Big 12 projection, Round 3

Kansas State won while TCU and Oklahoma State lost on Saturday, which enabled the
Wildcats to leapfrog both of those teams in the projected standings.  Although TCU
and Oklahoma State appear to be in a virtual tie, TCU has the edge if you look at
thousandths of a win.  No other changes in the standings, though the gap between
West Virginia and Kansas narrowed a bit more.  West Virginia remained #1 in
Sagarin Predictor, but slipped to #2 behind Kentucky overall.

For the first time in the history of these conference projections, we have a
projected toss-up down to thousandths of a game.  Iowa State is better than
Oklahoma State by the same amount as the home court advantage, leading to a
projected tie in that game.  However, a Big 12 home court has historically been
worth more than the national average, so give the edge to Oklahoma State.  Best
game of Round 4?  Obviously Baylor at West Virginia.  Not just a matchup between
upper division teams, but also a matchup of contenders.  Here's a chance for
Huggins to hang a conference loss on Baylor and remove another team from the
list of undefeateds.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  West Virginia   14.20  14.75  13.76  13.84    2  1   BU  (Tu)   WVU by  8.1
#  6  Kansas          13.34  13.49  13.01  13.40    3  0  @OU  (Tu)   KU  by  9.0   projected road win
# 11  Baylor          11.51  12.36  12.69  12.73    3  0  @WVU (Tu)
# 17  Iowa State       9.97  10.34  10.24  10.29    2  1  @OSU (We)   ISU by  0.0   toss-up
# 29  Texas Tech       8.00   7.73   8.88   8.48    1  2   KSU (Tu)   TTU by  4.6
# 40  Kansas State     6.26   6.38   6.95   7.43    2  1  @TT  (Tu)
# 34  TCU              7.42   7.25   7.24   7.21    1  2  @UT  (We)   TCU by  1.1   projected road win
# 30  Oklahoma State   8.55   7.97   7.17   7.21    0  3   ISU (We)   OSU by  0.0   toss-up
# 65  Texas            5.04   4.85   5.44   5.30    1  2   TCU (We)              
# 66  Oklahoma         5.71   4.88   4.62   4.11    0  3   KU  (Tu)              

Greenfield took honors for best prognostications in Round 3 and also moved into
the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Error               1                                         1                       1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
KSU over OU      6.4   8.0   8.5  11.0   7.5  11.0  14.0   8.6   9.8         9.0   9.5   8.5   8.9  11.3           11     4.6   3.0   2.5   0.0   3.5   0.0   3.0   2.4   1.2         2.0   1.5   2.5   2.1   0.3      
KU  over TTU     9.0  12.0   8.5  11.0   8.0  10.5  13.0   7.0   8.7         7.0  10.0   8.3   8.7   7.9   7.4     17     8.0   5.0   8.5   6.0   9.0   6.5   4.0  10.0   8.3        10.0   7.0   8.7   8.3   9.1   9.6
BU  over OSU     9.5  12.0  11.1  12.0   4.0  11.5  14.3  11.9  13.7         9.0  10.5   9.8  10.2  13.9            4     5.5   8.0   7.1   8.0   0.0   7.5  10.3   7.9   9.7         5.0   6.5   5.8   6.2   9.9      
ISU over UT     12.0  12.0   9.9   9.0  14.0   9.5  10.5  12.4  10.2         5.0  14.5  15.0  15.4   9.1            9     3.0   3.0   0.9   0.0   5.0   0.5   1.5   3.4   1.2         4.0   5.5   6.0   6.4   0.1      
WVU over TCU    15.0  12.0  11.9  13.0   5.5  13.0   4.8  15.2  11.3         5.0  10.8  16.5  16.8  18.3           12     3.0   0.0   0.1   1.0   6.5   1.0   7.2   3.2   0.7         7.0   1.2   4.5   4.8   6.3      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
total this round                                                                                                         24.1  19.0  19.1  15.0  24.0  15.5  26.0  26.9  21.1        28.0  21.7  27.5  27.8  25.7      
previous total                                                                                                           68.9  79.0  76.9  76.0  82.0  77.0  96.7  75.4  80.5       101.0  91.9  79.2  81.7  85.5      
cumulative                                                                                                               93.0  98.0  96.0  91.0 106.0  92.5 122.7 102.3 101.6       129.0 113.6 106.7 109.5 111.2      
per game (total of 15)                                                                                                    6.2   6.5   6.4   6.1   7.1   6.2   8.2   6.8   6.8         8.6   7.6   7.1   7.3   7.4      

All the home courts won in Round 3, as projected.
There are two projected road wins in Round 4.

