predictions for Baylor game

Like the beginning of the season, we followed a loss with a signature win over
a blueblood.  The question is, can we go on another 18-game winning streak?
That would get us to the Final Four.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 5.1 point margin, with a 74.6 percent probability of
winning the game.  The two teams average 145.3 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 75, Baylor 70.  Kansas has played an average of 0.6 points
above expectation, but Baylor has played an average of 0.8 points above
expectation, which decreases the margin for Kansas to 4.9 points.  Kansas
is more consistent than Baylor, but both are better than the national average.
Kansas has played 3 of its 21 games below expectation by more than 5 points,
which would be enough to lose today's game.  That corresponds to a 14 percent
chance of losing.  Baylor has played 8 of its 20 Division I games above
expectation by more than 5 points, which would be enough to win today's game,
but half of those came consecutively during the non-conference portion of the
season when they rose to national prominence by defeating both Michigan State
and Louisville.  That corresponds to a 40 percent chance of winning.  Those
average to a 27 percent chance of Kansas losing, a good match to the 25.4
percent chance derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Kansas has a
positive trend, thanks to the Kentucky game, while Baylor has a negative
trend, though neither is statistically significant.  On the other hand,
Kansas has a negative mental toughness rating, while Baylor's is positive,
both with marginal statistical significance.  Taken at face value, the margin
would be 5.4 points for Kansas.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method puts
the margin at 3.8 points, with a final score of Kansas 73, Baylor 69.

Massey gives Kansas a 5.0 point margin, with a 67 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 74, Baylor 69.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 4.6 units, but Baylor
has the better adjusted defense by 4.6 units, which exactly cancel each other
out.  Thus the margin for Kansas is just the home court advantage, which
Sagarin currently has at 3.1 points.  The final score would then be Kansas 73,
Baylor 70.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 6.5 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score of
Kansas 75, Baylor 69.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in six of the eight categories; Baylor has a higher offensive rebound percentage
and attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.  Among the key defensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in just three of the seven categories, namely
more offensive rebounds per game, more defensive rebounds per game, and more
steals per game.

Dunkel makes Kansas a 3 point underdog, and he claims that a Vegas line has Kansas
as a 6.5 point favorite, so he is obviously picking Baylor against the spread.  His
total points is 150, suggesting a final score of Kansas 73.5, Baylor 76.5 (you pick
the roundings).  Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 143 total points, suggesting a final
score of Kansas 75, Baylor 68.

Real Time gives Kansas a 5 point margin with a final score of Kansas 72, Baylor 67.
But if you click on the Scouting link, the margin drops to 4 points, the
probability of Kansas winning is 61.5 percent, and the final score is Kansas 71,
Baylor 67.

Collegiate Basketball News still has Baylor at #1 in the RPI, with Villanova still
at #2, and Kansas moving up to the #3 slot after beating Kentucky, who dropped to
#7.  West Virginia is still third in the Big 12 at #23, while Oklahoma State is
now fourth at #36.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 4.3 point margin with a 64.6 percent probability of winning,
and a final score of Kansas 73, Baylor 69.

Don Davis' January 26 email gives Kansas a 3.4 point margin, with a 67.1 percent
probability of winning, and a final score of Kansas 74, Baylor 71.  The margin
probably went up a little after the Kentucky game.

Colley gives Kansas just a 1.1 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas a 3.8 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI gives Kansas a 6.5 point margin, with a 73.8 percent
probability of winning.

The LRMC has Kansas ranked #7, while Baylor is #12.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin with a 72 percent probability of
winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 76, Baylor 70.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 5.2 point margin.

There are eight common opponents, all in conference:

KU  +11 OU  on road (+15 neutral court)
BU  +26 OU  on road (+30 neutral court)
KU  -11 BU  at home (-15 neutral court)

KU   +4 ISU on road ( +8 neutral court)
BU   +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU  +14 BU  at home (+10 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral court)
BU   +4 OSU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   +7 BU  at home ( +3 neutral court)

KU  -16 WVU on road (-12 neutral court)
BU  -21 WVU on road (-17 neutral court)
KU   +9 BU  at home ( +5 neutral court)

KU   +2 KSU at home ( -2 neutral court)
BU   +9 KSU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU  -11 BU  at home (-15 neutral court)

KU  +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral court)
BU  +10 UT  at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU   +6 BU  at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU on road (+10 neutral court)
BU   +9 TCU on road (+13 neutral court)
KU   +1 BU  at home ( -3 neutral court)

KU  +17 TTU at home (+13 neutral court)
BU   +4 TTU at home (  0 neutral court)
KU  +17 BU  at home (+13 neutral court)

Six of the eight comparisons favor Kansas, with the average being 4.0 points,
right in the range of the various prognostications.

