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Huge win - small loss

  • AZhawk87
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7 years 3 months ago #10647 by AZhawk87
I almost didn't write this because it sounds like a homer rationalizing another WVU road loss. But I think it's accurate.

If we win, it's huge. Breaking a WVU losing streak, stealing a road win, and burying WVU in the conference race.

If we lose, it's not a big killer. A loss at WVU is not uncommon, WVU away is a tough win, we're their biggest game, their backs are against the wall with the past losses and will come out swinging, and it's our first loss (one we all might assume would happen anyway).

So long as we don't lay down and get blown out, a loss tonight is a small bump in the road. A win is huge.
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7 years 3 months ago #10649 by NotOstertag
Not a rationalization at all. Totally makes sense.

Every rating/poll had the Big 12 narrowed down to a race between Baylor/WVU/KU when the conference season started. Granted, KU was the pick from the start of the season, but strong showings by the others put them in the mix. Moreover, plenty of ratings platforms had Baylor or WVU ahead of KU. In fact, per Asteroid's summary, the computers all have WVU ahead of KU despite their losing skid.

So expecting a loss at WVU shouldn't come as a shock. In fact, early on, I'm sure that the conventional wisdom had it that the three teams would most likely split their series with each other, and if any of the three swept their series with any of the others, that team would have a leg up. If not, the race would be decided based on the results vs. the other 7 teams in the league.

So you're absolutely correct. We have a little "house money" right now, and if we lose a little tonight, it's far from the end of the world. On the other hand, the upside of a win tonight is fairly huge.

Finally, keep in mind that of the 3 teams, only one game has been played, and WVU beat Baylor in Morgantown. If we lose tonight, we're in the same boat as Baylor in regard to WVU. If, however, we win, it not only gives us a leg up on WVU who would have to win at AFH to even up the series, but it also gives us a leg up on Baylor since a win by KU at WVU wouldn't be something that Baylor could match (since they already lost).

So yeah....tonight is a huge opportunity for us, with much more upside than downside.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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7 years 3 months ago #10664 by LKF_HAWK
Yet none of this happened, KU again gets blown out in the 2nd half against. I am sorry WVU doesn't have the same talent as KU yet every darn year KU gets hammered in Morgantown, just boggles the mind.

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7 years 3 months ago #10676 by AZhawk87
My only caveat to the thought that a loss was not such a big deal was not getting blown out.

Strangely, I don't feel like we actually lost by 19 points last night. We were in it with 8 minutes left, then the lights went out and we got smoked. The last couple years I recall we were never in the game.

So we lost, by 19, but I don't feel that bad about the game.

My main concern is that we are now so obviously vulnerable to an inside attack. We have no defense to layups and dunks. It's almost impossible to get a "stop" when you really need one, when the opponent just have to drive in the lane and either dunk or get fouled.

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