predictions for West Virginia game

Two projected losses in a row.  Perhaps a more pleasant way to look at it is a
combined win total of 0.536 in the next two games, which does round up to 1, or
in other words, a split.  Sort of like the first two games of the season.
Although I'd dearly love to beat Kentucky, beating West Virginia in Morgantown
would go a long way toward winning the 13th consecutive conference championship,
which is arguably the more important of the two goals.  And a marginally easier
task.

Sagarin makes Kansas a 5.6 point underdog, with just a 29.7 percent probability
of winning the game.  The two teams average 154.3 points, so the suggested final
score is Kansas 74, West Virginia 80.  Kansas has played an average of 0.7 points
above expectation, but West Virginia has played an average of 2.3 points above
expectation, which increases the margin for West Virginia to 7.2 points.  Kansas
is way more consistent than West Virginia, but unfortunately, that consistency
means the Jayhawks have played only 2 of their 19 games above expectation by more
than 6 points, which is what would be needed to win the game.  That corresponds to
a 10.5 percent probability of winning.  West Virginia, however, has played 6 of
their 19 games below expectation by more than 6 points, including their last 3 in
a row, meaning the Mountaineers have a 31.6 percent chance of losing.  Those two
average to a 21.1 percent chance of Kansas winning, somewhat less optimistic than
the probability derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  However, it is worth
pointing out that the last time a contender (Baylor) came to Morgantown, West
Virginia smoked them by a whopping 21 points, playing almost 14 points above
expectation in the process.  The Mountaineers' last three games have saddled
them with a strongly negative trend, while Kansas has a weakly positive trend of
no statistical significance.  Both teams have negative mental toughness ratings,
with the Kansas value being a little larger and of some statistical significance,
unlike West Virginia's.  Taken at face value, the margin for West Virginia drops
to just 3.5 points.  Actually, the Sagarin Predictor rating is the least
optimistic of his various ratings for Kansas.  Using the "Recent" rating instead,
the margin for West Virginia is just 2.3 points.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense"
method puts the margin at 7.6 points, with a final score of Kansas 78, West
Virginia 86.

Massey makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog, with just a 47 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 80, West Virginia 82.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 1.3 units, but West Virginia
has the better adjusted defense by 3.6 units, which combine to an advantage of 2.3
units for West Virginia.  The average adjusted tempo is 72.0, which translates into
a 1.66 point advantage for West Virginia.  But we need to add the home court
advantage, which Sagarin has currently pegged at 3.13 points.  That makes the margin
4.79 points, and the predicted final score Kansas 75, West Virginia 79, with the
rounding working in the Jayhawks' favor.

Greenfield makes Kansas a 4.0 point underdog, with a Vegas implied final score of
Kansas 78.5, West Virginia 82.5 (you pick the roundings).  Among the key offensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in just two of the eight categories, namely total
rebounds per game and effective field goal percentage.  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in four of the seven categories; West Virginia holds
opponents to fewer points per game, grabs more offensive rebounds per game, and steals
more balls per game.

Dunkel calls the game even, and he claims that a Vegas line has Kansas as a 4.5 point
underdog, so he is obviously picking Kansas against the spread.  His total points is
156, suggesting a "final" score of Kansas 78, West Virginia 78, or in other words,
overtime.  Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 162.5 total points, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 79, West Virginia 83.5 (you pick the rounding).

Real Time makes Kansas a 5 point underdog with a final score of Kansas 82, West
Virginia 87.  But if you click on the Scouting link, West Virginia has a 6 point
margin, the probability of Kansas winning is 37.0 percent, and the final score is
Kansas 82, West Virginia 88.

Collegiate Basketball News has Baylor back at #1 in the RPI, with Villanova dropping
to #2, Kentucky is #3, Butler is #4, Florida State is #5, and Kansas dropped to #6,
probably because Duke lost again.  TCU is back in third place among Big 12 teams at
#36, Kansas State is #38, and West Virginia dropped to #43.

Dolphin makes Kansas a 6.3 point underdog with a 30.3 percent probability of winning,
and a final score of Kansas 76, West Virginia 83, the rounding working against Kansas
in this case.

Don Davis' January 7 email makes Kansas an 8.9 point underdog, with just a 16.8 percent
probability of wininng, and a final score of Kansas 73, West Virginia 81.5 (you pick the
rounding).  A more recent email noted the recent West Virginia losses and reduced the
margin of victory for West Virginia, but silly me, I apparently deleted that email.

Colley gives Kansas a 5.8 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.  Hey,
a contrarian!

Whitlock makes Kansas a 2.3 point underdog using the scaling factor of 0.730 as
determined previously and Sagarin's 3.1 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI makes Kansas an 8.8 point underdog, with just a 45.7 percent
probability of winning.  They've since fixed the problem with the projected conference
records, with Kansas showing a 14.5/3.5 win/loss record.

The LRMC has Kansas ranked #7.  West Virginia dropped to #3.

Seven Overtimes makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog with a 45 percent probability of
winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 76, West Virginia 78.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 17.0 point margin.

There are seven common opponents, one non-conference (UMKC), and six conference:

KU  +43 UMKC at home (+39 neutral court)
WVU +45 UMKC at home (+41 neutral court)
KU   -6 WVU  on road ( -2 neutral court)

KU   +7 OSU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
WVU +17 OSU  on road (+21 neutral court)
KU  -22 WVU  on road (-18 neutral court)

KU  +17 TTU  at home (+13 neutral court)
WVU  -1 TTU  on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +6 WVU  on road (+10 neutral court)

KU   +6 TCU  on road (+10 neutral court)
WVU +12 TCU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU   -2 WVU  on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU  +12 UT   at home ( +8 neutral court)
WVU  +2 UT   on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU   -2 WVU  on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU  +11 OU   on road (+15 neutral court)
WVU  -2 OU   at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +17 WVU  on road (+21 neutral court)

KU   +2 KSU  at home ( -2 neutral court)
WVU  -4 KSU  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU   -6 WVU  on road ( -2 neutral court)

Just two of the seven comparisons favor Kansas, although another two are
essentially one-possession games.  The average is just 2.14 points in favor
of West Virginia.