Players to watch:  Guard Manu Lecomte plays the most minutes and dishes the most
assists; forward Johnathan Motley scores the most points and grabs the most rebounds,
but also commits the most turnovers and the most personal fouls; forward Jo Acuil
blocks the most shots; guard Ish Wainright is their leading thief.

So, the various prognostications range from a 6.5 point win (Greenfield, Vegas, ESPN)
to a 3 point loss (Dunkel).  The average is 4.6 points in favor of Kansas, suggesting
a final score of Kansas 75, Baylor 70.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   # 14   #  8   #  4   #  4   +0.6    6.8   +0.06 +/- 0.25   -0.17 +/- 0.15
Baylor         # 11   #  7   # 13   #  8   #  7   +0.8    8.6   -0.21 +/- 0.34   +0.18 +/- 0.17
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  1   #  8   # 11   #  4  # 14    #  9    #  3   # 32   #  3   # 30
Baylor         #  2  # 18   #  7   # 15   #  1  # 12    # 10    #  1   # 19   #  1   # 12
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  6   #  2   #  2   #  2   #  3   1.081   19-2     #     #   
Baylor         #  1   #  1   # 13   #  1   #  1   #  1   #  1   1.086   20-1     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  # 24    #  6  #  7    #  7  # 18    #  7  #  3    #  3  #  3    #  8  # 12
Baylor         #  1  # 18    #  8  # 31    # 15  # 23    # 12  # 12    # 17  # 18    # 10  # 11

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 29 Indiana                     99 103    +6.28   -10.28
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.40    +1.60
HOME   #181 Siena                       86  65   +25.10    -4.10
HOME   #113 UAB                         83  63   +20.45    -0.45
HOME   # 52 Georgia                     65  54   +13.08    -2.08
HOME   #127 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.56   +16.44
HOME   #213 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.51    +2.49
HOME   # 90 Stanford                    89  74   +18.10    -3.10
HOME   #265 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +30.61   +12.39
HOME   # 81 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.31    -0.31
HOME   # 77 Davidson                    89  71   +16.42    +1.58
AWAY   #190 UNLV                        71  53   +19.55    -1.55
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         86  80    +5.77    +0.23
HOME   # 34 Kansas State                90  88   +10.63    -8.63
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.55    +5.45
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma                    81  70    +8.77    +2.23
HOME   # 24 Oklahoma State              87  80    +8.42    -1.42
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                  76  72    +1.19    +2.81
HOME   # 59 Texas                       79  67   +14.18    -2.18
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia               69  85    -5.62   -10.38
AWAY   #  2 Kentucky                    79  73    -5.08   +11.08
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +5.13             0.746
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                            +7.31             0.764
AWAY   # 34 Kansas State                          +4.51             0.733
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                            +5.43             0.760
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         +0.50             0.519
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                -0.99             0.449
HOME   # 40 TCU                                  +11.89             0.942
AWAY   # 59 Texas                                 +8.06             0.801
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma                             +14.89             0.947
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma State                        +2.30             0.583

Here is Baylor's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #216 Oral Roberts                76  61   +25.49   -10.49
HOME   # 14 Oregon                      66  49    +3.87   +13.13
HOME   #123 Florida Gulf Coast          81  72   +19.11   -10.11
NEUT   # 45 VCU(Va. Commonwealth)       71  63    +7.33    +0.67
NEUT   # 43 Michigan State              73  58    +7.04    +7.96
NEUT   #  4 Louisville                  66  63    -3.56    +6.56
HOME   #203 Sam Houston State           79  45   +24.73    +9.27
HOME   # 25 Xavier-Ohio                 76  61    +6.63    +8.37
HOME   #305 Southern U.                 89  59   +31.45    -1.45
HOME   #318 Jackson State               82  57   +33.17    -8.17
NAIA        John Brown                 107  53
HOME   #202 Texas Southern              89  63   +24.72    +1.28
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma                    76  50    +6.70   +19.30
HOME   # 19 Iowa State                  65  63    +5.24    -3.24
HOME   # 24 Oklahoma State              61  57    +6.35    -2.35
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia               68  89    -7.69   -13.31
AWAY   # 34 Kansas State                77  68    +2.44    +6.56
HOME   # 59 Texas                       74  64   +12.11    -2.11
AWAY   # 40 TCU                         62  53    +3.70    +5.30
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                  65  61    +9.48    -5.48
AWAY   # 74 Mississippi                 78  75    +8.15    -5.15
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                                -5.13             0.254
HOME   # 34 Kansas State                          +8.56             0.853
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma State                        +0.23             0.508
HOME   # 40 TCU                                   +9.82             0.878
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                            +3.36             0.653
HOME   #  8 Kansas                                +0.99             0.551
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma                             +12.82             0.901
AWAY   # 19 Iowa State                            -0.88             0.468
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -1.57             0.444
AWAY   # 59 Texas                                 +5.99             0.721