Big 12 projection, Round 6

The Kansas road win in what was projected to be a toss-up game enabled the Jayhawks
to pick up a half win in the projected standings, while the revised Sagarin
Predictor ratings provided about 0.2 wins.  Meanwhile, West Virginia's stunning
home loss in what was supposed to be a high probability win cost them almost a
full win, and the revised ratings cost another 0.3 wins, so Kansas leapfrogged the
Mountaineers into first place in the projected standings.  Indeed, the Jayhawks
now have a 1.6 win cushion.  And the Texas Tech home win over TCU enabled the
Red Raiders to leapfrog the Horned Frogs into the upper division, barely.  Meanwhile,
Oklahoma's stunning road win in Morgantown not only got the Sooners nearly another
win in the projected standings, it improved their Sagarin Predictor rating by enough
to generate another half win, thereby enabling Oklahoma to leapfrog both Texas and
Oklahoma State in the projected standings.  Round 6 was a wild and wacky round!

All the upper division teams are playing lower division teams in Round 7, and all
the upper division teams are projected to win, although three of them could easily
go either way.  Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Kansas State can pull off the
upset over West Virginia in the Octogon.  See below for more on that.

                      Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  7  Kansas          13.49  13.01  13.40  13.60  13.84  14.52    6  0   UT  (Sa)   KU  by 14.8
#  2  West Virginia   14.75  13.76  13.84  14.26  14.23  12.95    4  2  @KSU (Sa)   WVU by  7.5   road win
# 12  Baylor          12.36  12.69  12.73  12.17  12.63  12.68    5  1  @TCU (Sa)   BU  by  2.3   road win
# 19  Iowa State      10.34  10.24  10.29  11.02  10.42   9.79    3  3  @OU  (Sa)   ISU by  4.1   road win
# 32  Texas Tech       7.73   8.88   8.48   8.78   7.68   8.14    3  3   OSU (Sa)   TTU by  3.1
# 31  TCU              7.25   7.24   7.21   7.72   8.57   8.13    3  3   BU  (Sa)
# 35  Kansas State     6.38   6.95   7.43   7.26   6.72   7.62    3  3   WVU (Sa)
# 53  Oklahoma         4.88   4.62   4.11   3.87   4.56   6.01    2  4   ISU (Sa)              
# 33  Oklahoma State   7.97   7.17   7.21   6.61   6.53   5.52    0  6  @TTU (Sa)
# 59  Texas            4.85   5.44   5.30   4.71   4.82   4.64    1  5  @KU  (Sa)              

This is getting embarrassing, but Seven Overtimes took honors AGAIN for best
prognostications in Round 6.  And after me criticizing them for being among
the worst historically.  Greenfield has taken over the season lead.  Dunkel
gets credit for coming closest on the West Virginia game.  I've left ESPN
out because the BPI wasn't available for the Kansas game, and it won't be
eligible for the season, but I plan to include it for later rounds.  Besides,
it's kind of screwy right now, predicting a 14-3 conference record for Kansas,
when in reality we play 18 conference games!

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Error               1                                         3           1           1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
KU  over ISU     0.2   4.0   2.0   2.0  -7.0   2.5   8.1  -0.1   3.3         4.0  -0.6  -0.4  -0.8   1.1            4     3.8   0.0   2.0   2.0  11.0   1.5   4.1   4.1   0.7         0.0   4.6   4.4   4.8   2.9      
TTU over TCU     2.7   3.0   2.4   4.5  11.5   4.5  -1.7   1.7   1.9   4.6   5.0   2.7   1.4   1.8   0.4            6     3.3   3.0   3.6   1.5   5.5   1.5   7.7   4.3   4.1         1.0   3.3   4.6   4.2   5.6      
OSU over KSU     4.6   1.0   2.5   3.0   1.0   4.0  -0.9   3.5   1.4   2.6   2.0   4.3   5.1   5.6   3.2           -8    12.6   9.0  10.5  11.0   9.0  12.0   7.1  11.5   9.4        10.0  12.3  13.1  13.6  11.2      
BU  over UT     12.9  18.0  15.3  14.0   4.5  14.0  24.1  13.1  16.4  14.0  11.0  18.2  15.3  15.7  10.0           10     2.9   8.0   5.3   4.0   5.5   4.0  14.1   3.1   6.4         1.0   8.2   5.3   5.7   0.0      
WVU over OU     18.6  16.0  18.7  16.5   8.5  17.0  17.4  20.9  18.0  26.3  10.0  20.1  22.7  23.1  20.2           -2    20.6  18.0  20.7  18.5  10.5  19.0  19.4  22.9  20.0        12.0  22.1  24.7  25.1  22.2      

total this round                                                                                                         43.2  38.0  42.1  37.0  41.5  38.0  52.4  45.9  40.6        24.0  50.5  52.1  53.4  41.9      
previous total                                                                                                          163.9 172.0 169.3 165.0 211.0 165.0 206.4 174.5 174.3       205.0 182.5 179.5 182.4 193.9
cumulative                                                                                                              207.1 210.0 211.4 202.0 252.5 203.0 258.8 220.4 214.9       229.0 233.0 231.6 235.8 235.8      
per game (total of 30)                                                                                                    6.9   7.0   7.0   6.7   8.4   6.8   8.6   7.3   7.2         7.6   7.8   7.7   7.9   7.9      