Players to watch:  Guard Jevon Carter plays the most minutes, scores the most points,
dishes the most assists, and is their leading thief, but he also  commits the most
turnovers and the most personal fouls; forward Nathan Adrian grabs the most rebounds;
forward Sagaba Konate blocks the most shots.  Seems like the Mountaineers are a rather
one-dimensional team; control Carter, and you control the game.

So, the various prognostications range from a 5.8 point win (Colley) to an 8.8 point
loss (ESPN's BPI), unless you want to count Don Davis' 8.9 point out-of-date margin.
The average is 4.4 points in favor of the Mountaineers, suggesting a final score of
Kansas 75, West Virginia 79.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   # 21   #  7   #  4   #  4   +0.7    6.1   +0.08 +/- 0.26   -0.20 +/- 0.16
West Virginia  #  2   # 82   #  2   #  6   #  7   +2.3   13.5   -0.91 +/- 0.54   -0.13 +/- 0.24
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  4  # 10   #  8   # 21   #  5  # 13    #  5    #  2   # 38   #  6   # 40
West Virginia  # 18  # 34   #  4   # 83   #  3  # 14    #  2    # 19   #103   # 43   #117
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  4   #  8   #  3   #  6   #  2   #  4   0.940   18-1     #     #   
West Virginia  # 21   # 21   #  2   # 34   # 43   # 12   # 18   1.036   15-4     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  3  # 32    #  5  # 16    #  6  # 33    #  7  #  7    #  2  #  4    # 10  # 35
West Virginia  # 35  # 84    #  8  # 67    #  2  # 59    #  3  # 75    # 27  # 88    #  7  # 62

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 24 Indiana                     99 103    +4.64    -8.64
NEUT   #  9 Duke                        77  75    +0.66    +1.34
HOME   #180 Siena                       86  65   +24.90    -3.90
HOME   #136 UAB                         83  63   +21.94    -1.94
HOME   # 47 Georgia                     65  54   +12.51    -1.51
HOME   #130 NC Asheville                95  57   +21.67   +16.33
HOME   #221 Long Beach State            91  61   +27.64    +2.36
HOME   # 92 Stanford                    89  74   +18.02    -3.02
HOME   #269 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +30.64   +12.36
HOME   # 87 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.74    -0.74
HOME   # 81 Davidson                    89  71   +17.48    +0.52
AWAY   #190 UNLV                        71  53   +19.44    -1.44
AWAY   # 35 TCU                         86  80    +4.84    +1.16
HOME   # 31 Kansas State                90  88   +10.36    -8.36
HOME   # 40 Texas Tech                  85  68   +11.60    +5.40
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma                    81  70    +7.49    +3.51
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma State              87  80    +9.15    -2.15
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                  76  72    +0.25    +3.75
HOME   # 61 Texas                       79  67   +14.38    -2.38
AWAY   #  2 West Virginia                         -5.58             0.297
AWAY   #  1 Kentucky                              -6.36             0.239
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +4.60             0.726
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                            +6.51             0.738
AWAY   # 31 Kansas State                          +4.10             0.729
AWAY   # 40 Texas Tech                            +5.34             0.757
HOME   #  2 West Virginia                         +0.68             0.526
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -1.66             0.414
HOME   # 35 TCU                                  +11.10             0.948
AWAY   # 61 Texas                                 +8.12             0.803
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma                             +13.75             0.948
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma State                        +2.89             0.606

Here is West Virginia's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #217 Mount St. Mary's            87  59   +29.96    -1.96
HOME   #342 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)     107  66   +42.22    -1.22
HOME   #184 New Hampshire              100  41   +27.62   +31.38
NEUT   # 75 Illinois                    89  57   +15.69   +16.31
NEUT   # 95 Temple                      77  81   +17.65   -21.65
HOME   #256 Manhattan                  108  61   +32.27   +14.73
AWAY   #  6 Virginia                    66  57    -0.75    +9.75
HOME   #330 Western Carolina            90  37   +39.32   +13.68
HOME   #331 VMI                         90  55   +39.37    -4.37
HOME   #269 Kansas City(UMKC)          112  67   +33.09   +11.91
HOME   #287 Radford                     84  57   +34.26    -7.26
HOME   #165 Northern Kentucky           92  61   +26.68    +4.32
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma State              92  75    +5.34   +11.66
AWAY   # 40 Texas Tech                  76  77    +7.79    -8.79
HOME   # 35 TCU                         82  70   +13.55    -1.55
HOME   # 12 Baylor                      89  68    +7.05   +13.95
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       74  72   +10.57    -8.57
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma                    87  89   +16.20   -18.20
AWAY   # 31 Kansas State                75  79    +6.55   -10.55
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                +5.58             0.703
HOME   # 62 Texas A&M                            +17.08             0.917
AWAY   # 18 Iowa State                            +2.70             0.580
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma State                       +11.60             0.801
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma                              +9.94             0.796
HOME   # 31 Kansas State                         +12.81             0.881
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -0.68             0.474
HOME   # 40 Texas Tech                           +14.05             0.890
HOME   # 61 Texas                                +16.83             0.906
AWAY   # 35 TCU                                   +7.29             0.748
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                +0.79             0.527
HOME   # 18 Iowa State                            +8.96             0.749