guard Kamau Stokes plays the most minutes and dishes the
most assists, but also commits the most turnovers; guard Barry Brown scores
the most points and is their leading thief; forward D. J. Johnson grabs the
most rebounds and blocks the most shots, but also commits the most personal
fouls.  On the Kansas side, word is that Bragg will suit up for the game;
doesn't mean he will play, however.

So, the various prognostications range from a 6.1 point win (Colley) to a
4 point loss (Real Time).  That the common opponents favor Kansas State
gives some legitimacy to Real Time and Seven Overtimes, who are the only
other contrarians, and among the less reliable prognosticators.  The average
is 2.9 points in favor of Kansas, suggesting a final score of Kansas 75,
Kansas State 72.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  8   # 10   #  9   #  5   #  4   +0.4    6.9   -0.07 +/- 0.22   -0.19 +/- 0.15
Kansas State   # 31   # 52   # 30   # 32   # 31   +0.6    7.9   +0.12 +/- 0.25   +0.24 +/- 0.13
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  1   #  9   #  9   #  7  #  2    #  7    #  3   # 23   #  5   # 23
Kansas State   # 27  # 27   # 28   # 46   # 31  # 34    # 32    # 43   # 56   # 39   # 49
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3   #  3   # 11   #  3   #  4   #  2   #  3   1.134   20-3     #     #   
Kansas State   # 32   # 32   # 29   # 43   # 38   # 32   # 32   0.833   16-7     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  # 16    #  8  #  2    # 11  # 16    #  9  #  2    #  4  #  1    # 10  # 14
Kansas State   # 40  # 51    # 31  # 46    # 32  # 42    # 27  # 53    # 36  # 51    # 30  # 48

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 29 Indiana                     99 103    +5.95    -9.95
NEUT   # 10 Duke                        77  75    +0.17    +1.83
HOME   #186 Siena                       86  65   +25.09    -4.09
HOME   #132 UAB                         83  63   +21.39    -1.39
HOME   # 50 Georgia                     65  54   +12.57    -1.57
HOME   #127 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.22   +16.78
HOME   #215 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.90    +3.10
HOME   # 87 Stanford                    89  74   +17.48    -2.48
HOME   #257 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +29.56   +13.44
HOME   # 88 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.51    -0.51
HOME   # 79 Davidson                    89  71   +16.46    +1.54
AWAY   #196 UNLV                        71  53   +19.58    -1.58
AWAY   # 37 TCU                         86  80    +4.72    +1.28
HOME   # 30 Kansas State                90  88   +10.07    -8.07
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.25    +5.75
AWAY   # 61 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.41    +2.59
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma State              87  80    +7.35    -0.35
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.43    +3.57
HOME   # 60 Texas                       79  67   +14.12    -2.12
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia               69  85    -5.47   -10.53
AWAY   #  4 Kentucky                    79  73    -4.90   +10.90
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      73  68    +5.07    -0.07
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                  89  92    +6.55    -9.55
AWAY   # 30 Kansas State                          +3.95             0.703
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                            +5.13             0.750
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         +0.65             0.524
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                                -1.05             0.446
HOME   # 37 TCU                                  +10.84             0.923
AWAY   # 60 Texas                                 +8.00             0.806
HOME   # 61 Oklahoma                             +14.53             0.948
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma State                        +1.23             0.544

Here is Kansas State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #304 Western Illinois            82  55   +26.36    +0.64
HOME   #187 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           81  68   +18.13    -5.13
HOME   #319 Hampton                     89  67   +28.11    -6.11
HOME   #281 Robert Morris               61  40   +23.96    -2.96
NEUT   #133 Boston College              72  54   +11.45    +6.55
NEUT   # 39 Maryland                    68  69    +1.38    -2.38
HOME   #167 Green Bay                   80  61   +16.82    +2.18
AWAY   #287 Saint Louis                 84  53   +18.16   +12.84
HOME   #321 Prairie View A&M            74  55   +28.29    -9.29
HOME   #181 Washington State            70  56   +17.91    -3.91
AWAY   #105 Colorado State              89  70    +6.01   +12.99
HOME   #212 Gardner-Webb                67  54   +19.82    -6.82
HOME   # 60 Texas                       65  62    +7.11    -4.11
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                      88  90   -10.07    +8.07
HOME   # 61 Oklahoma                    75  64    +7.52    +3.48
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                  65  66    -1.88    +0.88
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      68  77    -1.94    -7.06
AWAY   # 21 Oklahoma State              96  88    -5.78   +13.78
HOME   #  1 West Virginia               79  75    -6.36   +10.36
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  65  70    -6.58    +1.58
AWAY   # 49 Tennessee                   58  70    -0.58   -11.42
HOME   # 37 TCU                         80  86    +3.83    -9.83
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      56  54    -8.06   +10.06
HOME   #  9 Kansas                                -3.95             0.297
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                        -12.48             0.130
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            -0.46             0.482
AWAY   # 60 Texas                                 +0.99             0.541
HOME   # 21 Oklahoma State                        +0.34             0.512
AWAY   # 61 Oklahoma                              +1.40             0.559
AWAY   # 37 TCU                                   -2.29             0.388
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                            +4.24             0.700