Only one road win had been projected for Round 6, but three occurred.
Still, we're very close to the long-term average of one road win in
three games.  Two road wins are projected for Round 7.

Road wins (11 out of 30)                Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Kansas          TCU OU  ISU           0 Baylor                                +3 Kansas        
2 Baylor          OU  KSU               0 Kansas                                +2 Baylor        
2 West Virginia   OSU UT                0 Texas Tech                            +1 West Virginia 
1 Iowa State      OSU                   1 Iowa State      KU                     0 Iowa State    
1 Kansas State    OSU                   1 Kansas State    BU                     0 Kansas State  
1 Oklahoma        WVU                   1 TCU             KU                     0 TCU           
1 TCU             UT                    1 West Virginia   OU                     0 Texas Tech    
0 Oklahoma State                        2 Oklahoma        BU  KU                -1 Oklahoma      
0 Texas                                 2 Texas           TCU WVU               -2 Texas         
0 Texas Tech                            3 Oklahoma State  WVU ISU KSU           -3 Oklahoma State

Kansas is no longer at the bottom of the conference in mental toughness.
West Virginia's conference-worst trend, coupled with a road game at
Kansas State, who has the conference's best mental toughness rating,
might just mean another loss for Huggy Bear.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +2.55    Kansas            6.32    
TCU             +1.77    Kansas State      7.06    
Iowa State      +1.15    TCU               7.66    
Baylor          +1.02    Texas Tech        7.88    
Oklahoma State  +0.95    Baylor            8.96    
Kansas State    +0.81    Oklahoma         10.90    
Kansas          +0.73    Texas            12.51    
Texas Tech      +0.65    Oklahoma State   13.28    
Oklahoma        -0.81    West Virginia    13.36    
Texas           -1.17    Iowa State       13.46    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.71 +/- 0.56    Kansas State    +0.26 +/- 0.13
Kansas State    +0.29 +/- 0.32    Texas           +0.21 +/- 0.28
Oklahoma        +0.17 +/- 0.56    Baylor          +0.16 +/- 0.19
Kansas          +0.12 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma        +0.02 +/- 0.22
TCU             +0.04 +/- 0.39    West Virginia   -0.08 +/- 0.25
Baylor          -0.11 +/- 0.46    Oklahoma State  -0.13 +/- 0.24
Texas Tech      -0.15 +/- 0.37    Texas Tech      -0.15 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma State  -0.54 +/- 0.66    Kansas          -0.19 +/- 0.17
Iowa State      -0.61 +/- 0.67    TCU             -0.20 +/- 0.16
West Virginia   -0.79 +/- 0.59    Iowa State      -0.21 +/- 0.25

Everybody is now in the upper half of Division I in strength of schedule.
Three are in the top ten.  Six are in the top twenty, soon to be seven.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
West Virginia   88.11   Baylor          62.24   Oklahoma State  167.18   West Virginia   +23.33   
Oklahoma State  87.06   Kansas State    64.50   Kansas          156.22   Kansas          +13.56   
Kansas          84.89   West Virginia   64.78   West Virginia   152.89   Iowa State      +12.65   
Iowa State      80.53   Texas Tech      65.28   Oklahoma        150.12   Texas Tech      +11.67   
Texas Tech      76.94   TCU             67.35   Iowa State      148.41   Baylor          +11.47   
TCU             76.00   Iowa State      67.88   TCU             143.35   Kansas State    +11.17   
Kansas State    75.67   Texas           68.67   Texas Tech      142.22   TCU              +8.65   
Oklahoma        75.59   Kansas          71.33   Kansas State    140.17   Oklahoma State   +6.94   
Baylor          73.71   Oklahoma        74.53   Texas           137.50   Oklahoma         +1.06   
Texas           68.83   Oklahoma State  80.12   Baylor          135.94   Texas            +0.17   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State  80.27 (  2)
Oklahoma        79.44 (  5)
Baylor          78.93 (  7)
Texas           78.33 ( 11)
Kansas          77.93 ( 18)
Iowa State      77.72 ( 20)
TCU             76.55 ( 33)
West Virginia   72.42 (122)
Kansas State    71.98 (138)
Texas Tech      71.44 (160)