Road wins (3 out of 15)                     Home losses                                     Differential (RW-HL)
-----------------------------------------   ---------------------------------------------   --------------------
1 Baylor          OU                        0 Baylor                                        +1 Baylor        
1 Kansas          TCU                       0 Iowa State                                    +1 Kansas        
1 West Virginia   OSU                       0 Kansas                                        +1 West Virginia 
0 Iowa State                                0 Kansas State                                   0 Iowa State    
0 Kansas State                              0 Texas                                          0 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma                                  0 Texas Tech                                     0 Texas         
0 Oklahoma State                            0 West Virginia                                  0 Texas Tech    
0 TCU                                       1 Oklahoma        BU                            -1 Oklahoma      
0 Texas                                     1 Oklahoma State  WVU                           -1 Oklahoma State
0 Texas Tech                                1 TCU             KU                            -1 TCU           

Seeing Kansas at the bottom of the conference in mental toughness shouldn't
be too big a concern.  The statistical significance of the quantity just
isn't very high, and against the weaker opponents, such as Oklahoma on
Tuesday, it actually helps a little.  Now, when we go to Lexington and
Morgantown, it might matter a bit more.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +3.40    Kansas            6.97    
TCU             +2.02    Kansas State      6.99    
Baylor          +1.56    TCU               7.07    
Oklahoma State  +1.52    Baylor            8.40    
Iowa State      +1.40    Texas Tech        8.54    
Texas Tech      +1.00    Oklahoma         10.27    
Kansas State    +0.92    West Virginia    12.62    
Kansas          +0.72    Texas            12.96    
Oklahoma        -1.21    Iowa State       14.15    
Texas           -1.38    Oklahoma State   14.36    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.81 +/- 0.77    Baylor          +0.33 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.30 +/- 0.43    Kansas State    +0.31 +/- 0.16
Baylor          +0.27 +/- 0.57    Texas           +0.06 +/- 0.35
Kansas          +0.21 +/- 0.43    West Virginia   -0.04 +/- 0.25
TCU             +0.06 +/- 0.58    Oklahoma State  -0.08 +/- 0.27
Texas Tech      -0.02 +/- 0.53    Texas Tech      -0.13 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma State  -0.06 +/- 0.99    Oklahoma        -0.20 +/- 0.24
West Virginia   -0.48 +/- 0.77    Iowa State      -0.21 +/- 0.28
Oklahoma        -0.82 +/- 0.67    TCU             -0.21 +/- 0.19
Iowa State      -0.85 +/- 0.95    Kansas          -0.23 +/- 0.20

One more game before Texas Tech gets out of the 300s in strength of schedule.
If the current Predictor rankings were to hold, by the end of the season,
Kansas will have played #1 twice (West Virginia), #2 once (Kentucky, on the
road, no less), and #3 once (Duke, on a neutral court).  Kansas should be
near the top of Division I in strength of schedule when it's all said and done.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
West Virginia   89.20   Baylor          59.93   Oklahoma State  164.93   West Virginia   +26.87   
Oklahoma State  87.71   Kansas State    62.13   Kansas          156.40   Iowa State      +15.14   
Kansas          85.47   West Virginia   62.33   West Virginia   151.53   Kansas          +14.53   
Iowa State      80.14   Texas Tech      63.67   Oklahoma        147.57   Texas Tech      +14.40   
Texas Tech      78.07   Iowa State      65.00   Iowa State      145.14   Baylor          +13.79   
TCU             76.64   TCU             66.71   TCU             143.36   Kansas State    +13.27   
Kansas State    75.40   Texas           68.13   Texas Tech      141.73   Oklahoma State  +10.50   
Oklahoma        74.57   Kansas          70.93   Texas           137.73   TCU              +9.93   
Baylor          73.71   Oklahoma        73.00   Kansas State    137.53   Oklahoma         +1.57   
Texas           69.60   Oklahoma State  77.21   Baylor          133.64   Texas            +1.47   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Oklahoma State  77.46 ( 14)
Baylor          76.96 ( 19)
Oklahoma        76.63 ( 24)
Texas           76.05 ( 28)
Kansas          75.84 ( 32)
Iowa State      73.83 ( 71)
TCU             73.75 ( 72)
West Virginia   69.38 (256)
Kansas State    69.00 (278)
Texas Tech      68.24 (306)